Jacoby Ellsbury is making the Red Sox glad the Johan talk was just that - talk.

The biggest deal of the off-season was the Twins’ trade of two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana. The Mets were the lucky winners of the Santana sweepstakes, convincing Minnesota to take a package of prospects that included Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra. Only Gomez figured to be on the Mets opening-day roster. It was a no-brainer for the Mets.

Santana was the top pitcher in fantasy drafts and his stats figured to get a bump moving to the National League. Indeed Santana has pitched well for the Mets. New York has won five of the seven games he has started, though Santana himself got the decision in only three of those wins. Overall Santana is 3-2 with a 2.91 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and 47 Ks in 46.1 innings. Verdict: a great deal for the Mets

For Minnesota, not so much. Gomez is the only one of four acquired that is on their big-league roster. The Twins out-smarted themselves by using the Yankees and the Red Sox to bid against themselves. Minnesota’s talks with the Yankees fell through when they asked for Ian Kennedy in addition to the New York’s offer of Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera. Verdict: a bad decision by the Yankees not to pull the trigger.

The Red Sox offer for Santana is the one that Minnesota should have accepted. The Twins sought two of these three from Boston: Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Boston was willing to trade one, even Ellsbury, but not two. They were offering packages that either included Ellsbury or Lester, plus Coco Crisp and lesser prospects like Jed Lowrie. Verdict: smart decision by Boston to bail out. All these players are now on the Red Sox major league roster and contributing.

The Texas Rangers were briefly in the Santana race according to SI.com's Jon Heyman. It’s likely that Edinson Volquez would have been the centerpiece of a deal. Volquez would eventually be traded to Cincinnati for Josh Hamilton.

It’s now one month into the baseball season and three months after trade. Looking back, the Twins would like a do-over as would the Yankees. However, the Mets and the Red Sox are quite happy with how things turned out. The fantasy value of the players offered confirms this analysis: A lot of Red Sox performing better and a lot of Twins and Yankees are performing worse.

For Better

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, Outfield, Red Sox: Ellsbury, 24, is a premier leadoff hitter for Boston. He is on a pace to steal 60 and score 135 runs. Ellsbury’s OBP is an excellent .396 and his OPS is .814. The only downside to this rising star is he occasionally sits against lefties. Factor that in when you set your lineups.

2. Clay Buchholz, Starting Pitcher, Red Sox: While technically a rookie in 2008, Buchholz threw a no-hitter last season for Boston. He has had one very bad start, against the Yankees, where he gave up seven runs. In every other start he has given up three or less. If you throw out the Yankees game, his ERA drops from 3.71 to 3.26. Eventually Buchholz will be one of the top strikeout pitchers in the AL – He has 33 Ks in 34 innings. Buchholz fans are hoping for 15 wins, though I think 12 or 13 is more realistic. Young pitchers tend to run out of gas late in the season. The 23-year old Buchholz pitched 193 innings last season, winning a total of 14 between Double-A Portland, Triple-A Pawtucket, and the Red Sox.

3. Edinson Volquez, Starting Pitcher, Reds: Volquez has given up one earned or less in each of his six starts. If you project out his stats to a full season, he would be 20-5 with a 1.27 ERA and 206 strikeouts. That’s Bob Gibson territory. Volquez is the best player almost traded for Santana last winter. Good thing for the Reds since they dealt a very talented Josh Hamilton to acquire him. Volquez may turn out to be the fantasy free agent pickup of 2008. Nobody drafted him, but now he is owned in 100% of leagues. Volquez pitched 178.2 innings last year, between the minors and the Reds.

4. Melky Cabrera, Outfield, Yankees: Cabrera is the only Yankee offered to the Twins who is doing well in 2008. Cabrera is exceeding expectations, especially in the homerun department. Cabrera has six home runs, which is only two less than he had all last season. That’s a 31 home run pace.

5. Carlos Gomez, Outfield, Twins: The 22-year-old Gomez is one of the fastest men in baseball. Gomez leads the AL in steals with 13. That’s good because he doesn’t help you much in any of the other Roto categories except runs scored. He walks too little and has no power. His OPS is only .671. But if you need steals, Gomez is one of the best. He figures to be up there with Jose Reyes for the MLB lead when the season is done.

For Worse

1. Phil Hughes, Starting Pitcher, Yankees: The jewel of the Yankee farm system had a disastrous start to his 2008. Hughes is 0-4, with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP. Opposing batters were hammering him to the tune of a .362 average. Hughes, 21, battled vision problems before a fractured rib mercifully landed him on the 15-day DL. I wouldn’t expect to see him in the Bronx until August. Oddly, nearly 20% of fantasy owners are still holding a roster spot for him. Did the pressure of New York get to him? Did the pressure of having to justify the non-trade get to him? Both could be true. Once he is healthy, the Yankees will most likely put him on their Triple-A roster so he can build some confidence. It’s not his eyes or his ribs that worries them – it’s what’s between his ears. 2008 is a lost season for Hughes. Dump him.

2. Ian Kennedy, Starting Pitcher, Yankees: Hughes and Kennedy will one day anchor the Yankees rotation. The question is, what year? Pencil in 2010. Kennedy started five games, going 0-2 with an 8.37 ERA and a 2.03 WHIP. That’s slightly better than what Hughes did, but still awful. Kennedy was just optioned to Triple-A Scranton. No need to keep him or Hughes on your radar.

3. Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Starting Pitchers, Twins: Humber and Mulvey are teammates at Triple-A Rochester. Mulvey has been the better of the two, going 2-3 with a 3.82 ERA. Humber is only 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA. It’s possible that one of them could get called up at some point to make a spot start, but they would need to dominate to stay on the big league roster. Guerra is in A-ball, and a couple of years away. None of the former Mets pitching prospects have any value in 2008.

4. Jon Lester, Starting Pitcher, Red Sox: Lester is the poor-man’s Buchholz. People who missed out on Buchholz in their fantasy draft settled for Lester. While Buchholz is owned 100%, Lester is only owned in about ¼ of fantasy leagues. Lester’s stats are weaker than Buchholz across the board, but particularly in strikeouts. Lester only strikes out 5.3 per nine innings. The 24-year-old Lester never pitched more than 149 innings in a professional season. It’s too much to ask for him to soak up 200 innings at this stage. If you really like Lester, pick him up early and deal him in early August when he’s gassed.

5. Coco Crisp, Outfield, Red Sox: Boston wanted to include Crisp in the Santana package to clear room for Ellsbury. They still play Crisp enough to showcase him for a potential mid-season deal. The average is good, .308, but the rest of his numbers are subpar. Crisp has too little power, speed or OPS to be useful in anything but the deep AL-only leagues. He is available in about 93% of leagues. Unless he’s traded, Crisp won’t play enough to use in any weekly H2H leagues.

6. Jed Lowrie, Second Base/Shortstop, Red Sox: Lowrie was a deal-sweetener in the Santana trade talks. Nobody expected to see him at Fenway so early. Lowrie was called up from Triple-A Pawtucket in mid-April when third baseman Mike Lowell went on the disabled list. Lowrie is getting some playing time to spell Dustin Pedroia and is hitting a respectable .286. Lowrie has offers little in steals or run production. You can do better.