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For Better, For Worse -- April 17, 2008
For Better, For Worse -- April 17, 2008
By John Rakowski | Published  04/17/2008 | For Better, For Worse -- (2008)
John Rakowski
A life-long baseball and football fan, John has been a contributor to Sports  Grumblings since 1997.  John also has experience in brodacst radio, going back to his days as a newscaster at Fordham University's famous WFUV station, as well as guest sports at various sports talk radio stations around the country. John currently is the co-host of Gridiron Grumblings Live!.

In 2007, John was the recipient of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) award for Best Fantasy Football Series, for his outstanding column Snap, Crackle and Pop. 

View all articles by John Rakowski
Buried Treasure
  Johnny Cueto -- Fantasy Baseball
Need some strikeouts? Johnny Cueto is packing them.

What happened to David Ortiz? With only five hits on the season, he is off to the worst start of his career. I have a theory. The past two days the front-page story in the New York Post has been the discovery of a Boston Red Sox jersey buried in the concrete of the new Yankee Stadium. Apparently, a construction worker (and Red Sox fan) wanted to put a hex on the house that A-Rod built. The buried jersey was a no. 34 Ortiz model. Maybe, just maybe, the curse backfired. Ortiz looks like he has concrete in his swing. At .104, Big Papi is not even hitting Mrs. Ortiz’ weight.

Patience is in order at this point of the season. Ortiz has such a tremendous résumé; I have to think he will bounce back. It is worth feeling out Ortiz owners to see if they are willing to listen to offers with his stock down.

Ortiz is one of the more extreme examples of the roller coaster ride of April stats. It’s not all bad news, however. There are a number of undrafted or low-drafted players off to torrid starts. All provide at least some short-term help for your fantasy squad. The “better” provide that and more with the potential to contribute for the rest of the season.

For Better

1. Johnny Cueto, Starting Pitcher, Cincinnati Reds: The 1-1 record and the 3.72 ERA are nothing special, but Cueto has otherworldly stats in strikeouts and WHIP. The 22-year old rookie has struck out 24 batters in 19.1 innings and has a tiny 0.62 WHIP. Cueto misses bats but still hits the catcher’s mitt. Cueto has a K-to-walk ratio of 24:1. While this is not a fantasy stat of note, it does contribute to a low WHIP. Last year in the minors, Cueto walked only 34 in 161.1 innings and had a WHIP of 1.12.

2. Mark Reynolds, Third Base, Arizona Diamondbacks: Reynolds’ stock skyrocketed after the first week of the season. He went from being undrafted in many leagues to 100% ownership. He has cooled off a little in the past week, but he still leads the National League in home runs and RBI. Reynolds looks like he could hit 30 home runs without even trying.

3. Joe Crede, Third Base, Chicago White Sox: Crede had to start fast and he did. This staved off a challenge from Josh Fields. While Fields cools his heals in Triple-A Charlotte, Crede leads the American League in RBI. Eleven of Crede’s fifteen RBI have occurred in three games, courtesy of two grand slams. Chicago tried to trade Crede in the off-season, but nobody would touch him after an injury-shortened season where he hit only .216.  Chicago may still want to deal Crede if they fall out of contention. Crede’s upside is not comparable to Reynolds’, but he could approach 30 home runs if healthy.

4. Jeff Keppinger, Shortstop, Cincinnati Reds: Keppinger is getting hard to ignore. A .320 hitter with SS and 3B ratings in most leagues, he is one of the hot pick-ups in fantasy. Keppinger could always hit – you just never knew if he would play. So far Keppinger has played in every game for Cincinnati. The shortstop job is his for a few weeks while Alex Gonzalez is on the DL. I think Keepinger’s bat will keep him somewhere in the Reds lineup. Grab him if he is still available, and do not be afraid to start him in your weekly H2H leagues.

5. Ryan Ludwick, Outfield, St. Louis Cardinals: Ludwick is not as well known as fellow Cardinal outfielders Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan. He is available in most fantasy leagues despite having stats (.343 batting average, 1.210 OPS) that compare favorably with his better-known teammates. Ludwick is hot, having hit homeruns in each of his last three games. The power is no fluke – Ludwick will be good for 25-30 HR in a full season.

For Worse

1. Brian Bannister, Starting Pitcher, Kansas City Royals: Last Sunday, Bannister was named the co-winner of the American League Player of the Week. The 27-year-old Bannister has three wins on the season, a microscopic 0.86 ERA, and a 0.71 WHIP. Nevertheless, there is a ceiling to Bannister’s fantasy value. He pitches to too much contact to maintain a good WHIP. A high 3 / low 4 ERA would seem more in line with Bannister’s skills. Put him on the Red Sox or Yankees and he would win 18 games. With the Royals, he should be a 14 game winner. Good for the Kansas City, but no so great for fantasy if that is the only category Bannister is good for. I would rather have a pitcher like Ian Snell, who may not win as many but will strike out more batters.

2. Wandy Rodriguez, Starting Pitcher, Houston Astros: Rodriguez’ stats are skewed favorably in the early going. He has a 2.33 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 19.1 innings. The reason for the skewing is that he has pitched two out of three games at home. For whatever reason, Rodriguez pitches significantly better in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. Rodriguez is a lifetime 18-13 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.33 WHIP at MMP. Everywhere else, he is 11-20 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. In his last start, at PETCO Park, Rodriguez pitched poorly. Ironically, PETCO is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. Pick Rodriguez up for his next start, this Saturday, at home, and then dump him. He is not good enough to keep as an every-other-start pitcher.

3. Angel Pagan, Outfield, New York Mets: The Mets acquired the 26-year-old Pagan as insurance for Moises Alou. Alou’s spring training injury presented Pagan with a great opportunity, and he has been the Mets’ best player this season. Pagan leads New York in average (.385), slugging (.513) and RBI (10) and is second in runs scored (9). Pagan has been so good, that he has kept Endy Chavez, a pretty decent outfielder, glued to the bench. As a short-term investment, you can use the hot Pagan while Alou slowly heals. Pagan will be good in H2H leagues for the next couple of weeks.

4. Ryan Church, Outfield, New York Mets: Church is getting to play against both righties and lefties this season. His reputation in Washington was that he could not hit southpaws. This year Church is hitting .286 against lefties and .326 overall.  Before you consider picking up Church, know that he has sacrificed power for average. He has only two extra-base hits and a low .419 slugging percentage. Pagan is a better fantasy option, at least in the short-term.

5. Gabe Kapler, Outfield, Milwaukee Brewers: Kapler was retired last year and managing in the minors before he gave playing one more shot. Kapler is hitting .423 and slugging .962 for the Brewers. Kapler was never much of a power hitter in his prime, but the 32-year-old is second on the Brewers with four home runs, which is four more than Prince Fielder has. Kapler is in a similar situation to Pagan, in that he is holding a spot while the starter is unavailable. In this case, Mike Cameron is serving out a 25-game suspension. Cameron will be eligible to return once Milwaukee has played its 25th game. Barring a rainout, Cameron will be back on April 29, and Kapler will go to the bench. The difference between Pagan and Kapler is that there is no guarantee that Alou comes back according to schedule. The shelf life for Kapler is shorter.



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