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From Top of the Key - May 23, 2007
From Top of the Key - May 23, 2007
By Scott Sargent | Published  05/23/2007 | From the Top of the Key
Scott Sargent
Scott Sargent is the Senior NBA fantasy analyst for Sports Grumblings. He is a lead writer for DroppingDimes.com, and has been featured on SI.com.  He also contributes his sharp analysis for Sports Grumblings for fantasy football fans.  

View all articles by Scott Sargent
From Top of the Key - May 23, 2007 (cont)
 
Can Deron Williams provide Utah with a spark?

Though the last mentioned duel in the series, the one at point guard may actually be the most important.  The Spurs boast an All-Star in Tony Parker, while the Jazz have one of the newest members to Team USA for this summer in second-year guard Deron Williams.  Neither boasts a dominating outside presence, but neither is afraid to take a shot when needed.  Parker finished the season with a 52% from the field, an incredible number for a point guard.  Like Duncan, Parker increased his scoring contributions series-to-series, finishing with 21 per game against the Suns.  He’s been comfortably dropping about six assists a game while nabbing one steal – both season averages as well.

Williams has been one of the best stories of the season.  The Jazz were ridiculed for taking him over Chris Paul last season and have since thrust him into a starting role that also saw him log about 37 minutes a night.  In 80 games, Williams averaged 16 points and nine assists a game, and he’s rolled with those numbers right through the playoffs.  The points have remained consistent, with the assists increasing a full one per game to the 9.6 that Williams dished out against the Warriors.  What deserves some attention is the increase in rebounds from Williams.  After ripping down about three boards a game, Deron hit the glass hard in the opening series (five a game), and followed that up with four a night in the semi-finals. 

If only the East was as exciting.  Yes, LeBron James and his Cavaliers will dual it out with the Pistons, but the series that saw them beat the Nets in six games was far from exciting for anyone outside those two cities.  Almost complete opposite from Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, LeBron James actually saw his numbers go down from the first series to the second – which can be attributed to the improvement in the opponent that were the Washington Wizards.  Despite the “decrease,” James still averaged 25 points, seven rebounds, eight assists and a steal in the series.  A notable increase from his regular season figures is in his free throw percentage.  Though it hovered around 69% during the season, James converted 81% of his a free throws in the first round and 75% in the second.

The man that will be given the reward of guarding James in this series will be Tayshaun Prince.  Prince is one of the better defenders in the league due to his extreme length and quickness.  He’s given some of the best players fits in the playoffs, and has been to the conference finals each season since he was drafted four years ago.  Prince has seen a solid increase in his scoring and assist totals, and will continue to be a huge part of the Pistons’ successes throughout the series. 

The big men that are featured on each of these teams will be a huge portion of the game, despite the amount of time that the rest of their respective teams will have the ball.  Zydrunas Ilgauskas is coming off of a slower season compared to most, but is primed from last season’s playoff games to keep it going into this series.  Only averaging 12 points and eight rebounds a night during the season, Big Z came out firing in the first round to put up 19 points and 11 rebounds a night.  His scoring has reverted closer to the season average but he’s still averaging over 10 rebounds a game.  Without Ben Wallace to make matters difficult for Ilgauskas this year, you can bet he’ll keep crashing the glass with the best of them.

While Ben Wallace isn’t in the Motor City any longer, Rasheed Wallace is.  Like Ilgauskas, Wallace has stepped his game up from the regular season to now.  Only scoring 12 points a night during his 75 games this year, Wallace has scored 14.5 a night thus far into the playoffs.  In the six games against the Bulls, Wallace had 14 points, eight rebounds, one steal and one block a game – while chipping in several 3-pointers.  Fewer players offer the range of ‘Sheed while helping you out in blocks and steals.  His play will likely continue to give Cleveland fits, as it did in the post season last year.

Wrapping things up will be the guard play of each team.  The Cavaliers will go to battle with point guard Larry Hughes and shooting guard Sasha Pavlovic.  Pavlovic has come one strong as of late, but has seemed to lose his edge towards the end of the semi-finals.  Hughes is one player that is not doing well in the post season.  After shooting 40% from the floor this season, Hughes upped that mark to 44% in the first series, only to plummet to 32% in the bout with the Nets.  He’s still recording over 40 minutes a night, mostly thanks to his defense – but it’s pretty easy to say that Hughes is likely to be outplayed by the Pistons duo. 

Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton will present you with one of the best backcourts in the NBA.  Both seem to be able to score at will and when the shots aren’t falling, they’ll get to the free throw line where they combine to shoot about 89%.  Billups is historically bad against the Cavaliers, but Hamilton has had the knack to not only get under Cleveland’s skin, but to capitalize on his opportunities.  Billups is putting up MVP-caliber numbers through the post season with 20 points, three rebound, seven assists and a plethora of threes while Rip Hamilton refuses to be outdone with his 19 points, four rebounds and four assists to go with his 45% from the floor and 85% from the line in the semi-final match against Chicago. 

These next few days will show us who will continue improving, continue regressing, or even give us something that we totally didn’t expect at all.  Many are thinking that it’s going to be a Spurs-Pistons final this season, but only time will tell.



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