Derrick Rose probably won't produce the kind of numbers you expect from a first round draft pick right away.

Much in the way we were once excited by the arrival of the “new girl” in school, so to do we tend to get excited over the annual influx of new talent into the NBA.  One player can make all the difference between winning, losing, and generally remaking a franchise.  Look at the difference that the likes of Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, and more recently, LaBron James have made in changing the very make-up of their respective teams.  This can hold true in fantasy as well—the addition of one key newcomer can make the difference between being competitive and winning. 

The problem fantasy owners face is one of being overly excited about these hot commodities, akin to developing schoolboy a crush.  More problematic is the fact that owners seldom see impact rookies like the ones mentioned above.  This year is certainly no exception.  While there are a number of quality players, “A students” if you will, there are no clear-cut valedictorians in the way Shaq or LeBron may have been.  Still, there are players that we can look to with the hopes of their making significant contributions to fantasy basketball rosters during the ’08-09 season.

Head of the Class (A students):

Michael Beasley – Power Forward – Miami Heat: Overall, Beasley will have both key elements for rookie success—talent and opportunity.  On physical talent alone, Beasley is easily the best player among this season’s rookie crop.  Provided Dwayne Wade is fully healthy, Beasley should start the season as the Heat’s number two scoring option, or, at the very least, option 2-A behind The Matrix, Shawn Marion.  In any event, Beasley should get plenty of looks.  Also, more so than most players with his elite athleticism, Beasley is a gifted rebounder, and in a run and gun style Heat offense, there should be plenty of chances off the glass.  As with almost all rookies, don’t overlook the adjustment period that Beasley will undoubtedly be faced to deal with.  As a young player learning the ropes over an 82 game season, expect some ups and downs in his statistical performance.

O.J. Mayo – Shooting Guard – Memphis Grizzlies: Like Beasley, Mayo should get plenty of minutes on a rebuilding Grizzlies team.  A true shooting guard, in both size and skill set, Mayo should see extensive minutes right out of the gate in what projects to be a fairly up-tempo Memphis offense.  Rudy Gay is the only other legitimate scoring option on the team, save for the emergence of either, Mike Conolly, Kyle Lowry, or someone else.  Rather than stealing minutes and opportunities from Mayo, Gay should compliment the rookie.  If nothing else, it allows Mayo to be a good teammate first and go-to guy second, thereby easing the transition to the NBA grind.  Also, Mayo is a better than average ball-handler and passer from the two-guard position, so expect a useful number of assists, although turnovers could be an issue, as they often are with rookies.

Derrick Rose – Point Guard – Chicago Bulls:  The first pick in the draft isn’t always the most productive player from the draft, not in statistical terms anyway.  Rose is likely to fall into that category, as his game and his role is that of ball distributor and floor general. While the Bulls don’t necessarily have a clear primary scoring option, it would be a stretch to envision Rose occupying that role, really at any point during the season.  With a new head coach (Vinnie Del Negro) and a rookie at the point, there will likely be a lengthy adjustment period for the entire Bulls team.  Expect Kirk Hinrich (an extremely valuable fantasy player two years ago) to see a lot of minutes early on as Rose gets acclimated to the NBA on a trial basis.  Still, Rose was drafted to play, not warm the bench, so he’ll likely see starters minutes at some point, just not early on.  On the year, expect solid assist numbers with a poor shooting percentage and high turnovers to go with a near total absence of 3 pointers, as Rose doesn’t yet have NBA range.

Second Tier (B students):

Jerryd Bayless – Point/Shooting Guard – Portland Trailblazers: A classic combo guard, Bayless should see most of his ‘08-‘09 minutes at the shooting guard position, although long-term, his body suggests he’s probably better suited for the point.  At 6-3, 205, Bayless should be able to utilize his blazing speed to break down larger defenders off the dribble and become a legitimate scoring threat, especially when playing along side more experienced ball-handler, Brandon Roy.   It remains to be seen what kind of role he’ll occupy with Portland, but he looks to be a scorer first, and passer second — for now.  Not only does his skill set translate well to the NBA game, his specific talents should seamlessly integrate with the Portland game plan. Without a truly dominant scoring option on the team, Bayless should get a fair number of touches, even on a relatively deep Trailblazers team.  Depending on the way shots are distributed, Bayless could slash and shoot his way into the upper division of the rookie class.

Kevin Love – Power Forward – Minnesota Timberwolves: Being traded to the Timberwolves on draft day can only boost Love’s value.  The team is already fairly strong up front, with primary scoring option Al Jefferson roaming the middle and athletic forward Corey Brewer having found his way during last season’s second half.  Love isn’t a prototypical power forward, or, he doesn’t seem like he will be.  As with most rookies, no one can say with any amount of certainty how Love will perform in the NBA, especially not in his first year.  Still, he seems the obvious choice to man the four coming out of the gate so, assuming his production is at least adequate, Love’s minutes should be plentiful.  Love’s plus-passing game should be an asset on a team without a refined point guard.  However, don’t expect much production, especially in the season’s early going.  As the Timberwolves find their own level, if the Timberwolves find their own level, Love could see his production (and his value) rise as he too finds his way.  Honestly, even though the tools are there, it would be hard to recommend Kevin Love as anything more than a late, and I mean late round flyer pick.

