How soon will Ryan Perry be providing help in the majors?
|
This week marked a prime day on the calendar of the seamhead: the Rule 4 draft or MLB Amateur draft. While this draft does not excite the masses like it’s NFL and NBA counterparts, it is one of the most important days on the baseball calendar. It is becoming increasing relevant for fantasy owners as many premium players are spending less time in the minors and arriving on fantasy rosters quicker than ever before. The relevance to this column is growing trend of selecting college relievers early in the draft and fast-tracking them to major league pens. This trend may have reached its apex to date as no less than 4 pitchers who are considered strictly relief prospects were selected in this draft’s first round. It is an interesting exercise to examine and trace the roots of this trend enables us to see exactly how fruitful an endeavor this has been for teams.
Many point to the 2003 draft as the birth of this trend when three relievers were selected in the first round (first and supplemental first). Below is a breakdown of these relievers, team names and where they were selected overall beginning in 2003 and through the current year:
2003
Cincinnati Reds, 14th – Ryan Wagner
Washington Nationals, 20th – Chad Cordero
San Francisco Giants, 22nd – David Aardsma
Wagner was been underwhelming in his Reds career, is currently on the Nationals disabled list, and very unlikely to have a career
Aardsma has always shown the big velocity but has struggled with control at every stop. Now in the Red Sox pen, he has been solid to date this season but his WHIP (1.43) does not match his ERA (2.63) so he is likely to maintain his journeyman status
Cordero is obviously the prime haul of this group though it is likely we have seen the last of him as an effective closer.
2004
Washington Nationals, 13th – Bill Bray
Florida Marlins, 27th – Taylor Tankersley
Oakland Athletics, 40th – Huston Street
Bray, a signability pick out of William and Mary, was part of the infamous Felipe Lopez/Austin Kearns deal with the Cincinnati Reds. He was also an over-drafted player that, at best, can hope to have a career as a lefty specialist
Tankersley was a name bandied about in fantasy circles for a while in Florida with all of the uncertainty in their pen prior to Kevin Gregg’s arrival. It is likely Tankersley has a career as a lefty specialist.
Street is the gold standard of the trend with a total of 88 saves in two full seasons, one injury-shortened season and current two month-old season.
2005
Boston Red Sox, 26th – Craig Hansen
Atlanta Braves, 27th – Joey Devine
Hansen has to be considered the most disappointing pick of the trend. If he was not a Boras advisee, Hansen would have gone much higher than 26th overall and was in the top 10 mix for most of the pre-draft process. He has been up and down in his pro career thus far but has had more low points than high. He will continue to get chances but the bloom is certainly off the rose.
Devine never truly pitched well enough in Atlanta to deserve a chance in their bullpen and was shipped off to Oakland this past offseason for Mark Kotsay. Prior to his injury a few weeks back, Devine was pitching extremely well. He may have put himself firmly in the mix at the back of that bullpen.
2006
This year’s draft looms the exception somewhat as there was no one drafted in the first or supplemental round that was thought to immediately be destined for a relief role. There are a number of pitchers who have relieved in the big leagues from this draft class (Joba Chamberlain the most notable, but also Max Scherzer and Brandon Morrow) but none of these pitchers were thought to be relievers at the time and it is likely that all will end up as major league starting pitches before long.
2007
Examining this draft is difficult as a number of players have really yet to begin their career and injuries have derailed others. The most notable occurrence of this draft was the drafting of Vanderbilt closer Casey Weathers by the Rockies with the 8th overall selection. It marked the highest selection, in recent years, used on a reliever prospect.
2008
Now to the crux of the issue: this year’s draft and how it can potentially impact fantasy owners. Here is a breakdown on the four relievers taken in the first round this year and their potential impact.
Andrew Cashner, Chicago Cubs, 19th overall – As the closer for Texas Christian this season, Cashner rocketed up draft boards late as a result of the tremendous velocity shown down the stretch. As a recent convert to the pen, there remains a chance that the Cubs may try to stretch him out as a starter.
