And there were four...
The Final Four. No spectacle in collegiate competition draws as much
attention as the NCAA Tournament Finals. Even the losing teams are remembered
by their schools for generations. This is what it is all about.
North Carolina vs. Kansas
Where to
start? How about 1956, when the undefeated North Carolina Tarheels met the Wilt
Chamberlain led Jayhawks through three over time periods, in what is
believed by historians to be the greatest game ever played. Or 1952, when a
little used guard, from McPherson Kansas,
named Dean Smith, helped the Jayhawks win their first National
Championship. Then there was 1988, when one time North Carolina assistant Larry Brown
led the Jayhawks to their second championship, and soon left for the NBA. Or
there is 1989, when Dean Smith recommended his assistant Roy Williams,
though Kansas
will be facing NCAA Sanctions for Larry Brown's misdeeds. In case the point is
lost, these schools have history.
The North
Carolina Tarheels are the best offensive team in the nation, and in this company,
that says a lot. Tyler Hansbrough has no peers, though a match up
against Kevin Love would be interesting. At the point, Ty Lawson
is back at full throttle, and holds his own with anyone in the tournament. What
sets North Carolina
apart is the third man in the troika, Wayne Ellington, who provides an
athletic wing scorer. No team has a third star to match. Off the bench Danny
Green has been instant. In the best Roy Williams tradition, these Tarheels
like to run, and have a lethal secondary break, often for 3pt shots.
Defensively, North Carolina
has not fared as well. They are good, but not elite. For the most part, they
have not had opponents explode for big games. What has troubled them more is
balanced scoring, such as the loss to Maryland,
with had four players in double figures. Also, North Carolina has played relatively well in
big games. One danger sign is that North Carolina
has been most vulnerable in the paint, which is a Kansas strength.
The
Tarheels' difficulties against balanced attacks bode well for the Jayhawks, who
lead the nation in scoring margin. Even the twice National Champions from Florida did not boast
such balance. Everyone in Kansas'
seven deep rotation has led the team in scoring at least twice. Everyone has
scored at least 20 points in a game. Everyone can run the floor, finish on the
break and handle the ball. In Kansas' win over
Texas, in the
conference tournament, 25 of the 26 baskets were assisted. They shoot a great
many 3pt shots, with great efficiency. Brandon Rush and Mario
Chalmers are the principle snipers, but Russell Robinson cannot be
left alone. Not to be forgotten is Sherron Collins, the team's best
penetrator, and defender. Under the basket, the Jayhawks have a three man post
rotation of senior Darnell Jackson, possibly the most improved player in
the nation, Darrell Arthur, and Sasha Kaun. Kansas is, at heart, a half court team,
which runs off defensive plays more than necessity. Kansas
also has the two best seniors remaining, in Robinson and Jackson, which gives
them valuable leadership.
Defensively,
Kansas is
elite, possibly the best in the nation, depending on your standards. Just ask Stephen
Curry, who spent the Regional Final with three different players in his
face. The Jayhawks are extremely quick, athletic and big, both on the perimeter
and under the basket. They can match up with almost anything, but they have
been hurt by third scorers, such as Texas Damion
James and Kansas
State's Bill Pullen. This
makes Wayne Ellington one to watch.
On the whole, this is a classic match of quality versus depth. On the
perimeter, the speed, size and athleticism of both teams is outstanding. Ty
Lawson and Wayne Ellington may have an edge as scorers, but the four player
rotation of Robinson, Rush, Chalmers and Collins may well match quality with
quantity. Underneath, no one compares to Hansbrough, but the Jayhawks have
three big bodies to run at him, and North
Carolina can be scored on from the blocks. Roy
Williams is one of the best that has ever coached, but Bill Self is one of the
rising coaches in the nation. He has shed the mantle of best coach never to
make the Final Four. He may shed the title of best coach never to win a
championship, before he ever acquires it.
UCLA vs. Memphis
UCLA and Memphis
have history as well. Not as deep as the UNC/KU saga, but they played for the
National Championship back in the John Wooden era. It was one of UCLA's long
string of championships, and one of Memphis
record tying two appearances in the finals, without a win.
UCLA is a power offensive team. Defining them is point guard Derrick
Collison. His match up against Derrick Rose is a hoped for classic.
