Erik Ong is a
freelance writer and blogger from the Philippines who just happens to be a
hardcore Fantasy Basketball fanatic. He instantly fell in love with the game in
2003 and started writing about fantasy basketball in 2007. He enjoys
in-depth player analysis, assessing various drafting strategies, and the spirit
of competition that the game inspires.
He is a regular contributor to Give
Me The Rock. Feel free to email him at pointsinthepaint.blog@gmail.com if you have any questions, requests for
draft or trade advice, or simply just to have an engrossing and intelligent
discussion about the NBA and fantasy basketball.
I
will be doing a series of posts of the Top 20 NBA players per position for
fantasy. Since the Center position is regarded as the “thinnest” position in
Fantasy Basketball, I decided to lead off with a look at the NBA’s big men and
their outlook for this upcoming fantasy season. Generally speaking, what fantasy managers are looking for from
their centers is the ability to anchor their team’s Rebounds and Blocks
categories while providing reasonable support in FG%.
He is the undisputed BEST center in the NBA today. He led the league last
season in both rebounds (13.8) and blocks (2.9). He scored 20.9 points per game
at a remarkable 57.2 FG% clip. Those are the kind of numbers most people look
for when shopping for a prototypical center. He’s young (23), athletic, and
carved out of granite (missed only three games in five years). He’s hungry for
a title and is ready to step-up and play a bigger role in the Magic’s offense. It
is not too hard to believe that he is capable of exploding and providing your
team with a few 20-point, 20-rebound performances this season. He’s a Top 5-10 head-to-head
format commodity, but because of his poor free throw shooting (59.4%) and
relatively high turnovers (3.0) you may want to downgrade him a few spots if you
are drafting for the rotisserie format.
The Suns’ offense is expected to return to its up-tempo style now that Shaquille
O’Neal has been traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers. That is good news for Amar’e
and his fantasy outlook for this season. There are a few concerns that surround
him coming into this season. First, his recovery from surgery to repair a
detached retina that he suffered last season is not progressing as quickly as
originally projected. He is expected to be ready for camp though. Second, there
is a good chance that Phoenix may trade him before this season’s deadline.
Adjusting to his new team may affect his stats – odds are it won’t have Steve
Nash to pass him the ball. The bright side for this Sun for this upcoming
fantasy season is that he will want to showcase his game (and his health) to
whoever will be interested in him. He will be a free agent after this season
and has dropped hints that this may be his last one in Phoenix. It is possible
that he can provide fantasy owners with a solid comeback year. If healthy,
expect him to flirt with a 20-10 average; solid shooting percentages; and about
a steal and a block per game.
Strengths/Upside: PTS; FG%; FT%; Return to Top 6 fantasy form
Weaknesses/Risk: Injury risk; Flight risk (could be traded)
Al Jefferson’s break-out season was cut short when he suffered a bad knee
injury that required surgery to repair. There’s no question about what he is
capable of doing when he’s healthy. The concern surrounding Al-Jeff at this
point is “WILL he be healthy?” and “CAN he stay healthy?” Regarding the first
question, reports indicate that he is ahead of schedule if not on track to make
a speedy recovery in time to start for Timberwolves. He is a definite high
Risk-Reward pick coming into this season. His upside (his returning to
pre-injury form) helps mitigate the risk involved in drafting him early. And by
early, we’re talking about second to early third round kind of “early”. The
T-Wolves management (David Kahn) has surrounded him with youth, talent, and a
new coaching staff. If his knee holds up, he should be able to average 24-11
easily. That should be accompanied by 50+ FG% and about 1.8 BPG.
