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NBA contributor Scott Sargent takes a look at the fallout from the Steve Nash-Robert Horry incident as well as other post-season musings.

From Top of the Key - May 16, 2007


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From Top of the Key - May 16, 2007
http://www.sportsgrumblings.com/basketball/articles/articles/119/1/From-Top-of-the-Key---May-16-2007/Page1.html
Scott Sargent
Scott Sargent is the Senior NBA fantasy analyst for Sports Grumblings. He is a lead writer for DroppingDimes.com, and has been featured on SI.com.  He also contributes his sharp analysis for Sports Grumblings for fantasy football fans.  
By Scott Sargent
Published on 05/16/2007
 
How will Robert Horry's mugging of Steve Nash effect the Suns-Spurs series?

If you missed game 4 of the San Antonio/Phoenix series, or have been living under a giant basketball rock for the last 48 hours, you may not have seen Robert Horry’s cheap-shot flagrant foul on Steve Nash with seconds remaining.  Nash’s teammates come to the rescue, some pushing and shoving ensues, Amare Stoudemire and teammate Boris Diaw take a couple of steps off of the bench before getting ushered back, everything’s kosher.  Not so much.

The NBA has officially suspended Horry two games for his shot to Nash, as well as one-game dings served to Stoudemire and Diaw.

While postseason fantasy hoops are not as prevalent as it is in the regular
 
Nowitzki might have won the League MVP, but he didn't win the hearts of his playoff fantasy faithful
season, those that are participating in a league this year have just received one of the biggest blows imagined.  Yes, those that drafted Dirk Nowitzki first overall aren’t doing too hot themselves, but that was Dirk’s fault.  Those that will be losing Stoudemire and his playoff averages of 24 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks for game 5 will be losing him because of a “ruling.”  And don’t think quite yet that “it’s only one game.”  It’s game 5 of a series-tied playoff.  It’s not very far-fetched to assume that the Spurs can easily take game 5 on the road and then simply wrap things up at home in game 6 – ending Stoudemire’s (as well as his Phoenix Suns teammates’) playoffs. 

If you’re feeling like some “opinion” is leaking through here – you’re right.  I think this is ridiculous.  Yes, it’s a rule, but if it’s going to be interpreted the way it is, there is still some objectivity to it and it needs to be revamped to at least a case-by-case basis for times like this.  With Golden State done (which I’ll get to in a second) and the Eastern teams hardly as exciting as the West, the NBA needs this series to be full-go for it to flourish.  With the suspensions, I’d be willing to wager that a certain percentage of fans will be watching the game only to see if Phoenix physically responds to the shot by Horry, along with those that want to see if the Suns can even compete without their big man.

Pat Burke will be logging in some time in the middle, simply by default.  Burke has averaged two minutes a game in the playoffs and has not had a point nor a rebound in this entire series.  Talk about a headliner. 

The other series in the West has come to a close.  Many saw this coming once the Jazz were able to win one on the road, as the finally took the series home 4-1.  For the third game in the last four, the Warriors were within reach of winning but fell very, very flat in the final minutes allowing the Jazz to seal the deal. 

One quick look at Deron Williams’ line of two points, seven assists and five
 
Fisher was insperational as the Jazz dominated the Warriors in Round 2
turnovers, how could Utah win this game? The Utah front court was just too much for Golden State to handle, that’s how.  Game 5 featured Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur all achieving double-doubles with Boozer and Kirilenko each achieving a 20-point, 10-rebound night.  Couple all of this with Derek Fisher draining four long-balls en route to a 20-point night of his own, and that’s the series. 

The Warriors put up a solid fight in the post-season, and didn’t take the “happy to be here” approach.  They thought they could win, and they did – against the best team in basketball - which is commendable.  Baron Davis, Jason Richardson and Stephen Jackson seem to get along very well given the fact that they only played together a few times this season.  The future of the team is obviously up in the air given the way the NBA is these days, but with Matt Barnes being the only unrestricted free agent, we might be in for a treat next year. 

Don’t look now, but we may have a couple of series’ in the East!  After the Detroit Pistons dominated the Chicago Bulls for two straight games, and then came back from a 19-point deficit to win the third, the Bulls have since rattled off two straight wins with one being in Detroit.  The Pistons now lead the series 3-2, but have to travel back to Chicago for game 6.           

