ADP; What is It, and How Do I Use It?
Contributed By: Ray Flowers

Draft season is in full-swing right now, and many of you may have even already held your draft. While this article will focus on a tool used to help in preparation for your draft, the player information that I will be discussing is valuable even if your draft has already concluded. So sit back, grab a cold one, and prepare to be dazzled by Average Draft Position.

WHAT IS ADP?

Average Draft Position, or ADP, is a tool that is used to help get a consensus on what value is being placed on players. Is Jason Bay being drafted before Bobby Abreu? Are people higher on Todd Jones or Joel Zumaya in the pen in Detroit? At what point in a draft are the second tier of SS going? ADP can help to answer that question, especially since it doesn't have to be a static tool but one that can evolve as more information becomes available.

ADP is, simply put, the Average Draft Position of a certain player. There are a bunch of areas that put this information together, but one of the best sites online is MockDraftCentral.com. You can make your way over there right now and see that they have information recorded for 296 drafts that have been conducted on their site, using the standard 5x5 format, over the past week (March 15-22). Let's take a look at one player to illustrate what ADP is.

Derek Jeter was drafted in all 296 drafts that were recorded (big shocker there). We all know that Jeter is a top pick this season, but is he a first or second round type guy? Well, according to the draft information at MockDraftCentral, Jeter was drafted as early as 13^th ad as late as 25^th in another. So what is done next is some simple math. Every Jeter draft pick from the 296 drafts are added together, and then divided by 296, to come up with the average spot that Jeter was taken which turns out to be 17.85. This means that, on average, Jeter was taken with the 17.85^th pick in each draft. Of course that number is illogical cause you can't take someone with any fraction of a whole number, but ADP is an "average" so remember you will get decimal points if you actually figure out the mathematics. An easier way to state this is to say that Jeter has the 16^th lowest ADP average, meaning that Jeter is being drafted, on average, as the 16^th player overall (i.e. his 17.85 ADP is the 16^th lowest of any player).

Simple right? In what follows I will analyze a few of the players being drafted according to their ADP values, and tell you whether or nor they are being drafted too early or too late.

PLAYERS DRAFTED TOO EARLY

Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI (.313-58-149-104-0).
ADP: 5^th overall

I have already gone into great detail as to why I think this is far too early for the burly slugger. To read my exposition on that point see: Why Ryan Howard is NOT a Top-10 pick.

Brandon Phillips, 2B, CIN (.276-17-75-65-25)

ADP: 91^st overall

Phillips had great numbers last year, but much like Hanley Ramirez below, his track record doesn't necessarily support last year's outburst. Sure the 25 SBs are great, and he was caught only twice, but he only scored 65 runs and hit just .243 after the all-star break. In addition, while his 75 RBIs look strong for a 2B, he had one week where he went nuts with 17 of them coming in one 7-game stretch leaving him with a total of 58 RBIs in his other 142 games played. I'm not willing to say he has no chance to repeat last year's numbers, but 91^st overall is way, way too early to make a move on him, especially when you consider the ADPs of the following second basemen: Josh Barfield (147), Ian Kinsler (154), Orlando Hudson (215) and Marcus Giles (217).

Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA (.292-17-59-119-51)

ADP: 28^th overall
I realize steals are the scarcest offensive statistic measured in standard fantasy baseball games, and I also realize that top-tier middle infielders are also pretty scarce. There are two ways to look at this. (A) Ramirez numbers last season were almost as good as top-5 pick Jose Reyes, so getting Hanley this late is a steal (pun intended). (B) Ramirez was too good, too soon last year. His BB/K ratio was poor (0.44), he struck out 128 times, he had never hit more than 8 HRs in a season and he had never stolen more than 36 bases in a season. Since Ramirez never produced a minor league season remotely equivalent to his first big league year, I would be pretty surprised if he came within 90% of what he did last year. Throw in the fact that Michael Young (37^th) and Rafael Furcal (40^th) can be drafted basically a round later, and the value just isn't there for Hanley in my eyes. Note: This ADP info was prior to Furcal's ankle injury.

