Tayshaun Prince has been pounding the glass since Chauncey Billups left town.
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Okay…here we are, a full two weeks into the season, and what a season it’s shaping up to be. Already we’re faced with a number of surprises (the New York Knicks) and disappointments (the San Antonio Spurs). Here at Hello, ROTO, we’re dealing with much of the same—players who have come seemingly out of nowhere to take the fantasy world by storm, and players that have yet to live up to even a fraction of their draft-day potential [cough] Elton Brand [cough]. In this week’s installment, we’re going to take a look at a little bit from Column A (surprises), and a little bit from Column B (disappointments). By looking at both ends of the fantasy spectrum, we can perhaps better prepare you for the long road ahead—a road wrought with peril. There’s fun too, but mostly peril…but, mostly fun. The SportsGrumblings.com staff is here to (hopefully) act as something of a tour guide on your treacherous journey to… Wait…where is it you want to go again? Oh yah, the winner’s circle. Since there’s no one definitive way to get there, we will do our (my) best to point you in the right direction. We’re like the gas station attendants of the fantasy world, here to give you the easiest way back to the interstate.
T. J. Ford – Point Guard – Indiana Pacers: Ford was something of a sleeper coming into the season—no easy task for a player drafted in 100% of leagues. However, due to concerns over injuries and even playing time (the Pacers also have the gun-toting Jamal Tinsley and the under-appreciated Jarrett Jack on the roster), Ford was something of a wild card. Ford was drafted as early as the 5th round and as late as the 10th, clearly illustrating the divergent valuations of his talent(s). To begin the year, Ford started slowly, at least in terms of assists—probably the main reason fantasy owners targeted him in the first place. In fact, through his first four games, Ford struggled to stuff the stat line in any way that didn’t involve putting the ball in the basket. In the three games since, he’s put up, well, monster numbers from the point (18.3 points, 9.3 assists, and 8 rebounds per game). The rebounds are a bit out of character, but going back to his Milwaukee days, he’s shown the ability to rebound better than his diminutive stature would otherwise suggest. Throw in the fact that Ford is a high percentage player, and you have the makings of a Hello, ROTO darling on your hands. Even better, the near anonymity he’ll play with in Indiana makes him a nice buy-low candidate for those looking to broker an early deal.
Kobe Bryant – Shooting Guard – Los Angeles Lakers: Surely this is some kind of sick, Hello, ROTO joke, right? Well, not really. If ever you were going to be able to pry Kobe (THE Kobe) away from one of your fellow owners, now would be the time. A consensus top-3 pick in every draft on any day, regardless of format, Kobe hasn’t lived up to expectations. To start the 08-09 season, Kobe has averaged fewer minutes and shots per game than he has in a decade, resulting in reduced numbers across the board. There were indications that Coach Phil Jackson was going to give Bryant some much-deserved rest to start the year, and, well, that’s been exactly the case. So far, both Jordan Farmar and Trevor Ariza are playing and shooting more, especially Ariza. And, somehow, the ageless wonder Derek Fisher is still getting his 27 minutes every night. All these factors are cutting into the Lakers reliance (some would say over reliance) on Kobe. Yet, something tells me that as the season develops, and winning games becomes more and more crucial, Kobe will get back to doing what he does better than anyone in the game today—dominating. So, if there’s a frustrated owner that will at least listen to an offer for last year’s NBA MVP, do what you can to gauge their interest and try to broker a deal—that is, if you think you have the horses. A player like Bryant won’t (and shouldn’t) come cheap.
Tayshaun Prince – Shooting Forward – Detroit Pistons: Following the trade of Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess to the Denver Nuggets, Tayshaun Prince has seen his minutes increase dramatically. In turn, his production and overall value have skyrocketed. Since a 27-point outburst against the Raptors on November 5, Prince has continued to assert himself on the offensive end tallying 23 and 26 points in back-to-back games. If that weren’t enough, the always-reliable shooter has started pounding the glass with authority, averaging 9+ rebounds in his last 4 contests. It’s difficult to say how long this trend will continue. Much of that depends on what the Pistons do or don’t do to fortify their front line. If McDyess is resigned (as many expect) the rebounding burden will be removed from Prince’s narrow shoulders. Until then, or until the Pistons settle on a different front court rotation, Prince should see his minutes and production continue at an elevated level. For now, strap yourself in and enjoy the ride.
Kenyon Martin – Point Forward – Denver Nuggets: I’ve never been a fan of Kenyon Martin—he’s always injured, and seldom hustles. Case in point, he’s missed the last two games with an injured wrist (nothing really new there). Yet, up until that point, Martin was a valuable fantasy commodity. In a game largely decided by value, Martin had been playing above his perceived value—by a significant margin. Due primarily to the Nuggets gamble-oriented team defense, Martin was enjoying an enormous increase in his number of steals per game, going from a career rate of 1.2 to a career best 2.2 in the first few games of 08-09. Martin’s injury isn’t viewed as serious, and he should be rejoining the Nuggets rotation on Thursday night. Additionally, with Allen Iverson’s departure, there should be more shots for Denver’s complimentary players going forward, which means additional scoring opportunities for Martin, if only a few. Hey, any little bit helps. The rest of Martin’s game is perhaps better suited for the H2H game, but if he’s able to maintain his elevated level of play on the defensive end, the accumulation of the hard to come by blocks and steals makes him valuable in ROTO as well.
Spencer Hawes – Center – Sacramento Kings: I’ll admit, I was skeptical. I had chalked up Hawes’ early success to the Kings injury misfortunes, specifically with Brad Miller. Yet, even with Miller in tow, Hawes is getting significant playing time. And, as we’ve pointed out at Hello, ROTO over and over, input = output. Sure, he’s playing less, but only by about 4-5 minutes per game—certainly not enough to justify dropping a productive player, especially one who’s averaging better than 2 blocks per game. What’s more is that Hawes is shaping up to be very Brad Miller-like, in that he can play inside or outside as the situation dictates (9-16 from 3-point territory on the year). It has yet to be seen how coach Reggie Theus will handle his frontcourt rotation, one that includes Hawes, Miller, and early-season surprise Jason Thompson, but something tells me they will all get enough playing time to make them useful fantasy players.
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damianschaab@sportsgrumblings.com