In a strange turn of events, the Pistons failed to have anyone achieve the 20-point mark in game 5, while Luol Deng and Ben Gordon both put up at least 20 along with a Kirk Hinrich double-double.  Tyrus Thomas put up a commendable performance with 10 points, six rebounds, five steals and a block in 21 minutes.  Hopefully, this type of play isn’t a one-game anomaly for the Bulls, as the Pistons still have great numbers all-around.  Chauncey Billups is averaging 17 points, seven assists and nearly three 3-pointers in the series, while Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince are also averaging double-figure point totals.  

The Cleveland Cavaliers will host the New Jersey Nets on Wednesday night,
 
James is doing his best Michael Jordan impression in these playoffs
looking to end this series at home.  A few games ago, talks surrounded not letting Detroit get too much rest before the finals, but if LeBron James and company can take care of business, it looks like they’ll be the ones getting the rest.

Each one of these games has been extremely close, despite the score in game 2.  The Cavaliers average only one point more a game than the Nets, with both teams shooting 42% for the series.  Cleveland have the lead in the rebounds, but the Nets are out-assisting the Cavaliers by more than four a game. 

After watching Vince Carter have a crucial turnover in the previous game, my only question is: Which Jason Kidd will show up?  Will it be the one that hits five of six from the three-point line in game 3, or will it be the 2-13 performer that mustered five points in game 4?  Regardless, the Cavaliers will need to slow him down to keep the pace of the game at their level and Kidd is a key component to the success of the Nets in this series.



From Top of the Key - May 16, 2007 (cont)
 Baron Davis - Fantasy Basketball
Baron Davis' post-season performance has sent his fantasy value sky-high.

Looking Forward

For fantasy purposes, several Golden State Warriors elevated their draft status for next season.  Baron Davis showed us all what we knew he could do, if he stays healthy.  He missed a slew of games this past season – though playing in the most games since 2003.  For 82 games, he’s a top-tier point guard making his rotisserie value considerably higher than his head-to-head.  He’ll be the ultimate risk-reward pick next season, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him go in the first three rounds.   

If Al Harrington maintains his center-eligibility, his value obviously goes up – but owners must not forget about Andres Biedrins.  As of now, it looks like their in a time-share depending on the match-up, which isn’t something I’d be willing to gamble on for my fantasy team, but may provide decent value if they fall far enough in your drafts.

One player that I think may go a bit high next year from this group will be Monta Ellis.  This past year, owners were able to take him in the late rounds of their drafts (or even free agent lists if the league was shallow enough), but that won’t be the case this time around.  He’ll likely be a mid-round pick, which is about where his upside will land him.  Of course, if Richardson gets hurt again – then mid-rounds will be great for the MIP, but we’ll see. 

You can pretty much wave goodbye to the futures of Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall and Scot Pollard in Cleveland.  Pollard hasn’t had an impact all season, but both Jones and Marshall have had time on various fantasy rosters.  These three veterans still think they have some left in the tank, so it’s just a matter of where they land.  Marshall’s inability to have an interior presence doomed his fantasy impact since his days in Toronto.  Jones is still living off of his season in Miami where he was a solid option in every league.  What’s also ironic is that these two guys were to be “key additions” only two years ago.  Where they end up remains to be seen, but I wouldn’t count on much from either of them in fantasy leagues ever again.

And finally, the contract status of two big names will determine where they will provide services in the near future.  Both Chauncey Billups and Vince Carter will be looking for big deals this off-season.  Billups will very likely receive offers from Detroit, as he’s been nothing but huge for them over the last few years.  Carter’s days in New Jersey seem to be as good as over, even more so if the Nets drop game 5.  The Nets are a group of simply underachieving stars and it’s a shame since they’ll have Nenad Krstic back full strength next season.  Many pundits have Carter finishing his career up in Orlando, providing the Magic with some solid wing play that was frequently filled by names like Hedo Turkoglu and Trevor Ariza – making Carter an obvious upgrade in terms of talent.  What it does to the team will be realized soon enough.





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