Brandon Phillips will be batting cleanup. How will that impact his stolen base totals?

National League Central

In a division where several teams carry at least a handful of players with the potential to steal upwards of 10 bases or more, the St. Louis Cardinals only player projected with double-digit steals, outfielder Colby Rasmus, was just told to pack his bags and head back to the minor leagues.  With very few players who have accomplished several years with high stolen bases in back to back seasons, we make a small adjustment in our approach to the National League Central, adjusting one of our topics to the “New” Dependable. This topic will focus on players who have accomplished, and will likely continue, the trend.

The “New” Dependable

Brandon Phillips – By now, everyone knows what type of season Phillips had at the dish; however, what impresses most fantasy managers come draft day is that he brings all five tools by adding 32 stolen bases (up from 25). Let us not also forget the ten-point increase in his batting average from 2006 to the 2007 season (.276 to .287). There is no reason to suspect that the steals will not continue, especially after learning that he will swap places in the line-up with Adam Dunn and bat clean up, essentially requiring Brandon to create offensive opportunities for his team with his legs. The change will increase his runs batted in potential; however, it also decreases the protection in the line-up he was privy to last season.

Kazuo Matsui – Here is another player that emerged in the 2007 season as a hot commodity in the fantasy world. There is an expectation for Kaz to steal 30 bases this year as well as increase in his runs total while batting in a friendly hitters ballpark in Houston. The potential for runs batted in, home runs, and batting average are all possibilities, as well. Do not expect him to blow up to a “top five” second baseman anytime soon, but he has come a long way from the high hype of his arrival to the lowly departure from New York just a few years ago.

Rickie Weeks – Barring injury, Rickie Weeks could be one of the few players that has consistently achieved at or near 20-plus steals over a multi-year period in the National League West. Rickie has increased his stolen base total every season regardless of the number of games played in a particular season and 2008 should be no different. Expect a slow start in this category due to his recent wrist injury; however, expecting at least 25 stolen bases is a safe bet.

Corey Patterson – Here is a late round steal for the stolen base category. Due to his lengthy time period as a free agent and the lack of contract offers, it appears that Corey has lost some of the “on the bubble” hype that comes with a player of his potential. Corey joins the Cincinnati Reds in hope of securing a full-time position and opportunity to put it all together. With the expectation of 60 runs, 12-15 homeruns, and 60 runs batted in, he is a great fantasy bench player that can contribute 30 steals a year. The only concern comes from prognosticator’s predictions for a batting average that hovers around .258. Corey has had great years (.297 in 2003) and some poor years (.215 in 2005) but it appears that Corey is coming into his own and should remain above .265.

Honorable Mentions: Ryan Braun (20), Corey Hart (20), and Ryan Theriot (25).

The Surprise

Michael Bourn – For all of you fantasy gurus, Michael Bourn is not a surprise. But to the average fantasy manager who works on name-recognition and previous production to build their lineups, Michael Bourn is relative unknown. Bourn, who stole ten bases in 16 games, is one of the hottest young commodities in the outfield, particularly in NL-only fantasy leagues.  He will have a rough time with his batting average as he grows accustomed to big league pitching, however his projected run potential (90) and stolen base totals (39) have many fantasy managers scratching him in as a mid-round draft choice.

Nate McLouth – Here is a player that capitalized on injuries to Jason Bay and Chris Duffy in the latter part of the 2007 season. Although he will likely make the major league roster, it is unlikely that he will see enough playing time to warrant a selection in the first 18 – 20 rounds. With the potential for upwards of 18 stolen bases and 14 home runs in limited action, it is safe to assume that he is worthy of an NL-only selection (again, in the late rounds) and has some value in deeper keeper leagues.

Tony K. Gwynn – He may share the same name as his hall-of-fame father but he does not share the same batting average to date. If he can break into the Milwaukee Brewers’ starting line-up and get some significant at bats, his run and stolen base potential (20-25) increases dramatically. You will never be able to count on Tony to push the ball out of the park with one swing; however, you can expect him to average .280 at the plate and contribute 90-plus runs and 30-plus stolen bases within a year or two. He is a definite sleeper candidate as he will contribute no less than 18 steals and bat .280 when in the line-up and has keeper written all over him for the near future.

The Decline

Alfonso Soriano – I am by no means suggesting that Soriano is not a viable source for stolen bases. I am merely suggesting that his days of 30-40 stolen bases may be past him. Alfonso is coming into an age when your speed declines and you begin to depend more on bat speed. Many will try and justify his 19 stolen base season due to injury but you will do nothing more than support my point that he is an ever-increasing injury risk with each season. It is safe to say that Alfonso will net you between 22 –25 stolen bases, but I think it is unwise to select him on draft day anticipating more.

Ryan Freel – There has always been a utility player that is so versatile that he was sought after in fantasy leagues. There is just something to be said for a player that occupies one bench slot on your roster but covers three or more positions. Ryan Freel has been that character for several years now and with injuries become more of a habit than playing time, it is safe to say that it is time to usher in a new era of utility players. Ryan is amongst an extremely crowded outfield in Cincinnati. It has become even more ever present that his utility role as an outfielder is quickly coming to an end. You can still draft Freel in the late rounds; however, even with the potential for 25 stolen bases, his recent injuries and crowded lineup depreciates Ryan’s value come draft day.

Mike Cameron – Now here is a player that can go either way. Take said player out of a lineup that could not out-hit their opponents more than they could and insert him in a young, energetic, and extremely potent Milwaukee Brewers line-up and you have the potential for a huge year, a la “Gary Matthews Jr.” in 2006. With the offensive opportunity to increase, it may and will likely decrease his stolen base potential. The team is littered with 20-plus stolen base players (Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, and even Tony Gwynn) and is likely to rely on Cameron for his defense and his pop at the plate.

Top 10 Projected Base Stealers

Michael Bourn, CF – HOU (39)

Corey Patterson, CF – CIN (30)

Brandon Phillips, 2B – CIN (29)

Kazuo Matsui, 2B – HOU (27)

Rickie Weeks, 2B – MIL (27)

Alfonso Soriano, CF – CHC (25)

Ryan Theriot, 2B – CHC (24)

Corey Hart, OF – MIL (21)

Ryan Braun, 3B – MIL (20)

Hunter Pence, OF – HOU (17)