Brook Lopez, New Jersey Nets 08-09: 82 Games;
13.0 PPG; 8.1 RPG; 1.1 APG; 0.0 3PPG; 53.1 FG%; 79.3 FT%; 0.5 SPG; 1.8 BPG; 1.8
TO
Many fantasy owners were both surprised and pleased by this rookie’s fantasy
performance last season. Brook Lopez was not left undrafted in most leagues when
the season began, but was quickly snatched up when he showed signs of both
fantasy viability and consistency. Nets
coach, Lawrence Frank, has asked Brook to study Pau Gasol’s game with the hopes
that the sophomore will be able to emulate the Lakers’ big man in terms of
offense. We will likely see some Devin Harris-Brook Lopez pick and rolls from
Frank’s playbook this season. He is a young player on a very young team, but
Brook is being groomed as one of the Nets’ key core players for the future.
What he lacks in terms of experience and fantasy track record compared to some
veteran big men, is offset by his upside and his coming off an uninjured 08-09
season. His real-life and fantasy game should progress in parallel to the
growth of his confidence and his comfort level as the “go-to guy” in the paint
for the Nets. I project him to average 16 PPG; 9.5 RPG; and 2.0 BPG this
season.
Strengths/Upside: BLK; REB; FG%; Youth; Health
Weaknesses/Risk: PTS; Inexperience
Mehmet Okur, Utah Jazz 08-09: 72 Games;
17.0 PPG; 7.7 RPG; 1.7 APG; 1.3 3PPG; 48.5 FG%; 81.7 FT%; 0.8 SPG; 0.7 BPG; 1.8
TO
Mehmet and his statistical array may not fit the mold of your
prototypical big man, but that doesn’t shoot down his fantasy value altogether.
Sure he nails three-pointers more than he actually blocks the ball, but it’s
his 81.7 FT% (rare for most centers) and his less than two turnovers per game
that make him a rotisserie boon from the five spot. Carlos Boozer is expected
to be moved sometime this season. If the Jazz do not get a scorer in the
exchange, expect Okur to be asked to step-up his offensive game. Aside from his
use in the rotisserie format, Okur has appeal for drafters who want to build a
“small-ball” team in head-to-head.
Strengths/Upside: FT%; 3PPG; TO; Bigger role when Boozer gets traded
Weaknesses/Risk: REB; BLK
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs 08-09: 75 Games;
19.3 PPG; 10.7 RPG; 3.5 APG; 0.0 3PPG; 50.4 FG%; 69.2 FT%; 0.5 SPG; 1.7 BPG;
2.2 TO
Yes he’s 33 years old now and his minutes have been sliding over the last three
years. No, he’s not going to excite you as you watch him play the game. Again.
Nevertheless, The Big Fundamental
still has some fantasy game left in his tank. The Spurs know that their window
of opportunity to grab one more NBA title is ebbing away. They are convinced
that this may be the season to “just go for it”. You can bet top dollar that TD
is going to be at the core of that Championship run. They can’t contend unless
they make the Playoffs; and to get there they will need Timmy to do those “fundamental”
things that he’s known to be so good at, during this regular season. He hasn’t
averaged 20-10 plus two blocks since 2006, but he will still be able to log
those types of games every now and then; just not as consistently as he did in
his prime. Similar to Howard, his FT% merits him a downgrade if drafting for
the rotisserie format. 09-10 Projection: 18 PPG; 10 RPG; 1.8 BPG; 3.5 APG
Strengths/Upside: REB; BLK; FG%; AST (for a C)
Weaknesses/Risk: FT%; DNPs due to being preserved for Playoffs
Nene’s “comeback” was one of the more surprising and inspiring stories last
season in fantasy. He found viability anew when he stepped in to fill the void
in the middle left by departed Marcus Camby. Nene’s had an injury-filled career
and even though he only missed five games last season; the last time he was
able to accomplish such a feat was way back in 2003-04. He should still be
considered an injury risk because of his track record. On the other hand, he
did lead all centers in the steals category. 1.2 SPG is gravy coming from your
team’s center. If he can even just repeat his averages last season, Nene should
be a solid pick at C for both rotisserie and head-to-head formats.
