Tracy McGrady's numbers are below his career norms, making it a good time to buy low.
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The third week of fantasy basketball is in the books. Now is the time when impatient owners make hasty moves and the opportunistic can pounce. Some stocks are high and should be sold. Some are low and should be bought. Read on.
Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks
While Mavericks fans sit and see Devin Harris drop 30 points, night in and night out—wondering both what could have been, and what has happened to their franchise—we get to sit here and contemplate what can be salvaged from this team. Anyone who picked up Antoine Wright at the onset of the season because he was starting can give up on him anytime now. He has clearly fallen out of Rick Carlisle’s favor, as he has logged more than 20 minutes exactly once on the Mavericks way to 2 – 7. Erick Dampier is reasserting himself as the “second-best center in the NBA”. Seriously, he is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game, thanks in large part to his 16 boards against the Lakers (12 of those were offensive) and 18 in Chicago. “Ericka” rebounds enough to give him value in any format and can chip in 16 on occasion like he did versus the Bulls. If you don’t need the points on a consistent basis but could use the boards, try pouncing on the impatient Dampier owner after one of his patented three game scoring disappearances.
Houston Rockets
While the Rockets managed to do what few have done (lose to the Spurs), they do find themselves atop what can be best described as the middling Southwest Division. The big three are averaging 16.7 (Tracy McGrady), 16.7 (Yao Ming), and 14.2 (Ron Artest), all of which are down considerably from their career averages. The insertion of Artest into the Houston lineup will obviously affect all of their numbers over the season, but the season is young and their scoring should increase. The early shortcomings of the Rockets in comparison to the broad preseason expectations of their ascendancy to the top tier of NBA teams, and the coinciding underperformance of the big three, may have driven their stock down in the eyes of their owners. Artest, Yao, and T-Mac may be there for the taking, and their numbers should rebound a bit back towards their norms.
Memphis Grizzlies
This just in: O.J. Mayo likes to score. Who doesn’t though? The rookie is averaging 21 points per game. His averages in the other statistical categories are not as impressive and slightly inflated because of a few aberrations. While the Mayo owner should be guaranteed at least 15 points every night, the 4.6 boards a game he’s averaging is not a safe assumption, and 3 would be more in line with what he’ll generally give you. The occasional nine or ten rebound night he is capable of giving you would be gravy. I wouldn’t advocate trading him unless the value is right, but if the value is there, and you as a Mayo owner can sell very high; you would be crazy not to consider doing so.
New Orleans Hornets
Thus far, Tyson Chandler has performed slightly below the expectations he built owners up for the past two seasons. He is averaging less than double figures in points and rebounds. Sure, last season was the first in which Chandler averaged more than 10 points per game, but he has averaged at least 9 rebounds per game since the 2004-’05 season and at least 11 for the past two. At the very least, an up-tick in rebounds per game can be expected. The scoring can realistically jump back into the 11 PPG range, as well. If you can, now would be the time to steal him from his disappointed owner.
San Antonio Spurs
While Greg Popovich puts forth his best effort in the Donald Sutherland look-alike contest he is clearly participating in, Roger Mason finds himself the beneficiary of an increasing role in an offense lacking Tony Parker and Emanuel Ginobli. In his five games leading up to action against the Kings Sunday night, Mason has given Spurs nation 13.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and 3.4 APG. He has also shot a very useful 11-for-28 from downtown in that stretch. Even when Ginobli and Parker return, it would seem that there could be use for Mason’s skill set in San Antonio, so his value may not be only in the short term. His field goal percentage has been down for the last three of those five games (a combined 7-for-28), but his ability to rebound respectably from the two-guard spot has given him value in those three games even with the struggles from the floor. He’s still available in over 40% of both Yahoo! and ESPN leagues.
Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets
The 5 – 4 Nuggets are 4 – 1 with new old point guard, Chauncey Billups. While it is probably a little early to project a long-term drop in APG and RPG, it is probably safe to say that the scoring could easily stay over the 18 points per game that he’s currently enjoying. It certainly would not shock me if he bettered his career high in scoring from three seasons ago while executing George Karl’s offense.
Nene Hilario has been playing about 35 minutes a game (his career high is 32.5 MPG way back in the 2003-’04 season, which is the last year he played more than 64 games), and has played in every game this season, despite being sick with the flu. His numbers are up across the board, and his averages are all at career high levels, due largely to his shocking good health. While one probably shouldn’t trade players based solely on being injury prone, Nene finds himself ranked 12th overall in Yahoo! Leagues. While he could remain extremely productive if healthy, his stock probably will not reach levels this high at any other point this season. The unseasoned fantasy newb could conceivably bite on his value thus far, and targeting early under performers like Elton Brand, might not be a terrible idea for the opportunistic Hilario owner.
