It ain't looking good for Manny...

Every spring you have to make trade-offs when assembling your fantasy roster. In your draft you prioritize players based on (1) positional scarcity, (2) impact and (3) consistency. For example, a run-producing catcher or second basemen is rarer than a run-producing outfielder.

Point production being equal, hitters are drafted higher than pitchers. In a Roto league, a hitter can contribute to all offensive categories. A pitcher’s impact is more limited, however. A starting pitcher can only help you in wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. A reliever has even less impact, with only a marginal influence on those categories. The relievers on your roster usually help in only a single category: saves. If you are in a Roto league that counts holds, it’s still only one category per reliever.

Another big factor to weigh is consistency. Hitters tend to be more consistent in their production, year in and year out. Starting pitchers tend to be more consistent than relievers. Closers are the most volatile in terms of production and holding onto their jobs.

It’s a good strategy to wait on drafting closers and give other positions higher priorities. Closers may be in limited supply, but their impact is somewhat muted and their inconsistency poses a high risk. I have always cautioned against drafting closers early. Settle for a second or third choice at closer and have a plan B for potential closers.

Last year several free agent pickups became big-league closers. So, don’t fret if you are behind in saves at this point in the season. Last year you could have had Jose Valverde (47 saves), Kevin Gregg (32), Jeremy Accardo (30) and Manny Corpas (19) off the free agent wire.

So you took my advice, and you drafted mid-tier closers and had a plan B ready. Your plan B of potential closers might have included Rafael Betancourt,

Derrick Turnbow and Peter Moylan. Betancourt got a shot at closing with Joe Borowski on the disabled list, but he has been awful. Turnbow was so bad, (15.63 ERA, 13 BB in 6.1 innings) that he got sent down to the minors. Moylan briefly closed before getting shut down for season ending elbow surgery.

So that didn’t work out. It’s time for Plan C. Let’s see which free agents have potential (for better) and which ones you should pass on (for worse).

For Better

1. Salomon Torres, RP, Brewers: Éric Gagné was a high risk / high reward proposition. Which pitcher would show up in Milwaukee? The guy who saved 16 games for the Rangers, with a 2.16 ERA and who held batters to a .192 average? Or the battered setup man, booed out of Boston with a 6.62 ERA and getting hit at a .325 clip? Sorry Brewers, you got the Boston bust version. If you had Gagné in a league that also used setup men, Turnbow was a logical handcuff. Too bad Turnbow flamed out before he got a chance to replace Gagné. The Brewers’ Plan C is Torres. He figures to get most of the save chances until Gagné proves he’s ready to close again. Gagné pitched poorly in his first chance after his demotion and his experience last year in Boston suggests that he is not well suited to that role either. Gagné was also listed in the Mitchell Report, so who knows if that’s another reason for his decline. As long as Torres pitches reasonably well, he should keep the job for a while. Torres’ numbers are decent (3.04 ERA, 19 Ks in 23.2 innings). The best news is that he is still available in most leagues. Grab Torres while you can.
2. Joaquin Benoit, RP, Rangers: Benoit started the season slowly, but has been pitching much better of late. The first two weeks of May he has been the effective eighth inning pitcher that we saw last season. C.J. Wilson is the Rangers’ closer, but he has given up multiple runs in four of 18 appearances. Benoit will see some save opportunities if Wilson continues his inconsistent play. Benoit is available in just about every fantasy league.
3. Jon Rauch, RP, Nationals: Rauch was elevated to the closer’s job due to the injury to Chad Cordero. Anyone could have had this undrafted free agent, but now Rauch is owned in all leagues. Cordero is on the disabled list with a shoulder injury that should sideline him until midseason. That will give Rauch time to establish himself in the role. Rauch was very effective as a setup man last season and has been solid this season. He has converted seven of nine save opportunities and is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA and a terrific 1.04 WHIP. Don’t be surprised if Rauch holds the job even after Cordero comes back.
4. Heath Bell, RP, Padres: As a setup man for Trevor Hoffman, Bell is owned in every league that uses middle relievers, but in most other leagues Bell is available (75%). What chance does Bell have to supplant Hoffman? Well, though he’s been durable for the most part, Hoffman is 40 — He could break down. Hoffman has also been a little shaky, going back to the end of last season. If you throw out his April 2nd outing, however, Hoffman’s ERA goes from 5.91 to 2.70, which is slightly below his career mark. The Padres are mired in last place and it would make sense to move Hoffman to a contender if things don’t improve by midseason. Hoffman is a 10-and-5 man, meaning he would have to agree to a trade. A chance to win and a chance to redeem his postseason legacy… That’s the ticket! There are several scenarios where Bell could get a chance to close: injury, ineffectiveness, or trade. It’s a bit of a reach, but Bell has the talent to succeed.

For Worse

1. Manny Acosta, RP, Braves: Acosta is the Braves’ Plan C at closer. They began the season with Rafael Soriano at closer. They went to Moylan when Soriano went on the DL, and now that Moylan and John Smoltz are on the DL Acosta is closer by default. Acosta, now owned in about 80% of leagues, will be a quick drop once Smoltz returns. Smoltz becomes the Atlanta closer again, where he thrived, saving 144 games from 2002-2004.
2. Ryan Franklin, RP, Cardinals: Franklin is a hot pick-up since manager Tony La Russa took the closer’s job away from Jason Isringhausen. His percent owned shot up to above 90%. For fantasy leagues that use middle relievers, Franklin (12 holds) is very valuable. For leagues that only count saves, Franklin is only a band-aid until Isringhausen works out his mechanical problems.
3. Manuel Corpas, SP, Rockies: Last year Corpas took over the closer job in Colorado when Brian Fuentes went on the disabled list in July. Corpas was so good, that he never gave the job up. Last year he saved 19 out of 22 save opportunities. This season he saved only four of eight before losing his job to Fuentes. Fuentes is 4-for-4 in save chances since taking over. He also has a better resume than Corpas. Corpas’ 2007 is looking a little fluky. You can drop Corpas at this point. His ownership is down below 20% now and falling.