Strengths/Upside: SPG; FG%; TO
Weaknesses/Risk: PTS; REB; History of injuries
Andris Biedrins, Golden State Warriors 08-09: 62 Games;
11.9 PPG; 11.2 RPG; 2.0 APG; 0.0 3PPG; 57.8 FG%; 55.1 FT%; 1.0 SPG; 1.6 BPG;
1.8 TO
20 missed games last season is a cause for concern. The expected emergence of
Anthony Randolph as a force in the post is another. Andris should still be
considered the main man who is expected to grab those rebounds when Golden
State’s guards miss their outside shots; and yes the guards will be taking more
than their fair share of those. He will also be their deterrent in the paint.
At only 23 years of age, this Latvian big man is still young and should be able
to prove his real-life and fantasy value to his owners this season. Expect him
to average a low double-double, plus a good number of blocks. One SPG will just
be the cherry on top.
Strengths/Upside: BLK; REB; STL; TO; FG%
Weaknesses/Risk: PTS; Has potential to be injury prone
Marcus Camby, Los Angeles Clippers 08-09: 62 Games;
10.3 PPG; 11.1 RPG; 2.1 APG; 0.0 3PPG; 51.2 FG%; 72.5 FT%; 0.8 SPG; 2.1 BPG;
1.5 TO
His reputation for missing numerous games in a season almost always precedes
him. His expected time-share at the center position for the L.A. Clippers with
Chris Kaman is also cause for some concern as well. Then why is he even in the
Top 10? Well, when he does play,
Camby is capable of giving what you want from your fantasy center. A ton of
boards and a whole lot of blocks. He may not average a double-double this
season, as his points output may get hurt by his reduced minutes and the
abundance of capable scorers on his team. He was never really valued for his
scoring anyway. He should still be able to average two blocks and a steal per
game in spite of the reduced minutes. Again, it’s the number of games that we
expect him to play is what should concern fantasy owners.
Strengths/Upside: REB; BLK; TO
Weaknesses/Risk: PTS; Established as Injury-Prone player
Al Harrington, New York Knicks 08-09: 73 Games
(68 at NY); 20.7 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 1.4 APG; 2.4 3PPG; 44.6 FG%; 80.4 FT%; 1.2 SPG;
0.3 BPG; 2.3 TO
He’s still the likely starting C in Coach D’Antoni’s “shoot-first and let the
other team worry about defense” system. Like Mehmet, he will NOT provide your
fantasy team with stats that centers are more known to produce. Think of him as
a good rebounding shooting guard, who just happens to be eligible to play at
center. That being said, his appeal is more for the H2H market. His high
turnovers, turn-off most rotisserie drafters. It all now depends on what round
you get him at and your fantasy team’s needs at the time.
Strengths/Upside: 3PPG; STL; PTS; FT%
Weaknesses/Risk: REB; BLK; FG%; Stat line is more like a G than a C
He’s played in all 82 regular season games over the last two years. He was
traded to the Hornets over the off-season by the Charlotte Bobcats for Tyson
Chandler. I know, on some level I don’t get it either. Oh yeah, the Bobcats
wanted to shed his contract. Lucky Hornets! If you don’t want to gamble on
Marcus Camby, which is completely understandable, then Emeka should be a good
source of rebounds and blocks in his stead. The Hornets are a more established
and focused team. Okafor has the benefit of having the best PG in the game
(Chris Paul) dishing him the ball for those sweet alley-oops that once were
meant for Chandler. Emeka and David West should prove to be one of the more
solid front court tandems in the Western Conference. His free-throw-shooting
leaves a lot to be desired but at 4.5 attempts last season, it shouldn’t hurt
your fantasy team too much. 14-15
PPG; 10 RPG; and 1.8 BPG are reasonable projections for him this season.
