It is a nice story, but John is not buying Jon Lester.

2008 is on its way to becoming the year of the pitcher. There is a precipitous decline in scoring, the likes of which we have not seen in years. Baseball’s cumulative ERA is at 4.16, a significant drop from last season’s 4.46. Baseball had been averaging about 4½ runs per team per game for some time. The difference in the American League is more evident. The American League ERA was 4.51 in 2007; this season it is 4.08. This means American League teams are scoring nearly half a run less per game. That is significant.

What changed since last season? The Mitchell Report is the most likely factor. The investigation named dozens of players for allegedly using performance-enhancing drugs. No doubt, many unnamed players modified their behavior as well.

The net effect is a reduction in offense. Averages are down, from .268 in 2007 to .259 this season. Homeruns are down too. In 2007, the ball left the yard every 35 at bats; this year it is every 40. It would seem that the more-level playing field favors the pitcher.

Why is the reduction more pronounced in the American League? The junior circuit had higher scoring and an extra hitter in the lineup, so they had more room to fall. The A.L. also has a number of young hurlers that can take advantage of the more favorable conditions. The Cleveland Indians might have the best collection of young arms, led by last year’s Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia. Even though their ace got off to a terrible start, the rest of the Cleveland rotation picked Sabathia up and they lead the majors with a 3.36 team ERA. Now with Sabathia back on track, the Tribe recently put together a scoreless innings streak. It finally ended at 44 1/3 innings and was broken by – what else – an unearned run. That was not a team record, but it was their longest such streak since 1948 when Bob Lemon and Satchel Paige were in their rotation.

The Indians, Athletics, and White Sox are blessed with a bumper crop of young (20-something) arms. Some are still available as free agents in your league. Let’s examine which young A.L. pitchers have upside (for better) and which may have peaked (for worse).

For Better

1. Cliff Lee, Starting Pitcher, Cleveland Indians: Lee is the free agent pickup of the season. Not only is he the best pitcher in the American League, Lee is the American League’s best player. He has been posting numbers worthy of 1968. He leads the league with a ludicrous 1.37 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP. Lee has given up no more than one run in six of his eight starts. In 2005 and 2006, Lee was a serviceable pitcher, winning 32 games. Last year his control worsened and he found himself back in the minors. However, this season Lee has only five walks in 59 innings. That is Greg Maddox territory. Pitching coaches say that the most important pitch is strike one. It is a lesson that Lee finally learned at age 29.

2. Aaron Laffey, Starting Pitcher, Cleveland Indians: You missed out on Lee, but Laffey may be the next best thing. His ERA (1.35) is actually lower than Lee’s, though Laffey does not have enough innings to qualify for the league leaders. Laffey’s WHIP (0.86) is in the same otherworldly realm as Lee’s. Laffey, 23, is available in most leagues, but the time to grab him is fleeting. Laffey moved into the rotation when Jake Westbrook went on the disabled list, but it is going to be hard to displace him if he keeps performing. Laffey has surrendered zero earned runs in his last three starts.

3. John Danks, Starting Pitcher, Chicago White Sox: The 23-year old lefty is 3-3 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. In Danks’ last seven starts, he is 3-2 with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Danks is still available in a few leagues, so you had better move fast.

4. Gavin Floyd, Starting Pitcher, Chicago White Sox: Floyd, 25, has numbers very similar to Danks’ numbers. Floyd’s record (4-2), ERA (2.92) and WHIP (1.14) are all slightly better. Floyd is available in nearly half of fantasy leagues and provides good value, though Danks is still preferable. Danks is the hotter pitcher and he strikes out more.

5. Dana Eveland, Starting Pitcher, Oakland Athletics: Eveland, 24, has pitched better than his 3-3 record. He could have another three wins with improved run support. Eveland is eleventh in the A.L. with a 3.23 ERA and he is especially tough when he pitches at Oakland. Eveland is available in about two-thirds of fantasy leagues.

For Worse

1. Joe Saunders, Starting Pitcher, Los Angeles Angels: The 26-year-old Saunders is the A.L. co-leader in wins with seven. He is fifth in ERA (2.48) and sixth in WHIP (1.10). Saunders filled the void left by injuries to the more heralded John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. Lackey just returned to action, but Escobar is working his way back, hopefully by July. Saunders has been a pleasant surprise to any fantasy owner that plucked him off the wire, but he is no (John) Lackey. The soft-tossing Saunders strikes out less than four batters per nine innings. That will hurt you in fantasy play. All that contact is bound to drive his WHIP and ERA up as well. Saunders is due for a market correction.

2. Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox: Do not get too crazy over Lester’s no-hitter. It is a nice story, but the free-swinging Royals were made to order for Lester. Lester, 24, is available in about half of fantasy leagues, and will be a popular pickup the next few days. I will stick with my earlier analysis of Lester — He strikes out too few and is unlikely to maintain his stamina deep into the season. The no-hitter makes Lester a good sell-high opportunity.

3. Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians: The 24-year old hurler won 19 last season for the Tribe and this year is 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA. So, what is the problem? Carmona has a high WHIP (1.50) and low strikeouts (3.5 per nine innings). That will catch up with him and bring his ERA into alignment with the rest of his statistics. Consider trading him before this happens.

4. Zack Greinke, SP, Royals: Greinke, 24, is 5-1 and is third in the A.L. in ERA (2.18) and tenth in WHIP (1.16). He compiled great stats in April, when he had a 1.25 ERA. Greinke cooled down in May and figures to continue his descent back to earth.

5. Andy Sonnanstine, SP, Rays: Sonnanstine is a surprising 6-1 for the upstart Rays. The 25-year-old has won five decisions in a row and is available in most leagues. Except for his won-loss record, Sonnanstine’s statistics are very similar to those he posted last season when he went 6-10. He gives up home runs (six already) and his strikeouts are average (less than five per nine innings). Sonnanstine has little potential in fantasy.