Michael Bourn has all the makings of an elite base stealing machine.

The Art of Stealing Bases

In this week’s addition of Burning up the Bases, I use my own statistical review to rank the quality and ability of the major league players regarding their base stealing ability. The statistical categories I have used for my scoring are number of stolen bases vs. the number of times caught, the base stealer’s success rate, the percentage of stolen bases per at-bat, and the percentage of stolen bases per hit.

I elected to not compare on-base percentage, batting average, and number of at-bats as base statistics so that I can eliminate the starter vs. utility/bench role players. This decision will also minimize the plate presence factor and focus more on the speed and knowledge of the stolen base to ultimately rank these players.

1. Michael Bourn – We have used such catch phrases as “Bourn to run” and “The Bourn Supremacy” to describe the talent of Michael Bourn, but the statistics speak for themselves. With 82 at-bats, Bourn has stolen a league leading 13 bases (100% success rate) in this early 2008 season. He ranks second overall in percentage of stolen bases per at bat (15.85%) and stolen bases per hit (81.25%), with only Rajai Davis of the Oakland Athletics. Bourn has a lot to learn when it comes to plate presence, but there is no doubt that his overall base stealing ability allows me to rank him as top of the class.
   
2. Jacoby Ellsbury – There was so much hype regarding this young outfield prospect that even his early season troubles at the plate could not discourage either the Red Sox organization or their faithful fan base. In 75 at-bats, Ellsbury has successfully stolen all eight of the bases he has attempted in 2008 and has one stolen base for every 10 at-bats. There is no doubt that Ellsbury is using his playing time wisely while Coco Crisp is on the disabled list, all but insuring that he will see the majority of starts even when Crisp returns to the active lineup.
   
3. Carlos Gomez – Carlos Gomez has been mentioned in nearly every article that I have written this season and with good reason; the kid can flat out fly and is second in the league with 10 stolen bases. He drops to third because of the injury factor (calf injury), the lack of offensive production in comparison to what Ellsbury receives from the Red Sox (not counting the recent sweep by the Tampa Bay Rays), and the fact that he has a success factor of 90% compared to the to previous players mentioned before him. All that said, Gomez, who nearly steals a base every other hit (41.67%), is prepared to be among the league’s top thieves of the base paths for years to come.
   
4. Luis Castillo – Remember, this is about the quality of their technique and the statistics to back it up. Since his off-season knee surgery, Luis Castillo has again entered the world of speed. Although he has only six stolen bases thus far, he has demonstrated that when he does get the green flag, he is going to end up in scoring position (100% success rate). With one less (74) at-bat than Ellsbury (75), Castillo is only two points behind the number of steals per at-bat (.8).
   
5. Rajai Davis – Recently traded to the Oakland Athletics, Rajai Davis brings his exceptional speed and base stealing techniques to the other side of the battle of the bay. With only 25 at-bats, Davis was a perfect 4-for-4 in stolen base attempts. He has the highest hits/stolen base ration in the league to date as well as first overall in stolen bases per plate appearance. Unfortunately, he has an extremely low on-base percentage and batting average, which has an overall affect on his fantasy value. When it comes to base stealing though, he is among the best of the league.
   
6. Willy Taveras – With eight stolen bases in 81 plate appearances, Willy Taveras has proven over the past few years that he is absolute threat to steal a base, proven by his 36.36% stolen base to hit ratio. He has been picked off once this year, which affects his quality of technique, but still has an 87.5% success rate and will continue to push for his share of stolen base stardom. To date, Taveras ranks seventh overall in stolen bases per at bat, stealing a base for every ten plate appearances.
   
7. Hanley Ramirez – Easily the most gifted all-around of the players that have been mentioned in this list so far, Hanley Ramirez has a rare talent of speed and power. Ramirez has nine stolen bases, third overall, and has a stolen base for very 8.41 at-bats. He too has been caught stealing (88.89% success rate) but his ability to steal a base has shown that he has all the techniques necessary to spring board over several of the players that are currently placing between third and sixth. Hanley has 35 hits to date and has a stolen base percentage, guaranteeing his fantasy owners a stolen base per every four at-bats (25.71%). Look for Ramirez to climb up these ranks as the season progresses.
   
8. Juan Pierre – Long thought of as a one-trick pony, Pierre has shown that he is very good at that trick. With only 52 at-bats this season, he has still stolen six bases to date. The key to this statistic and subsequently the reason why he is losing playing time is that he is losing his step. Pierre has an 83.33% success rate, having been caught once all ready this season but he still ranks among the elite base stealers of the league when you compare the number of steals to the number of at-bats (11.54%). That statistic ranks third overall and matches his third overall ranking with his percentage of stolen bases per hit (46.15%). The key for Pierre at this point of his career is trying to get in the game as much as possible so that he can retain some relevance to the fantasy world.
   
9. Maicer Izturis – Izturis has been very successful so far this season with five stolen bases in five attempts. With 71 at-bats, he has capitalized on the opportunity to highlight his speed. With a stolen base 36% of the time that he gets a hit and a stolen base every seven at-bats, Izturis joins the top ten of stolen base artists and makes him a worthy candidate for waiver wire considerations in 5x5 leagues, especially the deeper leagues.
   
10. Grady Sizemore – Rounding out the top ten base-stealing artists is Grady Sizemore. With seven stolen bases in eight attempts (85.71%), Sizemore has proven over the past three years that he is four-category fantasy outfielder. His batting average prevents him from being a true five-tool player; he still ranks among the top-tier outfielders taken on draft day. With a stolen base for every four hits (28%) and a stolen base per every 7.45 at-bats, Sizemore will be a major reason why the Cleveland Indians should be in contention for the playoffs come September.
    

There are many top-tier base stealers that did not make the list and I am sure that we can debate on the quality of the players and their value on their teams and in the fantasy world. Based on the statistics reviewed alone, the above-mentioned players have the statistics to show that they have some of the best-tuned techniques and speed to rank among the best.

There are several players such as Brian Roberts, Carl Crawford, Ichiro Suzuki, and Chone Figgins, amongst others, that you can argue should be on this list but the statistics to date have shown that they have been less successful and/or less likely to run than they have in previous years. There is no doubt that this list will drastically change the next time we run this setup; however, right now they simply do not make the grade on statistical merit, only name-sake.