Los Angeles' closer of the future is doing quite well in the present.
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The past week has been a very quiet one on the closer front. This week we will look deeper at the true gems of the bullpen, the highly volatile and (if you’re lucky) highly profitable, middle relievers. Picking the right pitchers for your fantasy squad is an inexact science but the net effect of selecting the correct relievers is similar to adding a top-tier starter to your rotation. The non-closing relievers who consistently produce are rare indeed and mostly have a shelf life of two to three years maximum. A strategy that incorporates these pitchers is indeed not for the faint of heart but one that should be explored. Here is a deeper look at the elite middle relievers so far this season and a few who may yet emerge from the shadows and become fantasy assets:
Carlos Marmol – Coming off a 96-strikeout season in relief, Marmol has emerged as the gold standard of middle relievers. Coming into Friday’s action, he was one strikeout away from trailing only Carlos Zambrano in the strikeout category for all Cubs pitchers, either starters or relievers. The ancillary benefit of Marmol, above and beyond his dominant per inning rates, is his proclivity to be pitched more than one inning per outing. In nearly one-third of his appearances thus far Marmol has pitched more than a single inning thus increasing his benefit to those mindful of innings minimums and adding to your season tally. An interesting caveat for anyone interested in Marmol is that there are those who speculate that should Kerry Wood lose the closer’s role via injury or non-performance that it would not be Marmol as the immediate replacement, as he may have more value as a multi-inning relief ace to the Cubs.
Santiago Casilla – The former Jairo Garcia has been the best Oakland reliever to start the season, Huston Street included. Striking out more than a batter per inning and displaying pinpoint control, Casilla has improved off of his uneven 2007 campaign. There is little doubt that Casilla would inherit the closer’s role in Oakland should Street become injured or is dealt (a scenario which is increasingly unlikely as Oakland continues to play well). Last season’s second-half swoon leads one to be a bit skeptical that this level of success can be sustained, but Casilla has clearly been second only to Marmol in middle reliever performance so far this season.
Hideki Okajima – The Japanese import has begun his sophomore season like he began his rookie season, which is to say that he has been nearly flawless. There were those who opined that Okajima’s rough August and September (6.23 ERA and 1.44 WHIP) were harbingers of s rocky second tour through the league. So far this season, that has clearly not been the case as Okajima has allowed a single earned run in his first 15 innings, while striking out 14 batters. Interestingly enough, Okajima has been charged with three blown saves this season (once allowing an earned run and twice allowing inherited runners to score) so his record is not quite flawless. As the primary setup man to baseball’s best closer, Okajima will vulture the occasional save and carry significant value in a middle reliever strategy
Jonathan Broxton – The enormous fireballer for the Dodgers is old news at this point to those who value the middlemen. He has shown consistent ability to amass high strikeout totals and keep all other peripheral statistics in line with elite performance. The Dodgers have gone and will continue to go to Takashi Saito for the saves but it is Broxton who remains the vital piece of the Dodgers bullpen. It really is a shame in some respects because on most every team in baseball Broxton would represent an upgrade at the closer spot and would be sitting here today with 75-85 saves for his career instead of 5 which would mean a great deal to fantasy owners and to Broxton’s agent when he goes to arbitration for the first time following this season.
Joba Chamberlain – While his ERA may not look as pretty as the top four does (thanks to his ugly blown save this past Tuesday) there is little doubt that he is held in high regard by fantasy owners and considered to be among the elite middle relievers. For his young career Chamberlain still sports 50 strikeouts in less than 40 innings, a career ERA of less than 1.50 and an opponent’s batting average against of .164. Chamberlain does offer a few intriguing scenarios in which his value would jump. First and foremost is the much talked about transition to the rotation (which in the Yankees case) may be an absolute necessity. Secondly, his value would skyrocket should anything happen to Mariano Rivera, who at an advanced age has to be considered at least an outside possibility as an injury risk. Even if Chamberlain remains in his current role, he is a much-coveted middle reliever that should continue to impact.
A few middle relievers who may be unowned in your league who have had strong starts to their season:
Joey Devine, Oakland – Former Braves first rounder has started strong with a strikeout per inning pitched and is turning into solid piece of surprising A’s staff.
Ramon Ramirez, Kansas City – Had similar hot start to his 2006 season for the Rockies but faded badly down the stretch. Possesses tools to emerge as attractive middle reliever.
Taylor Buchholz, Colorado – Former top prospect and brother of Clay, Buchholz has emerged as top righty setup man for closer Brian Fuentes and has vaulted past Manny Corpas as the likely closer if something should happen to the incumbent.
Finally two quick closer notes:
It seems that Salomon Torres has emerged as the preferred speculative pickup for those vultures that are circling the Eric Gagne wagon. While Torres is a likely candidate, Guillermo Mota and (to a lesser extent) David Riske still loom in the pen and manager Ned Yost has repeatedly given the dreaded “vote of confidence” to Gagne. It still seems likely that Gagne will lose his grip on this job at some point but there is no way to narrow who exactly would succeed him.
I know he is not the sexy pick and I know he has some spectacular blown saves but there is no question that good ol’ Joe Borowski will reclaim the closer’s role for the Indians or so his manager Eric Wedge repeatedly insists. Borowski has rejoined the team and already had his first bullpen session so it stands to reason that he will be back in a few weeks, presumably following a short minor league rehab stint. Rafael Betancourt is not to be dropped but stands to lose a substantial portion of his value in short order.
Tier One: The Elite Closers
Jonathan Papelbon – Boston Red Sox
Mariano Rivera – New York Yankees
Billy Wagner – New York Mets
Joe Nathan – Minnesota Twins
J.J. Putz – Seattle Mariners
Francisco Rodriguez – LA Angels of Anaheim
Tier Two: Your Average Joes
Joakim Soria – Kansas City Royals
Brad Lidge – Philadelphia Phillies
Takashi Saito – LA Dodgers
Bobby Jenks – Chicago White Sox
Brandon Lyon – Arizona Diamondbacks
Francisco Cordero – Cincinnati Reds
George Sherrill – Baltimore Orioles
Matt Capps – Pittsburgh Pirates
Huston Street – Oakland Athletics
B.J. Ryan – Toronto Blue Jays
Troy Percival – Tampa Bay Rays
Jason Isringhausen – St. Louis Cardinals
Tier Three: Looking Over Their Shoulders
Kerry Wood – Chicago Cubs
Brian Fuentes – Colorado Rockies
Brian Wilson – San Francisco Giants
Trevor Hoffman – San Diego Padres
C.J. Wilson – Texas Rangers
Jose Valverde – Houston Astros
Todd Jones – Detroit Tigers
Kevin Gregg – Florida Marlins
Eric Gagne – Milwaukee Brewers
Jon Rauch – Washington Nationals
Rafael Betancourt – Cleveland Indians
Manny Acosta – Atlanta Braves
Disabled
Rafael Soriano/John Smoltz – Atlanta Braves
Top 5 Middle Relievers
Carlos Marmol – Chicago Cubs
Santiago Casilla – Oakland Athletics
Joba Chamberlain – NY Yankees
Hideki Okajima – Boston Red Sox
Jonathan Broxton – LA Dodgers