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National League Positional Grumblings
National League Positional Grumblings
By Ray Flowers | Published  03/21/2007 | NL Positional Grumblings - (2007)
Ray Flowers
SG Senior Writer Ray Flowers'  work on baseball has been featured the past two years at SportsIllustrated with his weekly fantasy mailbag column (Ray also writes a weekly column for SI on hockey). The originator of SWIP and ABA (Average Bases Allowed), Ray often proposes counterintuitive ideas that are formed from in-depth statistical analysis that have helped lead to, amongst other things, a championship in the CBS Sportsline Experts Mixed League and a second place finish in the FSTA AL Only Experts League in 2006.
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View all articles by Ray Flowers
Spring Training battles in the National League.

 
Johnson's broken leg is taking longer to heal than originally hoped, and now it looks like he might be out until sometime in June. Owners should only target the Nats 1B late.


NL Positional Battles

Contributed By: Ray Flowers

As we enter the final weeks of spring training the fantasy draft season starts to heat up. Who will win that final roster spot? Will it be the rookie, the old man, or someone unexpected? In this article I will review some of the Spring Training battles in the National League. Some of the positions I will be discussing might already be "settled" as far as the team goes, but even if that is the case, there is still a good chance that those positions under discussion could see some serious shifting at some point especially if the chosen starter were to struggle in April.

***Spring Training stats as of March 19th, 2007.

FIRST BASE: NATIONALS

Nick Johnson (.290-23-77-100-10 in 500 ABs)

Larry Broadway (.288-15-78-60-5 in 444 ABs)

Travis Lee (.224-11-31-35-50 in 343 ABs)

Dimitri Young (.250-7-23-19-1 in 172 ABs)

Robert Fick (.266-2-9-14-1 in 128 ABs)

This battlewould be a knockout if Johnson was healthy. But as has become his M.O., that is not the case. Johnson's broken leg is taking longer to heal than originally hoped, and now it looks like he might be out until sometime in June, so only draft him late, and as a backup plan to your starter at 1B. The team was expected to turn to the youngster Broadway, but he was optioned to AAA on Sunday despite hitting .333 with a .391 OBP in spring training. That seems to leave the 1B chores to either slick fielding Travis Lee or the big stick of Young. Lee fell totally on his face last year with his worst season (unfortunately he was on my AL Only roster as my DH), and while Young faced his share of off-field issues last year, the man can still hit. So even if Young doesn't start, he will likely garner a fair amount of ABs, especially if Lee struggles (don't forget Young hit .271 with 21 HRs in 2005). Robert Fick is also in the mix, but really, why?

SECOND BASE: PIRATES

Freddy Sanchez (.344-6-85-85-3 in 582 ABs)

Jose Castillo (.253-14-65-65-4 in 518 ABs)

The team had hoped to play NL batting champion Freddy Sanchez at just one spot this year (he played 99 games at 3B, 28 at SS and 23 at 2B last year), and they chose 2B top be his home. However, he was injured on March 6th by a Rod Barajas takeout slide, something he will have to work on dealing with if he stays at second base. Sanchez knee has precluded him from playing in a spring training game ever since, but he should be back on the field this week. Castillo was the teams regular 2B last year and put up decent power numbers, though his OBP of .299 was an unacceptably low number. Castillo has been accused of visiting donut shops in the middle of the night, if you know what I mean, so the team isn't sure he has the commitment necessary to be a long term answer. Add to that the fact that he hit just .216 with 3 HRs in the second half last year, and you can see why the Pirates want Sanchez to man the spot full time. Castillo is still just 26 years-old and the teams current starting 3B is Jose Batista who hit just .235 with 110 Ks in 400 ABs last season while playing only 33 games at the hot corner (78 games in the OF). With Sanchez's versatility, Castillo could easily see substantial time at 2B this year if Sanchez is needed at 3B to cover for Batista.

THIRD BASE: DODGERS

Wilson Betemit (.263-18-53-49-3 in 373 ABs)

Andy LaRoche (.315-19-81-77-9 in 432 ABs at AA/AAA)

Wilson Betemit enters 2007 as the Dodgers starter at 3B, there is little question about that. The question is, will Betemit be consistent enough to hold the position all year. Even though he showed decent pop last season, Betemit struck out 102 times in less than 400 ABs, and unless you have Adam Dunn power, that just isn't going to get it done. LaRoche, the brother of Pirates 1B Adam, is one of the team's top youngsters and the team would love to find a way to get his stick in the lineup. Betemit is hitting only .229 this spring but LaRoche hasn't done any better sporting a .216 mark. Look for LaRoche to start the year at AAA but be the first guy the team will turn to if Betemit continues to struggle.

SHORTSTOP: ROCKIES

Troy Tulowitzki (.240-1-6-15-3 in 96 ABs)

Clint Barmes (.220-7-56-57-5 in 478 ABs)

Barmes just hasn't been the same at the plate since he hurt his shoulder a year and a half ago. He has seemingly lost his power, his average, and his contact rate has plummeted. Barmes has also hit just .258 this spring, and there have been rumors he will be sent to AAA as the team tries to trade him. Therefore, this isn't really a competition to start the year since the team has basically announced that Tulowitzki is the starter. The real question is will Troy be able to hold on to the position and excel in his rookie year? Tulowitzki, the Rockies first-round pick in the 2005 draft, hit .291-13-61-75-6 in 423 ABs at AA last year before a late season call-up to the Rockies. Troy his hitting a robust .344 in the spring but don't forget he has never had an AB at AAA and he has just 613 ABs as a professional.

CATCHERS: PHILLIES

Rod Barajas (.256-11-41-49-0 in 344 ABs in TEX)

Carlos Ruiz (.261-3-10-5-0 in 69 ABs)

Chris Coste (.328-7-32-25-0 in 198 ABs)

Rod Barajas left Texas to sign a one-year deal to catch for the Phillies for roughly $2.5 million. Barajas has recorded double digits in HRs three straight years and hit 21 longballs in 2005, the only season of his career in which re recorded 400 ABs. Barajas is also a fine defensive C, so he will likely start the season as the teams #1 option behind the dish considering he is also hitting .318 with 8 RBIs this spring. However, the team is high on Ruiz, though his glove is somewhat suspect. Over the past two season at AAA, Ruiz has hot .300 each year, and in 2006 he hit .307-16-69 in 368 ABs. The team could go with some sort of 65/35 split to start the season, especially since Barajas hit just .156 in 64 ABs last year against southpaws. Coste is basically insurance for the other two, though he might stick with the team as its last player on the bench. However, he injured his hamstring earlier this week and that certainly won't help his efforts to make the team. So much for hitting .328 last year huh?





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