Minnesota Timberwolves
If you were unfortunate enough to suffer through the Warriors/Timberwolves game, you saw Rashad McCants play an instrumental role in a complete collapse. Wittman left McCants in to take what seemed like every shot on offense for the greater part of the fourth quarter and the ensuing overtime. Then McCants turned the ball over with time running down in a two-point game. Do not be misled by the 18 points McCants scored in that game. Wittman wasn’t, and McCants played just 9 minutes of the next game. Hopefully this performance made it crystal clear that McCants should see spare playing time at best. If you do own him, watch his minutes carefully and do not be afraid to cut bait.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Watching this thunder (they don’t get a capital ‘t’ until they win again) team makes you wonder what the over/under might be on all those Okies in Muskogee deciding they were better off without an NBA team. While Kevin Durant nurses his ankle injury back to health, his minutes have been limited. Jeff Green has stepped up while Durant has been limited, averaging just over 20 points and 7 boards in the three games since Durant missed his first game of the season. It is probably just a temporary bump. There isn’t much past those two to even contemplate as far as the thunder are concerned, unless they start counting stats accumulated against OKC fractionally.
Portland Trail Blazers
While Greg Oden’s return sputtered out of the gate with an uninspiring 16-minute outing, his second and third games saw him go off for 11-and-11 and 13-and-8 while adding 4 and 3 blocks, respectively. Those numbers were in just 24 minutes per game. If the Oden owner in your league was expecting the world right out of the gate and only looks at numbers in passing, you may be able to pry him from their grip while his minutes work up to full-time play. In the meantime, Joel Pryzbilla owners probably do not need to cut ties just yet, as he is still a productive rebounder provided he gets even 20 minutes of playing time. He has averaged over 8 rebounds a game since Oden’s return and should not be cut until the minutes have been cut with permanency.
Utah Jazz
It must feel like a cruel world for Jazz fans that watched their team race out to a 5 – 1 record without Deron Williams, only to have them split the two games he started in his return, and then have him decide he probably wasn’t ready in the first place. Williams has missed the past two Jazz games with his start against the Suns Monday night in question. Also dinged up in Utah are Andrei Kirilenko (finger) and Matt Harpring (ankle), and Mehmet Okur is currently with his ailing father in Turkey. With all of these players missing time, the only member of the Jazz who can currently be counted on for consistent contribution is Carlos Boozer.
Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors
Anthony Morrow? His 37-point, 11 rebound performance elicited WTF’s across the country. It was Morrow’s first start. He wasn’t drafted last summer. He was starting because Don Nelson liked the match up against the clippers (also lower-casing them) better than regular starter C.J. Watson. Logic would dictate that Morrow will not shoot 75% from the field in every start, but in his previous three games (in which he got increasing amounts of playing time—12, 13, and 15 minutes) he scored 7, 8, and 8 points. He clearly has shown an ability to score some points, but let’s not forget that Austin Croshere scored 34 points in a game not even two years ago, so there shouldn’t be too much made of this outburst. He would be worth taking a flier on, but if he doesn’t score 37 against Portland Tuesday night, do not be surprised.
Los Angeles Clippers
Reports from the little ‘c’ clippers are that Baron Davis is still in the midst of an adjustment period to the new offense. His PPG are lower than they have been since his second year in Charlotte, and his RPG are the lowest since his rookie campaign. His assists are about where you would expect them to be, but it would be reasonable to expect this to be his low-point of the season. Now would be the time to capitalize on that.
Los Angeles Lakers
After a ‘shocking’ loss in Lakerland, the one-loss Lakers surely find themselves searching for answers as to why their season is unraveling at the seams. In all seriousness, Andrew Bynum did allow Kwame Brown to drop a double-double on him, which in addition to being perhaps the most embarrassing thing a reputable big man can have happen, would indicate that young Bynum will not be an every night game changer. Pau Gasol was also less than inspiring in their loss, as the bigs combined for only 23 points. Being potentially soft notwithstanding, Gasol and Bynum (soon to be a sitcom on public access in LAX metro-area) are still very productive fantasy players. As far as widely available Lakers are concerned, Trevor Ariza is now averaging 10.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and a very helpful 2.0 SPG, while his performance has garnered increased playing time late in the game. His FT% is a less than desirable 59%, but he’s not getting to the line enough to truly screw you over in that department.
Phoenix Suns
Quick Leandro Barbosa has left the team to mourn his mother’s passing in Brazil. His time away from the team is unknown, but Barbosa owners should bench him if necessary until his return is confirmed. Steve Nash and Matt Barnes have both served their suspensions following their fracas with Rafer Alston. Grant Hill made the most of his first Barnes-less game dropping 22, but little more should be made of the start than that they were short-handed.
Sacramento Kings
The crafty Spencer Hawes owner could capitalize on his overall numbers early on. His minutes have taken a hit since Brad Miller’s return, and while he is still useful in deeper leagues, his value is still artificially inflated as a result of Miller’s five game suspension to start the season. If you can get an owner to bite on his 13th overall Yahoo! ranking, then by all means take advantage. While Kevin Martin has missed playing time due to injury, Beno Udrih has picked up the slack, averaging 22 points per game in his absence. He has proven to be a strong play in games in which Martin does not play.
So there are this week’s ins and outs in the Western Conference. Use this knowledge to metaphorically rape your fellow fantasy owners in lopsided trades. I will.