Strengths/Upside: REB; BLK; FG%; New Team
Weaknesses/Risk: PTS; FT%
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks 08-09: 67 Games;
11.5 PPG; 9.3 RPG; 2.4 APG; 0.0 3PPG; 52.5 FG%; 72.7 FT%; 0.8 SPG; 1.4 BPG; 1.5
TO
The expected return to full health of Atlanta’s starting PF, Josh Smith, can’t
be good for Al’s prospective fantasy owners this season. Neither is it
comforting to know that he missed 15 games last year. He’s coming into his
third year in his NBA career. He’s now a more mature and focused young stud.
His lack of significant scoring is made up for by the fact that he averaged
only 1.5 turnovers a game, as far as rotisserie drafters are concerned. Expect
him to get major minutes, in spite of Atlanta’s moves to bolster its front
court depth.
Andrew Bynum, Los Angeles Lakers 08-09: 50 Games;
14.3 PPG; 8.0 RPG; 1.4 APG; 0.0 3PPG; 56 FG%; 70.7 FT%; 0.4 SPG; 1.8 BPG; 1.7
TO
He’s officially considered by many pundits as “injury prone”. You can’t blame
them. Andrew’s managed to play in only 52% of his total playable games over the
last two seasons. He’s only 22-years old. He still has time to finally blossom
into fruition the greatness that he has teased so many fantasy managers with in
the past. As a fantasy basketball commodity, Bynum is an interesting mix of talent,
upside, youth, and injury risk. If he is able to play in at least 78 games this
season, he should automatically be catapulted into Top 10 center status. So
far, the outlook regarding his recovery from knee surgery is very positive and
he’s expected to be ready to participate in training camp.
Strengths/Upside: FG%; BLK; REB; Young and Athletic; Good coach
Weaknesses/Risk: Injury prone, So far has been unreliable in fantasy
Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors 08-09: 78 Games;
15.4 PPG; 5.3 RPG; 1.2 APG; 1.5 3PPG; 45.0 FG%; 83.1 FT%; 0.4 SPG; 1.2 BPG; 1.7
TO
Similar to Harrington and Okur, He’s a square peg that we’re trying to fit into
a round hole. He’s technically a 7-foot tall power forward that’s been asked to
play at “five” for the Raptors so that Chris Bosh can do more damage as the
“four”. Square peg in the sense that he’s more like a three-point bombing Dirk
Nowitzki than he is, say a back board breaking Darryl Dawkins. Nonetheless,
he’s most likely Toronto’s starting C and should therefore be included in our
list. If you’re drafting small-ball in head-to-head, or are more interested in getting
three-point shooting swingman numbers from your center, then “Il Mago” (the
Wizard) should get a considerable bump up based your specific drafting goals.
Roto-heads will appreciate his 1.5 treys; 1.2 blocks; and 1.7 TOs, but will
find their teams searching for more reliable sources of rebounds, blocks, and
FG%.
Strengths/Upside: 3PPG; FT%; Has grown into his role with the Raptors
Weaknesses/Risk: REB; FG%; Non-prototypical center stat array
His move to Boston and his willingness to play more of a support role has
definitely given this 1-1-1 Club member (one each of blocks, steals, and treys)
some downgrade points. Expect less minutes from him. Definitely. The Celtics
didn’t acquire him just because he looks good wearing a green headband. He will
be leaned on every now and then to bring some defensive pressure from the bench
and also to help spread out the opposing D with his being a threat from beyond
the arc. He shouldn’t see less than 25 MPG, and that should be enough time for
him to log his 1-trey, 1-steal, 1-block per game. He’s not going to give
significant rebounding contributions to your fantasy team. So don’t expect much
in that department. He’s more of a rotisserie “stat filler” at this point in
his career, and at less than 1 TO a game he should be a reasonably good one.
Strengths/Upside: TO; Versatile line
Weaknesses/Risk: FG%; PTS; Reduced minutes; New support role
New head coach, Paul Westphal, is going to turn Sacramento into a run-and-gun
type of team. The Kings’ young bigs are not a hindrance to this plan. Their
lack of talent at the point will be the biggest hurdle. Hawes is growing both
offensively and defensively. He should see more than 30 minutes per game.
