C.C.'s rough start means his season is over already, right?

Scientists estimate that the average adult’s attention span ranges from six to 20 minutes. You got that? Shall I repeat? OK, good, stay with me now. This article is dedicated to you, my attention-deficit fantasy-fan. We could wait a month or two to make an assessment. If we were really patient, we would give out mid-season report cards at the All Star break. However, why wait when we can make some snap judgments after a week of play. I have statistics to back this up, based on the 4% of the season completed.  Do you think the newspapers and TV networks sample 4% of the electorate when they do their polls? Not a chance. The pearls of wisdom that I have to share with you are at least as credible as anything Katie Couric or the New York Times reports. Trust me. Disclaimer: If you detect a tone of sarcasm or hyperbole in this column it is purely intentional.

For Better

1. Nick Johnson, 1B, Nationals: Johnson looks fully recovered from missing all of last season recovering from a broken leg. Johnson is not an elite first baseman, mostly because he does not hit many homers and also because the position is deep. However, he has good value in 5x5 Roto leagues where either his OBP (.387) or OPS (.846) come into play. Johnson is better than ever. Really.

2. Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals: Pujols has played every game so far. The bum elbow hasn’t slowed him down as his .333 average and .946 OPS attest. Nothing to worry about. Obviously he will play all 162 games and lead the Cardinals back to the playoffs. No chance that the injury will wear him down and the Cards will decide to shut him down as they fall far back in the NL Central. No chance at all. Trust me.

3. Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs: He is the next Ichiro Suzuki, but with more power. The man with the last name that sounds like a porn movie is hitting .458. He is a five-tool monster. Wait, that sounds like a porn movie, again. Sorry. Obviously he will continue to scald inferior North American pitching despite their fruitless efforts to find a weakness in his swing. No doubt about it.

4. Xavier Nady, OF, Pirates: He not only won the NL Player of the Week, but Nady will continue to win it week after week through the rest of the season. Nady’s history of hitting most of his homeruns early in the season is obviously behind him. In his career, Nady has hit 73% of his homers prior to the All Star break. His 17 career homeruns in April are the most of any month. Nevertheless, you can bet that the .742 slugging percentage is sustainable for the late blooming 29-year old. Would I lie?

5. Jose Valverde, RP, Astros: Valverde will not match last year’s improbable 47 saves, but he is on pace to win nearly 40 games in relief. Valverde’s specialty is blowing saves and having the Astros make him a winner in their last at bat. Valverde has been scored upon in all three appearances for Houston, but the Astros have made him a winner twice. There is no reason at all to think ineffective pitching could cost him his job. All fantasy owners know that the closer’s job is always safe, right?

Honorable Mention
Joba Chamberlain, RP, Yankees: The awesome setup man lowered his career ERA to 0.32 with four scoreless innings so far. His only Achilles Heal is gnats. (That is “gnats” as in insects, not the Washington Nats.) Nobody will score on him until Game One of the playoffs when a plague of locusts invade Anaheim.

For Worse

1. Dmitri Young, 1B, Nationals: Young was the NL Comeback Player of the Year in 2007. His .320 average screamed “fluke” to everyone but the Washington front office. They rewarded Young with a contract so he could be insurance for Johnson. Young has been slowed by a bad back and splinters in his behind. Only two at bats so far project to about 40 for the season. On the bright side he is batting .500.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: A .200 batting average is proof that the Ellsbury experiment is a bust. A bust! Last year’s phenom is destined to become a latter day Ted Cox. Remember him? Of course you do. You can remember what happened 30 years ago, but not what you had for dinner yesterday. Ellsbury is locked in a ruinous job share with Coco Crisp that will destroy the fantasy value of both. No reason to hold on to Ellsbury for the inevitable trade of Crisp. None at all. Trust me.

3. Hunter Pence, OF, Astros: Last year the 25-year-old was a quintuple threat in Roto leagues. This year, he is a has-been. No way he can recover from a .171 average and an absurdly low .400 OPS. It cannot be long before Pence starts to share time with Jose Cruz, Jr. Press the panic button.

4. C.C. Sabathia, SP, Indians: Last year’s AL Cy Young winner will never see the sixth inning in 2008. That should be clear from his first two starts. He hit the wall after 5.1 innings in both starts. Seven walks in 10.2 innings is a sign of an irreversible decline. The fine control and excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios of the past two years are just that --- in the past. Abandon all hope.

5. Trevor Hoffman, RP, Padres: The future Hall of Famer has converted only two of his last five save chances, going back to last season. Hoffman’s jitters in crunch time have finally leaked into his regular season. Hoffman has a lifetime ERA of 5.66 in October, including both regular season and post-season. That’s nearly three runs worse than his career mark of 2.77. Heath Bell will be nipping at his heals. Hoffman is a veteran closer on a contending team. Time to give up on him, right?

Dishonorable Mention

Miguel Cabrera, 3B and Dontrelle Willis, SP, Tigers: A sore quad and the adjustment to a new league will wreck Cabrera. His average (.111) is exactly 200 points below his lifetime mark. Willis was nearly unhittable in his first start. Unfortunately, a clubhouse prankster told Willis it was “opposite day” and he refused to throw a strike. Seven walks, zero strikeouts and one hit later Willis was a loser. This winless Tigers are a disaster in the making. The terrific resume of Cabrera and the history of fast starts by Willis are no comfort to the paranoid fantasy fan. Cabrera and Willis, at 25 and 26 years of age, respectively, are surely past their primes.

Now for the sarcasm-free content: If you made it this far, your attention span is more than adequate. Now reread the article, from the bottom up and follow the opposite advice.