How will the new Nationals Park affect Nick Johnson's stats?

No Bats for Nats

"Washington, first in war, first in peace, and last in the American League."  That’s what they used to say about the Washington Senators, perennial doormats in the junior circuit.  The Washington Nationals are having a retro-season where they are imitating their forefathers in D.C.  Despite opening and christening a gorgeous new field, Nationals Park, the Nats have stumbled out of the gate.  The Nats are 5-15 – the worst record in baseball. At this pace they would eclipse the mark of futility set by the Senators in 1904. That team finished a Washington-worst 38-113.

From a fantasy perspective, the Nationals have been a dead-zone since they left Montreal.  One reason was their old park, the cavernous RFK stadium.  RFK was the hardest park to hit home runs in last season, and was one of the toughest parks to score runs in each of the last three seasons.  You had to assume that Washington hitters would get a boost playing in less hostile environment.    After seven home games, the early indications are that Nationals Park is a much better place to hit.  So far, it’s the sixth-best park to hit homeruns, and the ninth-best park to score runs.  

Thus far, the Nationals Park boost applies only to the visiting batters.  Why can’t the Nats hit? They are at .227 as a team, dead last in baseball. They are near the bottom of every offensive category, including steals (25th), runs (27th), RBI (27th), OBP (25th) and slugging (30th).   The ballpark is no longer an excuse.  Too much youth?  Or maybe they’re just bad?  Maybe last year’s 73-win team overachieved?

Every major league team has several players that are fantasy material.  In the case of Washington, nearly all of them are in the throes of a season-long slump.  There are still a few (dim) rays of light and buy-low opportunities.

For Better

1. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals: Of all the Nats, Zimmerman has caused the most aggravation for fantasy owners.   He hit 24 and 20 homers the last two seasons at RFK, so the consensus was that Zimmerman would be primed for a big 2008.  Sadly, Zimmerman is hitting only .154 at home.  Overall he is hitting .226 with only 2 HR.  In his last five games, Zimmerman is 7 for 24 – that’s better.  The 23-year old has a lot of talent and Washington manager Manny Acta will give him a long leash. It’s only a matter of time before he emerges from his funk and I recommend him as a buy-low opportunity.
2. Nick Johnson, 1B, Nationals: Johnson was an under-rated fantasy performer before his leg injury in 2007.   He plays at a deep position and hits fewer homers than most other first basemen.  When right, Johnson will walk a ton and have a high OPS.  He hits a lot of doubles, which partially makes up for the homeruns. Johnson is currently hitting only .237, but his OBP is an excellent .395.  Johnson’s .853 OPS is better than that of Todd Helton, Billy Butler, Adrian Gonzalez and James Loney, all of whom are owned in more leagues than Johnson.  Johnson is a good player in 5x5 Roto leagues, and he figures to raise his average at least 30-40 points.
3. Wily Mo Pena, OF, Nationals: Pena hit over one hundred points better on the road last year than he did at RFK. He also hit ten of his 13 HR on the road.   That’s what made Pena an intriguing sleeper pick until he got hurt in spring training. He returned about a week ago and has had a rough time so far with only three hits in 30 at bats.   The 26-year old Pena has power and will hit 30 HR if given 500 at bats.  Keep Pena on your watch list.
4. Felipe Lopez, 2B/SS/OF, Nationals: Lopez looked like a fantasy star a couple of years ago.  In the 2005-2006 seasons, he averaged 17 HR, 30 SB, a .282 average and 98 runs scored as a middle infielder.  Last year, his first full year in Washington, things began to fall apart for him and he got in Acta’s doghouse.  Lopez started 2008 on the bench behind Ronnie Belliard.  Lately Lopez has been playing semi-regularly, appearing at 2B and in the outfield.  Lopez is only 27, so he is worth keeping an eye on for his versatility and speed.

For Worse

1. Cristian Guzman, SS, Nationals: Guzman has been the only hot hitter in D.C. The veteran shortstop leads the Nationals with a .321 average, 2 HR, 14 runs and an.867 OPS.   Fantasy fans have noticed and Guzman has been plucked off the free agent wire in nearly half the leagues.   This hot streak will certainly subside.  The 30-year old last played a full season in 2005, when he hit .219.  He doesn’t steal much anymore, and has little power.  His lifetime average is .264, which is about where he should be by the end of the season.
2. Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: Milledge is a six-pack: a potential 5-tool player plus a head case.  The Mets got rid of his immaturity and his antics even though he has lots of natural ability.   The Nats will let the 23-year old mature without the stress and pressure of New York.  Milledge is hitting .273 with 1 HR, 2 SB and a .718 OPS.  That’s good compared to his teammates, but still not good enough to help you in a deep fantasy league.  The power and steals will eventually come, but it may not be this year.  Milledge has never played as many as 60 games in a season and he still has a lot to learn.  Though he is owned in 75% of leagues, it’s not reflective of his current fantasy value.
3. Austin Kearns, OF, Nationals: Kearns dipped down near the Mendoza line last week, before getting back up to .229 — still feeble.  Last season Kearns hit .228 at RFK, but .301 on the road. This year his splits are .190 at home and .245 on the road.  Kearns has some power and he will walk a little to help his OBP and OPS.  The whole package, even assuming a bounce-back, adds up to a marginal fantasy performer.
4. Chad Cordero, RP, Nationals:  OK, I’m cheating here. Cordero’s situation has nothing to do with Nationals Park, but I would be remiss if I failed to comment on it.  Cordero has missed time on the DL with tendonitis in his pitching shoulder.  He has pitched three scoreless innings since returning, but there are danger signs.  Most disturbing is a dramatic loss of velocity.  Cordero’s fastball has been down significantly, to the mid-80s. He’s not ready to close games yet, and the real test will be when he does.  What you have in Cordeo is a setup man, that’s on a horrible team, with health issues. That’s three strikes.

John Rakowski is a senior writer for SportsGrumblings.com, a fantasy sports portal. John is a 2007 winner of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association award for journalistic excellence, for his "Snap, Crackle and Pop" column. Please visit Sports Grumblings for all your fantasy baseball needs, so you can DOMINATE your league this season!