Frank Thomas, DH, TOR (.270-39-114-77-0)

ADP: 101^st overall

Why anyone would draft this guy this early is simply beyond me. First of all, this is really early to lock yourself in at the Utility spot. By choosing Thomas, what happens if a guy like Pat Burrell slips through and you find him available with the 160^th pick (his ADP is actually 149). If your OF is already full, can you afford to take Burrell as insurance when you know you have Thomas already locked in at UT and you still have other holes to fill in your starting lineup? Secondly, Thomas played just 108 games in 2004-05, he hasn't hit over .275 since 2000, and he has played in fewer than 75 games in three of the past six seasons. Throw in his advancing age, he will be 39 in May, and there is no way I'm taking this sloth at this point of a draft no matter how much power he posses.

Chris Young, OF, ARI (.243-2-10-10-2)

ADP: 219^th overall

OK, so the 219^th pick isn't that early, but this guy has only 70 major league ABs. Young does possess 20/20 potential, he did hit .276-21-77-78-17 in 100 games at AAA last year, but he is still a raw player despite his tremendous physical gifts. There is always the chance that he could struggle and either find a spot on the bench or be sent back to AAA, but the main reason he is listed here is because of a handful of other OFs that are being drafted later: Milton Bradley (229), Chris Burke (237…discussed below), Brian Giles (239), Johnny Gomes (245), Xavier Nady (250) and David DeJesus (286) to name just a few. Young might outperform them all, but they have had varying levels of success at the major league level, something Young has not experienced yet.

Chien-Ming Wang, SP, NYY (19-6, 3.63 ERA, 78 Ks, 1.31 WHIP)

ADP: 113^th overall

Why is the guy who led baseball in wins last year on this list? First off, wins are the most difficult fantasy number to project for pitchers since the way the team hits, the way the relievers pitch etc. influence whether or not a team earns a win. Second, Wang gets tons of groundballs, but as a result his K total is putrid. In fact, the following AL relievers had more Ks than Wang last season: Frod, J.J. Putz, Joe Nathan, B.J. Ryan and Bobby Jenks to name a few. Third, Wang's 1.31 WHIP and his inability to miss bats doesn't support a 3.63 ERA meaning that his ERA stands a much better chance of being above 4.00 this year, than it does of being at 3.63 or below. Fourth, since Wang is sub par in Ks and merely average in WHIP, why would you take him before any of the following list of hurlers: Jason Schmidt (118), Dan Haren (123), Curt Schilling (125) or Chris Capuano (145)?

PLAYERS DRAFTED TOO LATE

Hank Blalock, 3B, TEX (.266-16-89-76-1)

ADP: 205^th overall

OK, Blalock is coming off the worst year of his career and he owns a career batting average of just .221 off lefties (.618 OPS). So you might be saying to yourself this is right where he should be drafted, but I would disagree. First off, Blalock has at least 89 RBIs in each of the past four seasons and that marks him as the only AL 3B to have done that (Aramis Ramirez is the only one to have done it in the NL). Second, Blalock has averaged 26 HRs the past four years or more than Ryan Zimmerman hit last year (20) or Scott Rolen has averaged over the same span (22 per season). Third, Blalock hurt his shoulder in August last year which led to his depressed power numbers in the second half. Subsequently he had offseason shoulder surgery to repair the damage, and he appears to be fine. You go ahead and draft Mark Teahen with the 139^th pick as I will be more than happy to wait 66 more picks to take Blalock. So tell me again, how is Blalock the 19^th 3B being taken this year?

