2007 Washington Nationals Preview






2007 Team Finish: 71 - 91 - Last place in the NL East

General Manager Jim Bowden and team president, Stan Kasten, wisely stayed out of this winter’s lucrative spending spree.  They offered free agent OF Alfonso Soriano a low-ball, 5 year-$75 Million contract to stay with the club, but he opted out to sign an 8 year deal with the Chicago Cubs.  Clearly the goal in the offseason was to clear payroll, and plug roster holes with discounted stop-gap players like Dmitri Young and Ronnie Belliard. Kasten and Bowden were brought here by the new club owners to build the foundation for a franchise that can be successful in years to come.  Remember, Kasten was one of the most influential front office executives, and the man who hired John Schuerholz in Atlanta. Together they turned the Braves into a consistently winnng franchise.  The only noticeable change in Washington this year will be the addition of new manager Manny Acta, the former 3B coach for the NY Mets. He comes with the hope of keeping his job long enough to see this team turn into a group of steadfast winners.

Key Additions: 2B Ronnie Belliard, 3B Tony Batista, OF Dmitri Young, OF Chris Snelling, RH Tim Redding, LH Ray King, RH Jerome Williams.

Key Losses: C/1B Robert Fick, 2B Jose Vidro, OF Marlon Byrd, OF Alfonso Soriano, OF Jose Guillen, LH Joey Eischen, RH Felix Rodriguez, RH Brian Lawrence, LH Zach Day, RH Pedro Astacio, RH Ramon Ortiz.

New ownership that actually wants to win, rather than settle for paddin the pockets of the rest of the league’s owners, can you believe that? No one really capable of making an immediate impact was added over the off-season, so this will be yet another transition year for the franchise. This winter Kasten and Bowden started a massive house-cleaning project that was long overdue.  Most of their additions came in the form of low cost minor league contracts, and it’s clear that they want to build their franchise up through the minor league system (which is pretty bare, and that’s being optimistic).  They absolutely have their work cut out for them, but they’ve got a good young player to build around in Ryan Zimmerman. 


In the Field

Projected Lineup

1.    Felipe Lopez, 2B
2.    Cristian Guzman, SS
3.    Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
4.    Austin Kearns, RF
5.    Ryan Church, LF
6.    Dmitri Young, 1B
7.    Brian Schneider, C
8.    Nook  Logan, CF

Catcher

Brian Schneider was banged up a lot last year. He seemingly strained every muscle in his body, including a strained lower back, a strained big toe, a strained groin muscle, a strained left hamstring, and a whole lot of other minor ailments that eventually landed him on the 15-Day DL.  The only real noticeable statistical change in 2006 was his big drop in first pitch swing percentage, at 19%,  which was down from an average of 25% over the previous three years.  Perhaps he was trying to be more selective at the plate?  He was just dreadful all-around, it’s not even that he was unlucky with that .256 BA either, as his BaBIP was his highest ever.  He’s not more than a second catcher in NL only leagues.

First Base

Since Nick Johnson will be out until July at the earliest with a broken leg, let’s focus on the replacement who’ll get the bulk of his AB, Dmitri Young.  “Da Meat Hook”, is beyond relevant as an everyday player, and while he does present some power upside, there’s no reason to expect him to help your team out with any consistency. Young has registered more than 500 ABs just once in four seasons. He’s a liability in the field, but the Nats need the potential in his bat more than they need Travis Lee’s glove. At least he’s got an awesome nickname.

Second Base

As Felipe Lopez enters this season, he will play 2B for the first time after manning shortstop for most of his professional career.  He wasn’t going to be a great option as a shortstop, which is turning out to be fairly deep for ’07. But he is a solid option as a second baseman, which is conversely a very thin pool in the NL this year.  The move from Cincinnati to Washington primarily effected his power numbers. He put up a mere 17 XBH in 320 PA after the trade, as opposed to 26 XBH in 394 PA while in Cincy.  He’s still a lock for at least 20 SB, and a .350 OBA, but don’t expect another 23 HR season.  In NL only leagues however, the speed will be more than enough to justify his roster spot. For those of you believers in the magical peak year, he will also be 27 years old this season.

Third Base

Ryan Zimmerman is the youngest of the next generation of dominant third sackers to emerge in the NL East, and he could be right up there with David Wright and Miguel Cabrera sooner than later.  With nobody hitting around him in 2006, he still managed to muster up 110 RBIs and 70 XBH in 682 PA, so the consistent production is there.  The only knock against him is that struck out 120 times last year, but there’s definitely time for that to improve since he’s only 22 years old. Line up his 2006 stats with any other guy at the hot corner, and you’ll find that he compares favorably with the best of them.  Don’t be in a rush to grab the bigger names early in the draft.  Zimmerman will provide comparable production at a much better price.

Shortstop

Remember when we all finally realized that Christian Guzman was just plain bad?  In Washington he’s been even worse than that.  In his first year with the Nats, he had a .574 OPS which makes Rey Ordonez look like David Ortiz.  He helped the team out in ’06 by missing all of last season to shoulder surgery.  The team just purchased the contract of Ronnie Belliard from Triple-A Columbus, and you’d have to think that moving Lopez back to short and starting Belliard at second would make more sense.

Out In The Grass

Left Field

Ryan Church had an .891 OPS last season and his 18% HR/F ratio ranked number one on the team. Considering the park he plays in, that’s a pretty solid number.  Unfortunately, his .360 and .349 BaBIP’s from the previous two seasons are just too good to maintain. That’s especially scary when you consider that he only hit .287 with that kind of luck.  Chris Snelling, formerly a top Mariners prospect whose biggest problem has been his inability to stay healthy has been playing strong all spring and could take over if Church regresses.

Center Field

Nook Logan’s .300 BA for the Nationals last season was inflated by a ridiculous .377 BaBIP. If he’s going produce with any consistency and stay in the lineup, he’ll have to hit the ball on the ground and steal bases.  He’s a very poor man’s Juan Pierre, who’s never going to hit for any sort of power. His value is entirely tied to his legs, so he’ll have to play solid defense and find a way to get on base more than 33% of the time. You can’t steal bases from the dugout.

Right Field

Austin Kearns suffered a big drop in his HR/F ratio after the trade brought him to the Nationals midseason, but his K/BB ration increased from 35/85 prior to the trade to 41/50 after the deal.  He’ll still post .800+ OPS’, and his walk rates could increase due a lack of protection in the lineup.  This isn’t Cincinnati where names like Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. wait in the on deck circle. Nobody is going to pitch to Kearns if they don’t have to.