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From Top of the Key - May 23, 2007
From Top of the Key - May 23, 2007
By Scott Sargent | Published  05/23/2007 | From the Top of the Key
Scott Sargent
Scott Sargent is the Senior NBA fantasy analyst for Sports Grumblings. He is a lead writer for DroppingDimes.com, and has been featured on SI.com.  He also contributes his sharp analysis for Sports Grumblings for fantasy football fans.  

View all articles by Scott Sargent
From Top of the Key - May 23, 2007
 Tim Duncan - Fantasy basketball
Can anyone stop the Tim Duncan juggernaut?

And then there were four.  Thirty-two teams battling it out in the regular season with hopes of making the field of sixteen in the post-season… and then eight, and now four.  Two in the East and two in the West. 

Match-ups that many had hoped for are long in the rear view as the Dallas Mavericks were upset in the first round by the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns were bounced in the last round after a controversial bout with the San Antonio Spurs.  The Miami Heat looked old and battered, getting swept by the Chicago Bulls who in turn were beat by the Detroit Pistons. 

The Spurs will lock horns with the Utah Jazz who have triumphed over the Houston Rockets as well as the Warriors.  The Pistons will spend the next few days of their season battling it out with the Cleveland Cavaliers – a team that they met in last years playoffs that took them to seven games.  There are several players to keep an eye on in these two series, and we’ll break them down in this week’s Top of the Key..

The Spurs/Jazz match up will provide basketball fans with two All-Star power forwards banging it out in the key, two European small forwards that bring a different style of play to the hardwood, and two point guards that should be considered among the top tier in the West. 

Tim Duncan was a top five finisher in the MVP voting and his recent play has driven many people to argue that he probably should have won the award outright.  Duncan has increased his scoring per game series-over-series in this post season, finishing with 27 a game in the bout against Phoenix – quite a difference from the 20 points per game that he registered in the regular season.  From the first round to the second round, Duncan also increased his rebounds by three a game and blocks by 1.4 a game, mostly thanks to his nine block outing in the game six that finished the season for the Suns.

The man that will be looking to slow down the surging Duncan comes from Duke University via Alaska: Carlos Boozer.  After a few seasons that were plagued by injuries, Boozer has put up solid numbers throughout the playoffs, not deviating much between series (24 points per game) aside from a three rebound per game jump due to the small-ball play from the Golden State Warriors.  Needless to say, the Spurs are definitely not the Warriors in terms of size, and Boozer will have to play some of the best ball of his life to reach 14 boards a game against Tim Duncan and company.

The aforementioned Euros would be none other than potent sixth man Manu Ginobili and one-time first round fantasy lock Andrei Kirilenko.  Both, ironically, had pretty rough starts to the playoffs but have come on as of late putting up solid across-the-board numbers.  Manu wasn’t even cracking 34% from the floor in the first round, but has recently upped his post season average to 40% thanks to a few solid nights, including a excellent 11-17 against the Suns in game 6.  In fact, that line was one of the best in the entire playoffs: 33 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, four 3-pointers and four steals in 36 minutes of play.  Absolutely sick.  He’ll provide stellar support of the bench for the entire series as Michael Finely will get the starting nod, long range and all.

Kirilenko’s first series was rougher than rough.  After not getting the playing time that he was used to, Kirilenko was emotional in a press conference that led to a lot of scrutiny about his mental strength and actual basketball ability.  AK47 responded to all of his critics by a monstrous conference semi-final series that saw him average 16 points, nine rebounds, three assists, a steal and three blocks a contest along with a 93% conversion rate from the free throw line.  He’ll look to continue this pace into the conference finals as his Utah Jazz will most definitely need all the help they can get.





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