Josh Fields, Seattle Mariners, 20th overall – A second round pick as a junior last season by the Braves, Fields did not sign and went back to finish his senior season at the University of Georgia. It is a quizzical pick for a bad team with a high profile closer (J.J. Putz) and another high recent draft pick (Brandon Morrow) in their pen. Fields figures to move as quickly as any of these relievers, possibly debuting later this season.
Ryan Perry, Detroit Tigers, 21st overall – Given the situation, Perry is the most interesting name to know for fantasy. With a dreadful bullpen, desperate for reinforcements in Detroit, there is certainly a present need for a hard-thrower and Perry would fit that bill. He may not get an opportunity to close in 2008 but Perry is a name to watch going forward with the Tigers.
Daniel Schlereth, Arizona Diamondbacks, 26th overall – A second reliever drafted out of the Arizona Wildcat bullpen and son of former NFL lineman Mark, Schlereth is lefty with big velocity and has a chance to be more than just a lefty specialist. Many observers believe he has the ability to retire hitters from both sides of the plate effectively. With Brandon Lyon far from entrenched, Schlereth may have an opportunity to pitch himself into the back of the bullpen mix.
We’ll end this week with the most relevant reliever development of the week:
Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, John Smoltz will not be returning this summer to the dominant closer role he held for the Braves from 2001-2004. News of career-threatening, season-ending shoulder surgery for Smoltz effectively puts a bow on his career as it is unlikely he would be able to return at anywhere close to usual efficacy at his advanced age. Smoltz’ loss is a gain for owners of oft-injured Rafael Soriano. Since his return from the disabled list, Soriano has converted two of the three save opportunity he has been given. Those holding on to Manny Acosta do not need to keep him, as this job is clearly Soriano’s when he is healthy. The major issue for Soriano is that healthy is not a word he is usually associated with. A dark horse candidate for saves at some point this season is the rehabbing Mike Gonzalez. Currently pitching at Double-A on a rehab assignment, Gonzalez has closed in the past (quite successfully I might add) and could be back with the big club within the next few weeks. While Gonzalez isn’t an immediate threat to Soriano, he stands as the obvious fallback option in the event of injury/underperformance, should be prove healthy.
Tier One: The Elite Closers
Mariano Rivera – New York Yankees
Jonathan Papelbon – Boston Red Sox
Francisco Rodriguez – LA Angels of Anaheim
Brad Lidge – Philadelphia Phillies
Billy Wagner – New York Mets
Joe Nathan – Minnesota Twins
Kerry Wood – Chicago Cubs
Joakim Soria – Kansas City Royals
Tier Two: Your Average Joes
Jose Valverde – Houston Astros
Takashi Saito – LA Dodgers
Francisco Cordero – Cincinnati Reds
George Sherrill – Baltimore Orioles
Brandon Lyon – Arizona Diamondbacks
Bobby Jenks – Chicago White Sox
Huston Street – Oakland Athletics
B.J. Ryan – Toronto Blue Jays
J.J. Putz – Seattle Mariners
Jon Rauch – Washington Nationals
Matt Capps – Pittsburgh Pirates
Trevor Hoffman – San Diego Padres
Tier Three: Looking Over Their Shoulders
Kevin Gregg – Florida Marlins
Todd Jones – Detroit Tigers
Brian Fuentes – Colorado Rockies
Brian Wilson – San Francisco Giants
C.J. Wilson – Texas Rangers
Salomon Torres – Milwaukee Brewers
Ryan Franklin – St. Louis Cardinals
Joe Borowski –Cleveland Indians
Dan Wheeler – Tampa Bay Rays
Rafael Soriano – Atlanta Braves
Top 5 Middle Relievers
Carlos Marmol – Chicago Cubs
Hong-Chih Kuo – Los Angeles Dodgers
Heath Bell – San Diego Padres
Hideki Okajima – Boston Red Sox
Taylor Buchholz – Colorado Rockies
Keith is a native New Yorker and Northeastern Huskie alum. His two favorite things are sports and talking about sports. Take advantage of his in depth knowledge and gregarious nature and tune in each week for fantasy advice.