Chris Burke, 2B/OF, HOU (.276-9-40-58-11)

ADP: 235^th overall

Burke will play CF this year though he still retains his eligibility at 2B. So why is he falling this far since that alone should boost his value? Call it the 'I've lost my luster as a prospect' syndrome. Burke has been in and out of the lineup the past two years, both seasons resulted in less than 375 ABs, and as a result his overall numbers aren't that strong. However, he has managed to steal 11 bases in each season, and seems a good bet to swipe 20 bags this year. Add to that the fact the he will hit at the top of the Astros lineup in front of Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee and Burke is falling far too far. Heck, I like Wily Mo Pena as much as the next guy, but there is no way I'm drafting him at #233 instead of Burke when he doesn't have a starting spot and would be lucky to steal 5 bases this year. It just isn't happening.

Michael Cuddyer, OF, MIN (.284-24-4109-102-6)

ADP: 116^th overall

How many of you realize that Cuddyer was one of only nine OFs who had 100 RBI and 100 Runs last year? Are those crickets I hear? Cuddyer hits in the middle of a Twins lineup with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, so there should be plenty of chances for Michael to score and knock in a bushel of runs once again. Obviously what is holding back Cuddyer is the fact that the previous two seasons in Minnesota he hit 24 HRs with 87 RBIs while batting .263 in 761 ABs. However, don't forget that Cuddyer was the Twins #1 pick in the 1997 draft and that he owns some big numbers from his minor league days (including 30 HRs one year in AA). All that was holding back Cuddyer was a consistent spot in the lineup and he finally has it now. He may not be a sexy name, or one that you really even know that well, but his numbers were better than Magglio Ordonez last year, and Mags is going with the 104^th pick according to ADP.

Conor Jackson, 1B, ARI (.291-15-79-75-1)

ADP: 226^th overall

Jackson had a solid rookie season, just like all the pundits predicted, so why is he falling so far in drafts? The answer is his lack of power as 15 HRs is certainly not something most of us would be comfortable with as our starting 1B in a none-points league (though he would make an excellent CI). However, there is much to like here. One, Jackson struck out just 73 times last year while drawing 54 BBs for a solid 0.74 BB/K ratio. Two, Jackson hit almost exactly the same of lefties (.296 AVG, .810 OPS) as he did righties (.288/.808) in 2006. Three, Jackson improved his average (.312) and OPS (.850) in the second half of the season. So why is he being drafted behind Nick Johnson (222) even though Johnson is likely out until at least June? You got me.

Jose Lopez, 2B, SEA (.282-10-79-78-5)

ADP: 272^nd overall

Jose Lopez is not a top option at 2B, that much is clear. However, he fits in very well at the bottom half of the second tier of second sackers which makes the fact that he is slipping to almost 275^th overall slightly surprising. Is it because people are under the false assumption that he will lose playing time to Jose Vidro (who will DH)? Don't people recognize that he hit .313 in his last 99 ABs last year, or the fact that he is just 23-years-old? What about the fact that he had more Runs and RBIs than Rickie Weeks (73/34), Josh Barfield (72/58) and Brandon Phillips (65/75)? Something is slightly amiss here, so if you get stuck needing a 2B late in your draft, look toward Seattle.

Shane Victorino, OF, PHI (.287-6-46-70-4)

ADP: 291^st overall

I recently participate in the FSTA 12-Team mixed league in Las Vegas, and with the last pick in the draft, #276, Victorino was taken. Now I thought that was way too late, but apparently that is still before he is going picked in most leagues, at least according to this ADP data. Victorino will bat second in the Phillies lineup behind Jimmy Rollins and in front of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Is there a better spot in all of baseball to hit? Victorino was solid last year in his final 57 games hitting .307 over that stretch, and though he stole only 4 bases last year, Victorino did steal over 40 bases twice while in the minors. Throw in the fact that the Phils brought in Davey Lopes to help Victorino with his stolen base skills, and he makes a much better target than many of the OFs being taken before him.

So there it is. Average Draft Position is a great tool that can help you to take the pulse of the baseball community, so don't forget to get your hands on some ADP info and give it a looksie before you enter your draft this year and in the future.