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2008 Fantasy Preview -- The Cincinnati Reds
2008 Fantasy Preview -- The Cincinnati Reds
By Gabe Dobmeyer | Published  03/15/2008 | 2008 Fantasy Preview
Gabe Dobmeyer
A native of  Ohio, Gabe has been playing fantasy baseball and football since the early 1990's, capturing mulitple titles and the all-important bragging rights. When push comes to shove, Gabe will admit to being a Detroit Tigers fanatic.    

View all articles by Gabe Dobmeyer
The Cincinnati Reds
  Joey Votto
Will Dusty Baker help make Joey Votto and the rest of the young Reds into contenders?

 

Catchers – David Ross, Javier Valentin

Though neither is a starting fantasy option, Ross has the ability to hit 20 home runs. Buyer beware, however, because he may only hit .215. He has a knack for not making productive outs and grounding into double plays. Valentin is a pinch hitter at this point in his career. Stay away from both these backstops.

First Base – Joey Votto, Scott Hatteberg

At this point I will give the starting nod to Votto given the fact that he seemed unfazed when he was thrust into the starting lineup late last season. He has a chance to hit .290 with 20 home runs and 70 runs batted in. In addition, he is a sleeper to swipe 15 or even 20 bags. He is a solid Rookie of the Year candidate. Hatteberg is a professional backup who hits righthanders well and is no longer in a platoon situation since Votto hits from the left side as well.

Middle Infielders – Brandon Phillips, Alex Gonzalez, Jeff Keppinger, Ryan Freel, Juan Castro

Phillips and Gonzalez are the starters, both for completely opposite reasons. Gonzalez, the shortstop, brings the leather and will likely only hit .275 with a dozen home runs and 50 runs batted in. He no longer has any speed. Though Phillips is no slouch in the field at second base, he makes his money at the plate. He went 30/30 last season, and there is good reason to believe he will do it again this year. I would go nothing less than a .320 average with 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases. He ranks only below Chase Utley at his position. Freel, also a substitute in the outfield, is a utility player who you can use only as an injury sub if he does not crack the starting lineup. Keppinger and Castro are solid backups who have little value.

Third Base – Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Freel, Jeff Keppinger

Encarnacion got the wakeup call he needed when he was sent down to AAA Louisville last season. He can back and hit .309 after the All Star break. Some thought his breakout season would have been last season, but his late surge in 2007 suggests this may be the year. It is not unrealistic to pencil him in for an average of .290 with 20 home runs and 70 runs batted in. He may also swipe a dozen bases to boot.

Outfielders – Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Norris Hopper, Ryan Freel, Jeff Keppinger, Jay Bruce

Griffey and Dunn are the starters in the corner spots, and they will bat third and fifth, respectively. Griffey can be counted on for solid numbers of: .275 batting average, 25 home runs, and 85 runs batted in. Clearly he is no longer a top-tier outfield option, but he should definitely be on your radar. Dunn should be categorized as a top 25 outfielder. Expect 40 home runs, 100 runs batted in, 100 walks, 100 runs, a .250 average, a couple stolen bases, and a ton of strikeouts. I currently give Hopper the starting nod in center field due to the .371 on-base percentage he posted last year in his 307 at-bats. He is also an excellent bunter who can absolutely fly around the bases. All things considered, whoever the starter is on opening day may not be there for long. They will be keeping the seat warm for super-prospect, 20-year-old Jay Bruce. He is a star in the making but must cut down on his strikeouts to be a consistent major league hitter.

Starting Rotation – Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Matt Belisle, Edinson Volquez, Jeremy Affeldt, Johnny Cueto

Only Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey seem guaranteed spots in the rotation. Harang is the rock here, having pitched at least 32 games and 211 innings in each of the past three seasons in Cincinnati. He is a solid No. 2 fantasy starter with numbers somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 wins, 3.75 earned run average, 1.20 WHIP, and 200 strikeouts. Arroyo will also pitch over 200 innings, especially with new manager and well-known pitcher abuser Dusty Baker. I look for him to bounce back from his down year and post solid numbers of 13 wins, 3.60 earned run average, and 150 strikeouts. Bailey should be a late-round pick who you should keep on your bench until he proves he was worth the hype. If he can develop his off-speed pitches to complement his electric fastball, his fantasy value will shoot up rapidly. He is a risky pick, but the risk/reward is definitely worth it. Cueto is also a youngster, but he should begin the season in the minors. Belisle, Volquez, and Affeldt are all sleepers, with Volquez having the most potential value.

Bullpen – Francisco Cordero, David Weathers, Jared Burton, Mike Stanton, Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, John Coutlangus, Todd Coffey, Bobby Livingston

Cordero was the big fish the Reds landed through free agency. He takes the ball from Weathers in the ninth inning, something that should have been done years ago. Cordero is a top-tier closer who is capable of saving 40 games. His earned run average will slide over 3.00 since he is now pitching in a hitter's ballpark, but expect him to strike out over a batter per inning. Burton is the only other guy in the bullpen who possesses a power arm, and the others are just situational pitchers who will be inconsistent all year. Only Weathers is a lock for holds.

Projected Lineup

Norris Hopper CF

Joey Votto 1B

Ken Griffey Jr. RF

Brandon Phillips 2B

Adam Dunn LF

Edwin Encarnacion 3B

Alex Gonzalez SS

David Ross C

Projected Rotation

Aaron Harang

Bronson Arroyo

Homer Bailey

Matt Belisle

Edinson Volquez

Closer

Francisco Cordero

Next in Line

David Weathers/Jared Burton



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