Bracket-ology

What goes into making a bracket? There are three phases. The obvious teams get put first. Regardless of what UCLA does in the Pac 10 tournament, they will have a place in the bracket. On the other extreme, several teams are in solely because of mandatory bids, either by winning their conference, or the conference tournament. Figure about 20 – 25 of the first group, more or less the Top 25, but not exactly. Add in 29 of the latter, with quite a bit of overlap. Some teams, win into the tournament, but have not shown enough in the regular season to merit consideration as “at large” bids. This year, San Diego University has won the West Coast Conference tournament, for example. This is why no number one seed, and only two number two seeds have ever lost their first game. Simply put, every year there are some teams in the tournament that are not good enough to give a top team a serious game.

The second phase is determining the bulk of the at large teams. Most of these teams will be either second tier teams in the major conferences, contenders in the mid major conferences, or season champions of the minor conferences. Examples would be Baylor, Kent State, and Davidson. To the casual fan, the schools are not going to be familiar, but, during the tournament, these are the ones that kill the bracket games scores, the “Bracket Busters.” Year after year, until they got famous for it, Gonzaga fit this group.

The final 8 – 10 spots are the so-called “bubble.” These are teams with both flaws and strengths. They can be non-contenders in the big conferences, second tier in the mid range and conferences, and top teams from the small conferences that do not win the conference tournament. Regardless the source, they will have finished the season well. Often, a team's recent history of success in postseason factors in as well, see again Gonzaga. The “bubble” bursts when a school, which would otherwise not be considered at all, forces its way in by winning a mid or small conference tournament, or going deep into a major conference playoff. The decisions get very difficult toward the end, since several teams are essentially equal. Year after year, the last team chosen to participate does well in the Big Dance, and the last team dropped, does well in the NIT.

The other thing in the decision process is the RPI, or Ratings Percentage Index is a computer-generated number, based on the games they have won, and lost, and the strength of their schedule, and their opponents’ schedule. By listing the schools from highest RPI score downward, you get a very good approximation of the weekly polls. However, since a computer does it, the RPI tends to give better coverage to smaller schools and smaller conferences. When the time comes to make the tough decisions, about the last few teams, the difference in RPI is often the deciding factor. However, it is important to remember, that it is only one factor among several.

As we go into Conference Tournament week, some of the automatic bids have been determined. First was the Ivy League, won by Cornell.

Conference winners (lock teams in bold)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
George Mason (Colonial)
Winthrop (Big South)
Siena (Metro Atlantic)
Drake (Missouri Valley)
Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
San Diego (West Coast)
Cornell (Ivy)

Not yet decided (Lock teams in bold)
America East
Big Sky
Horizon (Butler)
Mid-Eastern Athletic
Northeast
Patriot
Summit
Sun Belt
Big West
Conference USA (Memphis)
Mid-American (Kent St.)
Southland
Southwest Athletic
Western Athletic

Locks (AP Top 25)
North Carolina
Memphis
UCLA
Tennessee
Kansas
Texas
Duke
Wisconsin
Georgetown
Xavier
Stanford
Butler
Louisville
Notre Dame
Connecticut
Drake
Purdue
Vanderbilt
Michigan St.
Gonzaga
Washington St.
Indiana

Davidson
BYU
Marquette

Teams in the RPI top 35, not yet listed

Clemson
South Alabama
Oklahoma
Pitt
Kent State
Miami
UNLV
Gonzaga
Arizona
Southern Cal
Baylor
Illinois State
Dayton

Except for Illinois State, UNLV and South Alabama, each of these teams was ranked at some point. Arizona has a question mark because of the poor way they finished the season (3 – 7)

Historically, the major conferences get at least three teams each, often as many as six. Stronger Mid Major conferences, Missouri Valley, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, usually get at least two. In most other cases, only the conference champion will get in, unless a lock team loses in its conference tournament, like Gonzaga this season. San Diego won the automatic bid, and Gonzaga will get an at large bid, which puts Saint Mary's (Cal) at risk, despite their several weeks in the Top 25.

Alphabetically, these are the teams with shots, however faint, at large bids. Some have an edge because of nationally known players (Kansas State), major upset wins (Kansas State) or history (Ohio State, Florida, Kentucky, Southern Illinois).

Arizona State
Arkansas
Cleveland State
Florida
Houston
Kansas State
Kentucky
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
New Mexico
Ohio State
Oregon
Rhode Island
Saint Joseph
Southern Illinois
St. Mary's (Cal)
Syracuse
Temple
Texas A&M
Alabama Birmingham
Virginia Commonwealth
Villanova
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Western Kentucky 

Of this group, the most likely are Arizona State, Kansas State, New Mexico, and West Virginia. Saint Mary's (Cal) would normally be in, but San Diego's upset win of the conference tournament may knock them out, since Gonzaga is a given. Among the least likely are last year’s finalists, Ohio State and Florida.