Spencer should be able to average 15 PPG; 8 RPG; 1.3 BPG; 0.7 SPG; at an
improved shooting percentage from the field at 47.7%. His line is versatile
enough to give drafters good fantasy value in the late rounds.
Strengths/Upside: BLK; REB; Youth; New Coach
Weaknesses/Risk: FT%; TO; Lack of passing PG
Don’t let last season’s stats fool you. This is going to be an entirely
different season. Well very different
at least. Yao Ming is gone for the season or at least long enough for drafters
to not bother with him in this season’s draft. Luis will be the likely starting
C for the Rockets. He should be a good source of points, boards, and FG% in the
late rounds. He will NOT help your team’s blocks category. That’s just not his
game. Think of him as poor man’s Boozer who is actually available much, much
later. He and Aaron Brooks will be doing most of the scoring for the Rockets, who
will be without the three NBA stars it once leaned on to do it. (Ming, T-Mac,
Artest).
Strengths/Upside: PTS; FG%; REB; Injured Yao
Weaknesses/Risk: BLK; Foul trouble
Sadly, an incomplete stress fracture in his back cut his season short in 2008.
He’s not yet 100%, but he’s making some progress. The Milwaukee Bucks are but a
shell of last season’s roster, Michael Redd and Andrew will be looked to
deliver comeback seasons. The need, however, will not necessarily be followed
by those desired results. Optimistically, Bogut should be a decent
double-double producer with some defensive numbers added on. His biggest
drawbacks, aside from his obvious health concerns, are his poor FT% and high
TOs. He’s a risky pick and should be drafted in the late rounds at best.
Strengths/Upside: REB; FG%; PTS; BLK
Weaknesses/Risk: FT%; TO; Not 100% recovered from back injury
Joakim’s my pet/favourite late round block and rebound booster. I’m allowed to
say that, right? Nevermind. Too late. He’s a ball of energy. His defensive
intensity is greatly appreciated by the Bulls; and thus should cement his
position in the starting line-up. He will still be sharing time with Brad
Miller, but he should be able to log enough minutes to give your fantasy team
its much needed boost in those categories. As long as you don’t expect him to
develop an offensive game overnight or anytime soon, he should make you happy
as a late round pick. He’ll be a solid third -string center for
almost any fantasy team.
Strengths/Upside: BLK; REB; FG%; Frenetic energy on D
Weaknesses/Risk: PTS; FT%
Marc’s got the starting C job locked down in Memphis. The Grizzlies added Zach
Randolph and Allen Iverson over this off-season. These moves don’t bode well
for hopes that Marc will be able to bring his offensive game closer to his
brother, Pau Gasol’s. A.I. should hurt the Grizzly guards' values more than his
and Z-Bo doesn’t do D. So Marc should still be good for some rebounds and
blocks. When he does get the chance to score, expect him to do it at a good
FG%. Rookie, Hasheem Thabeet, may threaten to take away some of his playing
time. So keep a watchful eye on his playing time as the season progresses. With
the ball rarely in his hands, his TOs should go down, especially now that he’s
no longer a rookie.
Strengths/Upside: REB; FG%; BLK
Weaknesses/Risk: PTS; TO; Chemistry with new team additions
To get more fantasy
insight, check out the 2009 Four
Fingers of Fantasy fantasy basketball guide, where industry experts
have come together to give you THE BEST fantasy basketball analysis.
Erik Ong is a
freelance writer and blogger from the Philippines who just happens to be a
hardcore Fantasy Basketball fanatic. He instantly fell in love with the game in
2003 and started writing about fantasy basketball in 2007. He enjoys
in-depth player analysis, assessing various drafting strategies, and the spirit
of competition that the game inspires.
