This whole exercise was just another way to say Éric Gagné sucks.

This space will typically deal with and evaluate reliever performance as it pertains to per inning performance (H, HR, K, BB per nine) and the typical measurable fantasy rate categories (ERA/WHIP/K to BB). What will not be tracked and measured as strictly will be the raw saves leaders. As of this writing, there are two closers in the top five of total saves converted (George Sherrill and Brian Wilson) that I don’t believe would show up anywhere in a consensus top ten closer list (and certainly not make the top list in this column). The major reason is their per-inning rates and by looking deeper at those underlying rates it is easy to identify the fraudulent from the legitimate.

The sample size we have now is not necessarily large but essentially representative of a time slightly following the one-quarter mark of the season. We identify the outliers and/or interesting findings for each per-inning indicator. We will limit this study to the players defined currently as a team’s “closer”, so we will sadly exclude all middle relievers.

Strikeouts Per Nine Innings

The most important indicator for fantasy clearly is the strikeout since it is counted any numbers of ways depending on your league. A look atop the K per 9 leaders brings a familiar name: last year’s top closer for fantasy J.J. Putz (we will see later that all is not well for the former Michigan Wolverine as far as per inning rates go). Many of the typical names populate the top of the list such as Jose Valverde, Jonathan Papelbon and Brad Lidge. The most obvious name missing from the K/9 leaders is Francisco Rodriguez. A year after striking out an elite 12 batters per nine innings, K-Rod (coincidentally the impetus for this column and the major leagues saves leader) has struck out barely seven batters per nine. Small sample size fluke? Harbinger of impending doom? I say a bit of both. Rodriguez is positioned as the top free-agent reliever and likely will receive a contract well in excess of last year’s top free agent closer Francisco Cordero so there is plenty of financial incentive for K-Rod to post an elite season. While there were some injury concerns earlier this season with K-Rod he appears to be in good health. It is likely that Rodriguez will rebound but there is some real concern that his walk year will fall short of statistical expectations.

The one high-profile closer that does appear to be exhibiting a trend towards contact over strikeout is Bobby Jenks. In his first full season as the White Sox closer in 2006, his K/9 rate was a superb 10.33. Last season he regressed to 7.75 and stands at 5.75 this season. There is no complaining about his ERA and WHIP (1.77 and 0.98) thus far but needless to say I am not breaking any new ground when I say that a closer for a full season with a K/9 under six is not finishing with an ERA and WHIP that low. It would be the statistical anomaly of all statistical anomalies.

Walks Per Nine Innings

Following his return from his rib injury, J.J. Putz’s performance has been volatile by his standards. After walking exactly 13 batters a season in 2006 and 2007, it is quite a bit concerning that Putz’s 2008 total is already at 10. As a result of his stint on the disabled list, Putz’s sample is a bit smaller than most other closers but there has to be concern nonetheless. Given that control has been Putz’s strong suit ever since being converted to relief, it is highly likely that these control issues are a lingering result of his DL stint and that he will regress to his mean performance and drop his walk rate significantly.

On the other end of the spectrum are the control artists and a surprising name near the top of the list. There are three closers with less than one walk per nine innings: Mariano Rivera (the only closer yet to allow a single walk), Jonathan Papelbon and…Brandon Lyon. Yes, the Brandon Lyon that was supposed to be out of a job after a rough first week. While Lyon has never been a poor control pitcher, he certainly has never exhibited it to this degree. It is quite likely that Brandon Lyon is at the peak of his value as we speak so he fits the profile of someone that I’m willing to deal if I can bring elite closer value in return.

Home Runs Per Nine Innings

As of yet this season with the HR/9 rates there is little as far as trends go. What is clear as always is that high a HR rate is almost always unsustainable for a closer and is most assuredly going to lead to removal from the role. The top four HR/9 rates? Joe Borowski, Éric Gagné, Rafael Betancourt and Jason Isringhausen. Enough said.

Hits Per Nine Innings

Evaluating this statistic is the trickiest of all the traditional per inning rates because it is important to evaluate a H/9 rate in tandem with a pitcher’s BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). While a long discussion pondering the correlations between underlying per inning rates and BABIP for closers would undoubtedly bore most of the readership, I will touch on the one player that meets the criteria of a typical BABIP imposter: low hit rate, low BABIP, less than stellar K and BB rates. The name that jumps out at you is George Sherrill. Sherrill’s BABIP through Friday was a very low .133 (league mean is typically anywhere from .290s to low .300s). This has led to Sherrill posting one of the lowest hit per nine inning rates of any closers. Granted, there are closers with lower hit rates and similarly low BABIPs (Joakim Soria, Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner to name three). The difference being is that those relievers have the underlying strikeout and walk rates that will be able to weather a regression to the league mean in BABIP, should it ever come. In Sherrill’s case, he has posted a strikeout rate below seven per nine and is walking over four batters per nine. Everything in the underlying numbers point to Sherrill being a more adventurous closer than his current overall rates (3.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP as of this writing) would indicate.

Tier One: The Elite Closers

Jonathan Papelbon – Boston Red Sox

Mariano Rivera – New York Yankees

Billy Wagner – New York Mets

Joakim Soria – Kansas City Royals

Francisco Rodriguez – Los Angeles Angels

Joe Nathan – Minnesota Twins

Brad Lidge – Philadelphia Phillies

J.J. Putz – Seattle Mariners

Tier Two: Your Average Joes

Jose Valverde – Houston Astros

Kerry Wood – Chicago Cubs

Takashi Saito – LA Dodgers

Francisco Cordero – Cincinnati Reds

Brandon Lyon – Arizona Diamondbacks

Bobby Jenks – Chicago White Sox

Huston Street – Oakland Athletics

B.J. Ryan – Toronto Blue Jays

George Sherrill – Baltimore Orioles

Jon Rauch – Washington Nationals

Matt Capps – Pittsburgh Pirates

Troy Percival – Tampa Bay Rays

Tier Three: Looking Over Their Shoulders

Trevor Hoffman – San Diego Padres

Brian Fuentes – Colorado Rockies

Todd Jones – Detroit Tigers

Brian Wilson – San Francisco Giants

Kevin Gregg – Florida Marlins

C.J. Wilson – Texas Rangers

Ryan Franklin – St. Louis Cardinals

Joe Borowski –Cleveland Indians

Salomon Torres – Milwaukee Brewers

Manny Acosta – Atlanta Braves

Top 5 Middle Relievers

Carlos Marmol – Chicago Cubs

Hideki Okajima – Boston Red Sox

Joey Devine – Oakland Athletics

Hong-Chih Kuo – Los Angeles Dodgers

Taylor Buchholz – Colorado Rockies