Collison wanted to be a track star, so comments about his 'quicks' is almost
redundant. When UCLA struggled against Western Kentucky,
he was on the bench with foul trouble. When Texas A&M made their run to a
double digit lead, it was partly because of his turnovers. But when the Bruins
came back on the Aggies, it was his dribble penetration that sparked the
offense. Good or bad, how Collison goes, so go the Bruins. Obviously, Collison
is the spark to the engine. The stroke is Kevin Love. What could be
written here that has not already been said of the big freshmen would not fill
a line. Suffice to say that only Tyler Hansbrough competes as a presence in the
paint. Love has been tested in deep water, Stanford's Lopez Twins for example,
and produces in big games. Write in the double-double, and move on. That would
be to swing man Josh Shipp and big guard Russell Westbrook. Both
are keys to an outstanding defense, but also at the end of many of Love's
famous outlet passes on the break and Collison's assists in half court. Dangerous
3pt men, Westbrook shooting 35.4% from deep, Shipp 32.4%, they are even more
dangerous in transition. If any one of these guys is injured, or in foul
trouble, UCLA can struggle. They each play 30 minutes a night.
Defensively, you return to Shipp and Westbrook, and add in Luc
Richard Mbah a Moute, the power forward. All are extremely quick and
strong. When UCLA is down, and this is a team that has played from behind, the
defense has been constant. While the match up at point guard would put Collison
on Derrick Rose, more than likely Shipp and Westbrook will share a large part
of the task. On the boards, look no further than Love and his 10.7 rebound
average. Mbah a Moute and Lorenzo Mata-Real add in another 9.3 and
Mata-Real also contributes 1.3 blocked shots.
UCLA is balanced on offense and stout on defense. They have star power
only North Carolina
can match. However, the bench is not strong, and the starters play heavy
minutes. They will be challenged by a Memphis
team that matches their athleticism, and has better depth.
When you speak of Memphis
offense, you start with the guards. No one, not even the Tarheels, has a better
pair. Chris Douglas-Roberts is the team leader from the shooting guard
spot. Averaging almost 18 points, he could be averaging much more. A 41.7%
shooter from 3pt range, CDR is also lethal on the break and on penetration,
with an overall rate of 54.5%. Very tall at 6'7”, he can get shots off over
almost everyone. Douglas-Roberts is the undisputed leader, even with Derrick
Rose, on the team. Then there is Rose, the freshman point guard. In a
season sometimes called “The Year of the Freshman”, Rose stands out as one of
the very best. Also tall for his position, Rose adds 4.4 rebounds to his 14.6
points and 4.5 assists per game. Underneath, the Tigers employ a rotation of
three big men, Joey Dorsey, Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggert. They
combine for 22 points, 20.5 rebounds, and 4.7 blocked shots per game. The
Tigers like to run, and can struggle a bit in half court. In their only loss, Tennessee slowed the
game down, and beat them on the glass. Douglas-Roberts can make his own shot,
but as a team, they are more scorers than shooters. But when they are able to
run, no one has slowed them down.
Defensively, no one puts more pressure on the ball, which will make the
UCLA game interesting. All five of the starters average over a steal per
contest, which fuels the running game. In the regional final game, the defense
handled one of the best guard tandems in the nation, Texas' D.J Augustin and A.J.
Abrams. Against the Bruins, they will be facing as much athleticism, and
more size. They have the advantage of a deep bench, should fatigue become an
issue.
Overall the UCLA vs. Memphis
promises some of the best defense to be found anywhere. Both teams have speed,
size, athleticism, and team fundamentals guarding the ball, and score well off
turnovers. The ability of Collison to handle Memphis'
pressure bode large, also the ability of Memphis
to force the pace. UCLA has a size advantage in the paint, and is more
accustomed to very physical play than Memphis.
On the other hand, UCLA is more prone to slumps, and sloppy play, which Memphis is very capable
of exploiting. If the pace ever makes fouls or fatigue a large factor, Memphis has an advantage
in numbers.
As befits a small tournament, with nothing but elite teams, it is
possible to make an argument for any of the four. Both the semifinal games
match deep balanced teams against teams with significant post talents and
lightning quick point guards. Three of the four teams are elite in defensive
terms, and the speed at perimeter is consistently outstanding. When all is said
and done, the new champion will have earned it against the best.