Barry Zito has been pretty mediocre since crossing over the Bay to San Francisco. Wins will be few and far between for the lefty this season.

Catchers – Bengie Molina, Eliezer Alfonzo, Guillermo Rodriguez

Just how bad are the Giants?  So bad, that they are considering batting Bengie Molina in the cleanup slot.  Yes, the same Bengie Molina with a career .411 slugging percentage.  However, with more power than most backstops, Bengie is worth rostering in 12 team mixed leagues.  As the eldest of the Molina clan has already dealt with a quad issue this spring, it might be worth a gander at his backups.  Look who’s in the freezer, it’s uncle Eliezer Alfonzo.  Alfonzo is horrendous; let’s all look away.

First Base – Rich Aurilia, Dan Ortmeier

Yuck.  A discussion of the Giants first base situation is tied in closely with their acquisition of Jose Castillo from the Marlins.  Prior to this transaction it looked as though Rich Aurilia would be the primary resident at the hot corner, while Dan Ortmeier would be holding runners at first base.  With Castillo in the mix, things get a great deal muddier in the Giants infield.  Now with a potential time-share at first, an already ugly fantasy option just got uglier.  Stay away from Aurilia and stay away from Ortmeier in all but the deepest NL only leagues.

Middle Infielders – Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel, Eugenio Velez, Brian Bocock

When healthy, Ray Durham and Omar Vizquel should maintain their hold on the middle of the Giants infield.  Yet, the injury bug has bitten the Giants.   Durham, a very long way from his monster 2006 fantasy campaign, has been dealing with hamstring issues and the flu, and might be placed on the DL.  Vizquel, on the other hand, is recovering from knee surgery and will definitely start the season on the DL.  Thankfully, for the Giants, they employ utility infielder Kevin Frandsen, as he will provide great companionship to his teammates on the DL after rupturing his Achilles tendon this spring.  This unfortunate turn of events for the Giants is your chance to exploit the difference between real world success and fantasy success.  In this case, Eugenio Velez should get the opportunity to start the season at either one of the middle infield spots and set the base paths ablaze.  As fellow writer Kevin Burgoyne has already mentioned: Velez has the speed to warrant your consideration in deep leagues when he gets the opportunity to play.  Meanwhile, with the Jose Castillo acquisition it looks as though youngster Brian Bocock will lose an opportunity to jump from single A to The Show.  I expect the Giants to start Castillo at short until either Durham or Vizquel is healthy enough to return.  At which point he will move back to 3^rd and compete for playing time at the corners.         

Third Base – Jose Castillo, Rich Aurilia, Kevin Frandsen, Justin Leone

Our last stop on this tour of one of the cruddiest infields in baseball, third base, will be affected greatly by the health situation of the middle infielders.  When either Durham or Vizquel can join the club, Jose Castillo figures to get the majority of time at third with Aurilia providing a breather now and then.  I cannot recommend any of these players, even in the deepest of leagues.

Outfielders – Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, Rajai Davis, Fred Lewis, Nate Schierholtz

Surprisingly, the Giants outfield isn’t quite as heinous as their infield.  The upgrades in defense from Dave Roberts to Aaron Rowand in center, and from Barry Bonds to Dave Roberts in left, should at least save the Giant’s young arms a few pitches.  That doesn’t mean Brian Sabean’s big move of the off-season was a good one.  If you are expecting a repeat of Aaron Rowand’s 2007 performance, you should temper your expectations.  Rowand’s splits at Citizens Bank Part were a tantalizing .319/.368/.557 last year.  His road splits, although still respectable, were .299/.368/.475, which indicates to me that his success was due in part to one of the major’s most friendly ballparks for hitters.  That is not the case at AT&T Park, which is one of the league’s better pitching parks.  Combine this fact, with his presence in what should be the worst lineup in baseball, and it’s hard not to expect a downward correction in Rowand’s performance.  Bump him down your sheets and bid cautiously in auctions.  If he falls to a position of value, snap him up, as he is still worth owning. 

