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Sports Grumblings -
http://www.sportsgrumblings.com/basketball/articles
Mock Draft Grumblings!
http://www.sportsgrumblings.com/basketball/articles/articles/179/1/Mock-Draft-Grumblings/Page1.html
Scott Sargent
 Scott Sargent is the Senior NBA fantasy analyst for Sports Grumblings. He is a
lead writer for DroppingDimes.com, and has been featured on SI.com. He also
contributes his sharp analysis for Sports Grumblings for fantasy football
fans. By Scott Sargent
Published on 09/27/2007 |
How far did Kobe fall?
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While most of you were likely sleeping last Wednesday night, I had the opportunity to represent Sports Grumblings in what is likely to be the most recent mock draft for fantasy basketball. Yes, it’s still pretty early to start gearing up for hoops considering that preseason does not start for a couple of weeks, but if you’re a die hard like me, there’s no time like the present.
The draft order of participants was as follows:
As you can see, it was quite the competitive list of experts from all over the web. While the draft results can be found here, what is important is obviously the team that was drafted by yours truly. Settings were standard, eight-category rotisserie (no turnovers). Obviously, 12 teams were involved. After 14 rounds of fury, my mock draft team looked like this:
PG: Raymond Felton, PG, Charlotte Bobcats (4.11)
SG: Kobe Bryant, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (1.2)
G: Kevin Martin, SG, Sacramento Kings (5.2)
SF: Travis Outlaw, SF/PF, Portland Trailblazers (10.11)
PF: Danny Granger, SF/PF, Indiana Pacers (6.11)
F: Al Thornton, SF/PF, Los Angeles Clippers (9.2)
C: Marcus Camby, C, Denver Nuggets (3.2)
C: Chris Kaman, C, Los Angeles Clippers (8.11)
U: T.J. Ford, PG, Toronto Raptors (7.2)
U: Dwight Howard, C, Orlando Magic (2.11)
BN: Delonte West, PG/SG, Seattle Supersonics (11.2)
BN: Chris Wilcox, PF/C, Seattle Supersonics (12.11)
BN: Jason Maxiell, SF/PF, Detroit Pistons (13.2)
BN: Louis Williams, PG/SG, Philadelphia 76ers (14.11)
What Did I Like About the Draft?
Landing Kobe Bryant second and then securing two of the better big men in the game was just golden for me. I currently have Bryant ranked tops in the fantasy game, and I’m from Cleveland, so that’s saying a lot. In a two-center game, if you don’t land two solid big guys before round six, you’re likely going to be taking fliers and hoping for this year’s version of Andres Biedrins. If Kobe was eligible at any other position in the game, he’d be a consensus lock for #1. Having his stats allowed me to use selections on guys that do not score much (Dwight Howard, T.J. Ford, etc), but fill up the sheet elsewhere.
Does Howard’s free throw shooting worry me? Yes, as I hate having liabilities in rotisserie rosters. However, with Bryant’s shooting and landing Kevin Martin (84%), Danny Granger (80%), and T.J. Ford (82%) should more than help me stop the bleeding caused by my big man.
What Didn’t I Like?
My tendencies to bank on upside could come back to haunt me. I am a big Danny Granger fan, and even more so in roto formats. He is multi-position, his percentages are solid, and he even provides long-range shooting. How many threes are most other teams going to record from their power forward? Not many. The one thing that I do not like about him is the fact that his upside will be capped unless Jermaine O’Neal is hurt or traded sometime this season. Both are possible, but his upside will not be fully maximized until that time.
I obviously made a huge play towards the injuries of Elton Brand and Greg Oden. Injuries landed me Mike Wilks and Mardy Collins towards the end of last season, and it was golden. Drafting Al Thornton and Chris Kaman is risky, given that both have a very slim chance of putting up Brand-like numbers, but taking a gamble that one of them outperforms expectations is alright by me. I wanted to nab Brand late in the draft, but Matt Buser got him right before me in the 12th round. Roto allows you to stash players, so that is a solid move.
Regarding Oden, the draft stock of LaMarcus Aldridge has reached epic proportions. While he fell to the sixth round in this draft (again, to Buser), I’m a lot more comfortable using a later round selection on Outlaw, who could be this year’s version of David West from 2005.
Biggest Reach in the Draft?
I am a huge Rajon Rondo fan this year, but Steve Alexander taking him in the first half of the sixth round is a bit much in my eyes. If it is any consolation, Randy Foye went right after that, but when other PG’s are still on the board (Mike Bibby, Stephon Marbury, Ford) it has to be a big gamble on his hustle stats. If this is any testament to where Rondo will end up come the beginning of the season, I may be resigning as fan club president.
Biggest Steal in the Draft?
While fantasy star and Mike Dunleavy, Jr. are typically not synonymous, falling to the 13th round of a 14 round draft is inexcusable. I am as guilty as anyone by taking Jason Maxiell ahead of him, but in my defense there was only a minute time limit and I was hoping to secure another big man since I do have Marcus Camby.
Other steals may include nearly the entire roster of Dennis Velasco. If being in the middle of a draft brings Kevin Durant in the fifth, Jason Richardson in the late sixth and Jamaal Tinsley in the 11th (he is a starting point guard), then count me in.
Overall Assessment
If you do not land an early pick, do not sweat it. I have seen LeBron James go first in some leagues and he fell to the fifth slot in this one. The top six picks have been fairly interchangeable, so anywhere in there will allow you a low-risk stud. If you’re later in the first round, you get your choice of two top-fifteen players. Whether it is a combination like Yao Ming/Josh Smith or Jason Kidd/Tim Duncan, you’re in good shape.
Again, I cannot stress enough to load up on two solid big men early. A quick look at Buser’s team, and you’ll see that his only two centers right now are LaMarcus Aldirdge (an upside play) and Troy Murphy. He has plenty of scoring in Leandro Barbosa, Corey Maggette and Richard Hamilton, but those are all mid-round selections. If you start loading up on swingmen early, your selection of big men later on will not be pretty. You’ve been warned!
If you start your draft off with low-risk picks, taking fliers later on will only pay off. If this team was real, I am not going to lose this league from taking Jason Maxiell in the 13th. If I use a second-rounder on Baron Davis and he comes back to bite me, that could be very costly. The middle rounds look to be where this thing will be won or lost yet again. Finding this year’s Kevin Martin, Monta Ellis, and Al Jefferson will be just as important as the picks made early on.
Good luck as the season progresses. I am sure we will have some more mock updates before long.
Questions and comments may be sent to scottsargent@sportsgrumblings.com
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