Vernon Wells was a fantasy nightmare in 2007, Blue Jays fans and fantasy managers alike are hoping Wells will bounce back this season.
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Catchers – Gregg Zaun, Rod Barajas
The Toronto Blue Jays will not overwhelm you with talent at the catcher position. Gregg Zaun is a serviceable major league catcher but holds little to no fantasy value. Rod Barajas will start the year as the back-up catcher and at one time had promise as a fantasy starter. Both catchers are to be avoided on draft day, instead focusing on the other low-tier starters with higher ceilings, such as Dioner Navarro, Kurt Suzuki, Gerald Laird, and David Ross.
First Base – Lyle Overbay, Matt Stairs, Frank Thomas (DH)
Lyle Overbay is a first baseman that you can count on, as long as you know what to expect from him. I am comfortable prediction 70/70 (runs/runs batted in), 15-17 homeruns, and a 2.84 batting average. Matt Stairs will primarily play the left field but with age a factor, may spell Overbay at first base to give both he and Lyle a rest. He is also second on the depth chart at the DH position. In my opinion, Stairs is overrated and will likely not match his 2007 statistics. That being said, the Blue Jays are notorious “sexy” picks almost every year to make a run at the playoffs and it is usually due to solid pitching and great hitters so my expectation of Stairs may be proved to be untrue. Frank Thomas is…well, Frank Thomas. As long as your league does not penalize you for strikeouts, he is a great player to draft in the mid-to-late rounds of your draft primarily because after David Ortiz and Travis Hafner, there are not many players at the DH position that gains much recognition. He is comparable to Jim Thome. They are both “forgettable” because of their age and their position yet will give you solid value when it comes to production based on pick.
Middle Infielders – Aaron Hill, David Eckstein, John McDonald
Aaron Hill was a great surprise last year, hitting 17 homeruns while crossing the plate 85 times (runs) and surprising fantasy owners with 75 runs batted in. He did this all while maintaining a .291 batting average. He loses some fantasy value heading into the 2008 season, as he no longer qualifies for both 2B and SS. David Eckstein is a World Series MVP, yet despite this honor, is not a very fantasy viable player anymore. He has lost range on the field, potentially affecting leagues that use the error category. Do not consider David unless you are in the deepest of leagues (20 teams) or AL-Only and looking for depth at reserve or middle infielder.
Third Base – Scott Rolen (D/L), Marco Scutaro
Scott Rolen, it appears that Marco Scutaro is the Blue Jays’ starting third baseman. Marco has limited fantasy value, only improved due to the fact that he is starting; however, the return of Scott Rolens will diminish it completely. Scott Rolen has dealt with injuries for the latter part of his career and 2008 seems to be no different. Rolens is definitely at the tail end of his career and his power has all but left him. Save for a batting average and gold glove capabilities at third base, Rolens is a non-factor in the fantasy world.
Outfielders – Matt Stairs, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Shannon Stewart, Buck Coats
There is no doubt that Vernon Wells will have a bounce-back year, all but washing away the memories of his disappointing 2007 campaign. A perennial candidate for 25/90/90/10/.280, Vernon is an excellent outfielder on the lower end of the upper tier (if that makes sense!). Alex Rios heads into his magical, 27-year old year season. Armed with a new contract and a supporting cast on the offense, it appears that he is prepared to have a breakout year. Although most prognosticators believe his proto-typical 25,100,90,20/.285 is in the lurks for 2008, I expect more. I believe that when we close the books on 2008, Alex Rios will have numbers more along the lines of 30/110/100/25/.290. With Matt Stairs, I believe that he over-achieved in 2007, or at the very least, achieved the status of “over-hyped” as we head into the 2008 season. He managed to increase his homerun average from 13-15 to 21 (not since 2003 had he hit 20 and then again, not before 2000). With the roller coaster average of homeruns, this means he is likely to come back down to earth, having statistics more along the lines of 15/60/60/.265. Sorry, all you Matt Stairs' fans, I just cannot see it and would not recommending selecting him on draft day. In all likelihood, we will find that both Stairs and Shannon Stewart will platoon at left field, often spelling each other to let the other aging, veteran rest.
Starting Rotation – Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch
To say that these top two pitchers are injury-plagued is simply understated. How Roy Halladay can push out near 200 innings every season while investing several weeks on the D/L is beyond me. Add in A.J. Burnett who may have had every injury possible to a pitcher in his young career.
All that being said, this is potentially just as solid a one-two punch in the starting rotation as you will see across all of the MLB. While Halladay is a 200-inning candidate with 140-150 strikeouts, A.J. Burnett is a 180-inning candidate who could strikeout upwards of 200 batters. Dustin McGowan is a solid mid-tier pitcher as he will amass a ton of innings and get a healthy number of strikeouts and wins for his fantasy owners. It is safe to assume that 180 innings and 150 strikeouts with 12-14 wins are within reach for this young pitcher. Shaun Marcum, a reliever turned starter, will have some ups and downs this year, but all in all is a very “draftable” number four pitcher. Striking out 64 batters in 84 innings in 2007 leads Blue Jays’ fans to feel comfortable that they can compete with the Twin Towers of the A.L. East, Boston and New York. Jesse Litsch has great promise and is a great pick-up in AL-Only formats. In any other setting, it is best to sit and wait before determining if he is suitable to be on your reserve squad.
Bullpen – B.J. Ryan (D/L), Jeremy Accardo, Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Brandon League, Brian Tallet, Randy Wells, Brian Wolfe
B.J. Ryan can be one of the most dominant left-handed closers in the league… If he can stay healthy! Rushing to get back into the line-up, the signs of coming back early starting to creep up on him. J.P. Ricciardi made the decision to place him on the D/L list and name Jeremy Accardo as the closer to start the season. Jeremy filled in very nicely for Ryan when he went down with a season-ending injury in 2007, netting 30 saves and striking out 42 batters in 55 innings. Jason Frasor is likely to fill the setup role in Ryan’s absence, being relegated to the seventh inning upon his return. Frasor had a brief stint as the Blue Jays’ closer until Accardo stepped in. All in all, when, and if B.J. Ryan returns, the three-some looks to hold a lot of games and really try and make it interesting in the East.
Projected Lineup
David Eckstein
Shannon Stewart
Alex Rios
Vernon Wells
Frank Thomas
Lyle Overbay
Aaron Hill
Marco Scutaro
Greg Zaun
Projected Rotation
Roy Halladay
A.J. Burnett
Dustin McGowan
Shaun Marcum
Jesse Litsch
Closer
B.J. Ryan (D/L)
Next in Line
Jeremy Accardo**
Jason Frasor
* Will start the season as the third baseman
** Will start the season as the closer