Can Carl Crawford and his five-tool fantasy goodness help the Rays contend in the AL East?

Catchers – Dioner Navarro, Shawn Riggans

Dioner Navaro is a catcher that will be an available free agent in most leagues; however, when considering leagues that require two starting catchers or if your primary catcher sustains an injury, he is someone you should consider. Navarro is capable of producing 12 homeruns, and anywhere from 55-60 runs/runs batted in the Rays lineup, all while sustaining a batting average of .275. He may only swipe two bags, but if you are looking for a great free agent replacement, and the well-known “average” collectors such as A.J. Pierzynski, Ramon Hernendez, and Jason Varitek are not available, Navarro will be.  It is expected that Navarro will take as few days off as possible, limiting Shawn Riggans’ opportunities, not that he is expected to do more than back up on the days Navarro needs off. Riggans holds no fantasy value at this time.

First Base – Carlos Pena, Eric Hinske

Can Carlos Pena continue to show the power and plate presence that has long been expected from this baseball player out of Haverhill, MA (my hometown)? Many fantasy managers hope so. I, personally, will not draft a guy who has had the type of breakout year Pena had in the 2007 season. Let someone else take a risk on reduced production, or at the least, downgrade expectations to 30 homeruns, 90 runs, 95 runs batted in, and keep the batting average the same, roughly .265.  Eric Hinske was rookie of the year in the American League, what seem like ages ago, and has long since lost any fantasy value.

Middle Infielders – Akinori Iwamura, Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist, Elliot Johnson

Akinori Iwamura came out like a thunderstorm in the early part of 2007.  However, due to injury it was short lived. This should be a solid season for Iwamura, even though there are some growing pains that will occur due to his move to second base this year. Hopefully, the fielding is solid right from the start, and if not, it does not affect him psychologically or at the plate.   Jason Bartlett is another player that will only be drafted in larger leagues, but has some fantasy value, mostly in the category of stolen bases. It is safe to assume that if he stays healthy, he can generate 25 or so stolen bases. He will not hurt you in the batting average, and will definitely put up enough numbers in the runs and homeruns categories to make him a viable option as a middle infielder. You can also consider him a great “trade and pick-up”(trading away your starting shortstop for other weaknesses in your line-up, then picking him up off of the waiver wire.)  Both Zobrist (15-day DL) and Elliot Johnson can hold some fantasy value as they have multiple position qualifications in most fantasy league hosting sites. If you are in an AL-Only or deep mixed league, then Johnson would be the better pick as he is more likely to take away at bats from starters, since he is on the depth chart for 2B, SS, 3B, and CF.

Third Base – Willy Aybar, Eric Hinske

This is a very talented starting outfield. Carl Crawford will definitely be drafted early in all mixed and AL-Only fantasy formats. He is a five-tool athlete that will make any fantasy manager happy, especially in 5 X 5 leagues. B.J. Upton is another player that has shown he is worth drafting early as he brings all five categories to life for your fantasy team. Upton made a complete transition to centerfield, but will quality for both OF and 2B in almost every fantasy game out there.  Jonny Gomes will likely share duties with the veteran preference of Cliff Floyd.  Both have mid-range power, decent batting averages, and the ability to generate both runs and runs batted in. When one is in the field, it is almost a guarantee that the other will be the DH.  With Upton and Crawford, the difference will be more power from B.J., more stolen bases from Crawford. It is a toss up as to which one you would prefer, likely leaning towards Crawford as it is easier to find power than it is to find speed in the later rounds of a draft. With Gomes and Floyd, you are looking at more power from Gomes, possibly 20 homeruns, while Floyd will generate a better batting average, and with the DH position he will rest  his older, veteran body, which may aid a resurgence in power.

Starting Rotation – Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel

There is no doubt that youth and inexperience dominates this starting rotation; however, what they lack in experience, they more than make up with talent. Scott Kazmir will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come as the ace on this staff. Although he does yield plenty of walks, and has a higher earned run average than one would like, his ability to go 200 strong innings, and garner upwards of 200 strikeouts in a season, is hard to turn away from on draft day.  James Shields has also shown that strikeouts and innings pitched are going to be his two strongest categories. With more experience, and likely more control, as well as the reinvention of the team’s batting lineup, Shields could generate 4-5 more wins and lower his era by 20-30 points, improving on his production from the 2007 season. Jumps like that would push him statistically close to any other number 2 pitcher around the major leagues.  Matt Garza, the young pitcher acquired in the Delmon Young trade, has already proven to everyone in the organization that he was worth all they paid for him. Garza, slated as the number three pitcher in the rotation, has shown poise on the rubber and control of all his pitches that should have Rays’ fans happy for years to come.  Andy Sonnanstine does not have lightening stuff, but has shown that he can be a serviceable starter in the major leagues. Edwin Jackson, once a top Dodgers prospect has lost all fantasy value as he has yet to reach even close to the expectations that were set upon his arrival to the big leagues. Jason Hammell will likely be relegated to a long relief role when Kazmir returns from his injury, and has no fantasy value, other than potentially a few starts in the month of April and in leagues that reward teams that use true middle relievers.

Bullpen – Troy Percival, Dan Wheeler, Al Reyes, Gary Glover, Trevor Miller, Scott Dohmann, J.P. Howell

The Tampa Bay Rays have the talent to close games out. With Dan Wheeler and Al Reyes controlling the mound in the seventh and eighth innings, and Troy Percival handling the job of closer, it is likely that this team will be in contention in a lot of close games this year.  The rest of the staff has much to prove, but in all likelihood, will have plenty of time to work on it throughout the year. Simply put, there are several pitchers in the starting rotation that will pitch over 180 innings, and the solidity of the final three in the bullpen leaves very little mop up work to be performed. To suspect the bullpen is to be expected, mostly due to the lack of age and experience from the middle relievers and specialists, as well as the advanced age of the three most stable figures in the bullpen.

Projected Lineup

Akinori Iwamura

Carl Crawford

Carlos Pena

B.J. Upton

Jonny Gomes

Willy Aybar

Jason Bartlett

Dioner Navarro

Projected Rotation

Scott Kazmir (D/L)

James Shields

 Matt Garza

Andy Sonnanstine

Edwin Jackson

Jason Hammel

Closer

Troy Percival

Next in Line

Al Reyes

Dan Wheeler