Randy Winn and Dave Roberts will flank Rowand in the outfield, both flirting with fantasy relevance as they do every year; Winn due to his famous hot streaks, and Roberts due to bouts of good health.  Consider either in deep mixed leagues, but be prepared for periods of lackluster production.  When either player gets hurt or traded, it will be time for Seth Frankel’s sleeper, Rajai Davis, to show everyone the speed we need.  While not an every day starter, Davis’ speed makes him an enticing pick in mixed leagues, even when platooning with Roberts to start the year.  Additionally, Fred Lewis will be in the mix for playing time in relief of Winn, but should not be considered for anything but the deepest of NL only leagues. 

Lastly, let’s take a moment to look at the only prospect the Giants have who is remotely close to the majors.  Nate Schierholtz is a 24-year-old, with decent power, and after hitting .330 in Fresno he finished with a .300 average for the Giants (despite a slow start). This prospect has a reputation for free swinging, but might still push one of the older outfielders out of the picture this year.  He’ll have to work for that chance, as he is one of the few outfielders that have options remaining.  It might take an injury for him to get his 2008 debut.

Starting Rotation – Barry Zito, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Noah Lowry, Jonathan Sanchez, Kevin Correia

Just when you start wondering why the Giant’s have any fans at all, we come to the most talented and exciting players on this otherwise senior, senior-circuit squad: Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.  It’s hard to say something good about these guys that hasn’t already been said.  Lincecum was a prep star, set the all time Pac-10 strikeout record, won the Golden Spike award, and was the 10^th overall pick in 2006.  He dominated hitters in his eight starts before the end of last season.  He started 2007 by with 5 brilliant starts at AAA Fresno and was called up to the bigs for good. 

Matt Cain was also a first round pick for the Giants, and though his minor league career was a bit longer, he comes with a pedigree similar to Lincecum.  He made his big league debut in 2005, and his 96 mph heater had every baseball fan salivating in anticipation of 2006.  Cain started slow in 2006, but tore it up the entire second half, winning 7 of 12 starts before showing signs of fatigue in his last 3.  In 2007 his K/9IP dropped slightly, but he made up for it with a big drop in BB/9IP and HR/9IP, which translated into an even better year for him.  Expect the 23-year-old to show continued improvement in 2008.

After the talented youngsters, the Giant’s rotation makes like Thelma & Louise and drives right off a cliff.  On the train this morning I read the thoughts of a so-called expert, and scoffed as he praised Barry Zito as undervalued.  Let me go on record and say that he is not the guy to bet on.  Maybe there is an outside chance that he rebounds, after all he plays in a good pitchers park, and the deceleration of his fastball should be mitigated by the fact that he has never been a power pitcher.  Yet, his loss to the Giants AAA affiliate Wednesday tells me what I want to know.  It’s not that Zito pitched poorly, but the support was not there, and will not be there.  Take a flier on a mediocre pitcher, but see if you can snag one that will get a few wins this year instead. 

Rounding out the rotation are Noah Lowry and Jonathan Sanchez.  Sanchez is a 25-year-old project that has bounced between the bullpen and the rotation the last two years, but he has talent and can rack up K’s.  He’s getting a chance to stick, but he’ll have to prove he can pitch effectively for multiple innings.  Take a flier on in NL only leagues.  Lowry is recovering from surgery to relieve his exertional compartment syndrome, but should be back by May and makes a decent contributor in NL only leagues.  Filling in for Lowry is Kevin Correia, a step above replacement level pitcher whose name you should at least know.

Bullpen – Brian Wilson, Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey, Vinnie Chalk, Steve Kline, Merkin Valdez

 [singing] I cut down on my walk rate, just like Brian Wilson did…yep, better control leads to better pitching, who would have thunk it.  Mr. Wilson is set to start he year as the Giant’s closer, should they find themselves with any leads this year.  He should do a respectable job of improving your rate stats even when he’s not in save situations.  Next in line right now is Tyler Walker, who returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of last season.  He poses no immediate threat to Wilson.  The only other pitcher in the pen that I feel is worth monitoring is Vinnie Chalk, who mustered some control last year and ended up posting career bests in WHIP & ERA, while picking up 5 vulture wins as well.  He’ll begin the season on the DL, but should be back soon and bears monitoring. 

Projected Lineup  

Roberts/Davis

Durham/Velez

Winn

Molina

Rowand

Aurellia

Ortmeier

Vizquel/Castillo

Projected Rotation 

Barry Zito

Matt Cain

Tim Lincecum

Noah Lowry

Jonathan Sanchez

Closer 

Brian Wilson

Next in Line 

Tyler Walker