Third Tier (Rated E for Effort):

Mario Chalmers – Point Guard – Miami Heat: Watch Chalmers with a close eye, especially as the season wears on.  He’s a first round talent who happened to be picked in the second round, and he couldn’t have been drafted into a more perfect situation.  Dwayne Wade is a shooting guard that works best with the ball in his hands, so the Heat point guard is likely to see a diminished role.  Yet, with the lack of depth at the 1 in Miami, it’s clear that Chalmers will eventually see considerable playing time.  The learning curve is generally steeper for point guards, and Chalmers season should play out closer to the rule than the exception.  As his understanding of his position and the NBA grow, look for increased minutes.  Production remains to be seen, but the same can be said of every member of the NBA’s freshman class.

Brook Lopez – Center - New Jersey Nets: The center position is always thin, so scouring the rookie class for the latest, greatest 7-footer is something of an annual exercise.  Lopez is one of the latest, but he isn’t exactly the greatest.  He has prototypical NBA size (7-0, 260), but it’s unclear if he has an NBA-ready game.  Not only is the status of his game up in the air, so is the matter of his playing time.  Already entrenched in the Nets center rotation are youngsters Sean Williams and the often-exciting Josh Boone—both superior offensive players.  Lopez holds some “upside”, but it would be more advisable to draft a more well-known (predictable) commodity at center, at least until Lopez has a chance to prove himself on the NBA level.

Fourth Tier (Remedial Tutoring Recommended):

Eric Gordon – Shooting Guard – Los Angeles Clippers: Paired with new Clipper Barron Davis, Gordon looked poised to assume a significant role in La-La Land.  Alas, a number of questionable Clipper signings (sound familiar?) have clouded the playing time picture, especially in the backcourt.  While Jason Williams was signed, in theory, to back up Barron Davis at the point, Ricky Davis was also brought into a guard rotation that already features Cuttino Mobley.  I don’t think anyone questions Gordon’s skills.  Going into the season, the biggest obstacle will likely be one of playing time, or lack thereof.  Make yourself aware of his development, and watch the Clippers (difficult as it may be) for any change in health of philosophy.

Danilo Gallinari – Forward – New Your Knicks: A scorer and adept passer (not a rebounder), Gallinari has been compared by many to former NBA star Detlef Schrempf.  For those of you without a way-back machine, take the time to use the power of the internet to understand that comparison is a generous one.  New coach Mike D’Antoni should bring an up-tempo offense to the Knicks, but that should be of little consequence to Gallinari early on.  There are a number of Knicks that want to be scorers and little else (especially good teammates)—Zach Randolph, Eddy Curry, Jamal Crawford, and [gulp] Stephon Marbury, just to name a few.  So, even if he’s able to play noticeable minutes, Gallinari isn’t likely to see a lot of touches.  Feel free to pass on draft day, but don’t be unaware of his talent.

Special Ed (Held Back):

Greg Oden – Center – Portland Trailblazers: Greg Oden is the great unknown commodity, even more than the average first-year player.  He’s penciled in to start for a Portland team that is already fairly deep on the frontline with Channing Frye, Joel Pryzbilla, and emerging star LaMarcus Aldridge.  Clearly, based on his collegiate performance, Oden should provide good rebounding and a ton of blocks, but not much else.  More of a mystery will be his. playing time, and the status of his health.  Microfracture surgery is no small surgery, something I can attest to first-hand. Sure, I don’t have a team of doctors and physical therapists working with me around the clock to ensure my full recovery, nor am I a highly tuned 19-year-old professional athlete.  Still, I had the same surgery, on the same knee, mere days after Oden, and I still have, pain, numbness and occasional instability.  Should you drop him down on your draft boards because my knee hurts?  No, but you should be aware that any surgical procedure and corresponding layoff can drastically alter a player’s development.

It is unclear what any rookie will do, but one thing that is abundantly clear is the fact that rookies seldom outperform their draft position.  And in many ways, assembling a winning fantasy basketball team (or any fantasy team) is all about finding value.  In most cases, if you’re going to find real value, chances are it will be by waiting out the draft entirely and watching the in-season developments with a keen eye.  Watching for changes in minutes, usage patterns, and tracking injuries throughout the NBA season will allow you to be poised to make informed and calculated decisions on which rising rookies to swoop in on before the competition. 

Fortunately, you have SportsGrumblings.com and our crack fantasy basketball staff to help you along the way.  Look to us for expert advice throughout the NBA season to gain an advantage over the competition.  We’re here to serve you.  In the meantime, if there’s something, anything, you want to see covered at SportsGrumblings.com let us know.  In fact, you can contact me directly at: damianschaab@sportsgrumblings.com