Lebron James, Cleveland

Hoopedia defines the small forward position as follows: “The small forward is typically a prolific scorer and a strong defender. Versatility is normally the trademark of a good small forward, who must be big enough to play close to the basket, but quick enough to play on the perimeter.” I like this definition. Let’s use it as our launching pad for this list.

LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
08-09: 81 Games; 28.4 PPG; 7.6 RPG; 7.3 APG; 1.6 3PPG; 48.9 FG%; 78.0 FT%; 1.7 SPG; 1.2 BPG; 3.0 TO

There is no question as to who is the best small forward in basketball today. LeBron James can even make a case as the overall number one pick in fantasy this season. The fact that he contributes across all standard categories, is enough to place his value head and shoulders above his closest competition. His three turnovers a game is but a pittance of a cost to reap the benefits of his prolific scoring and versatility. The only thing about James that should be of minor concern to his prospective fantasy owners is the Cleveland Cavaliers’ attempts to surround him with as much talent as possible; in order to help him acquire a highly coveted NBA Championship. The Cavs’ roster is as deep as it has ever been. LBJ might not be needed to do as much work to get those Ws. I wouldn’t be too worried about it though, “The King” can be counted on bring his A game night in and night out, too many blow-out games are the only real concern. Nevertheless, in whatever format you are playing, with whatever drafting strategy you may be using; LeBron James is “money in the bank” as far as fantasy hoops is concerned this season.

Strengths/Upside: FG%; PTS; STL; REB; BLK; 3PPG; Motivated
Weaknesses/Risk: TO; reduced minutes due to blow-out games

Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers
08-09: 67 Games; 25.8 PPG; 5.1 RPG; 2.7 APG; 2.7 3PPG; 44.7 FG%; 87.8 FT%; 1.0 SPG; 1.5 BPG; 2.5 TO

Many people were excited about Danny Granger and expected a lot from him coming into last season. The “Lone Granger” did not disappoint and exploded like Krakatau. He represents the versatility we look for in a good small forward. 1-steal and 1.5 blocks a night allows him to add defensive numbers for your fantasy team, complementing his offensive contributions of 25.8 PPG and 2.7 3PPG very nicely. He missed three weeks of regular season play due to a partial tendon tear in the sole in his foot. He also did not participate in this summer’s Olympic training camp due to nagging knee problems. I am also slightly concerned with the lack of talent surrounding him in the Indiana Pacers’ roster. I am a bit worried that it will mean too much pressure on him and Troy Murphy to carry the team on their collective backs and knees. When healthy, expect more of Danny’s top-notch stat line to be added to your team’s totals.  

Strengths/Upside: PTS; 3PPG; BLK; FT%
Weaknesses/Risk: Knee problems; Too much pressure due to lack of support

Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
08-09: 74 Games; 25.3 PPG; 6.5 RPG; 2.8 APG; 1.3 3PPG; 47.6 FG%; 86.3 FT%; 1.3 SPG; 0.7 BPG; 3.0 TO

Kevin Durant is probably the NBA player surrounded with the most hype this coming fantasy season. He is already being projected to contribute top-five fantasy value. It’s almost hard to believe that he entering into only his third NBA season. He diversified his stat line in his sophomore year from his scoring-only production in his rookie season. He improved across the board, except in blocks, but we’re happy to let 0.2 less blocks per game slide in exchange for more treys, points, rebounds and steals. Not known to many is that one of KD35’s bigger fantasy contributions is his 86.3 FT% at 7.1 attempts per game. That’s a solid boost in that percentage category, right there. It’s probably easiest to sum up his outlook for this season in three simple words. “Upside, upside, and upside.”

Strengths/Upside: PTS; FT%; REB; Youth; An even more diverse stat line this season.
Weaknesses/Risk: TO

Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia 76ers
08-09: 82 Games; 18.8 PPG; 5.7 RPG; 5.3 APG; 1.0 3PPG; 47.3 FG%; 72.4 FT%; 1.6 SPG; 0.4 BPG; 2.7 TO

The most critical news this off-season that affects Andre Iguodala is the Philadelphia 76ers’ loss of former starting point guard, Andre Miller.  He decided to sign a four-year deal with the Portland Trailblazers. Louis Williams is expected to take Miller’s spot as starting PG, but he is not really known for his passing expertise. Expect the Sixers’ offense to run through Iguodala and him to perform point-forward functions. Long story short; expect more points, assists, and turnovers from A.I.2. He should also still remain a good source of steals and hopefully he will continue to improve on his outside shooting. It should be interesting to see how he and Elton Brand attempt to jell this season. Consider it as a “take two” from last year’s failed chemistry experiment. Iguodala should be one of the more solid second-round picks this October.

Strengths/Upside: AST; STL; PTS; FG%
Weaknesses/Risk: FT%; TO; Chemistry with Elton Brand

Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
08-09: 81 Games; 20.5 PPG; 5.6 RPG; 3.6 APG; 1.5 3PPG; 45.7 FG%; 83.0 FT%; 1.0 SPG; 0.3 BPG; 2.8 TO

It’s hard to ignore the general decline in Paul Pierce’s stats ever since the Boston Celtics put together their “Big 3” (Pierce, Garnett, Allen). The Celtics are still very much in the hunt for a return to Championship glory. Pierce will have to step up and play a bigger role and bring the team’s offense together and retake some of the “fantasy thunder” that Ray Allen stole. Consider last season performance as a Championship MVP’s hangover for Pierce. The collection of high-powered talent surrounding Pierce has had its benefits as well. The distribution of responsibility and pressure has allowed him to miss just three games over the last two seasons, and that kind of resilience and stability is something you should look for in your early-round picks. He should be a reliable source of points, treys, assists and FT% for your team.

Strengths/Upside: PTS; 3PPG; AST; Games Played
Weaknesses/Risk: TO; Sharing the ball with teammates

Gerald Wallace, Charlotte Bobcats
08-09: 71 Games; 16.7 PPG; 7.8 RPG; 2.7 APG; 0.6 3PPG; 48 FG%; 80.4 FT%; 1.7 SPG; 0.9 BPG; 2.1 TO

Ever since Jason Richardson was traded to the Phoenix Suns last season, the Charlotte Bobcats became Gerald Wallace’s team. He is now the centerpiece of both the team’s offense and defense. He brings a well-rounded game. His fantasy forte is his defensive numbers. He’s a great source of steals, blocks, and rebounds from the small forward position. There’s no question, G-Wall’s got a mad game. The dark cloud that has hung over Crash’s head, as far as fantasy basketball is concerned, is his constant battles with the injury bug. He’s never played more than 72 games across his eight year NBA career. He’s also been notorious for having poor FT%. It is good to note, however, that he improved in that category over the last three seasons. He’s a clear risk-reward pick. Draft him and deal with the risk of him missing about 10 games, but IF he can stay healthy; your opponents had better watch out.

Strengths/Upside: FG%; STL; REB; BLK
Weaknesses/Risk: Injury-prone

Shawn Marion, Dallas Mavericks
08-09: Post-trade to Toronto stats – 27 Games (69 for the season); 14.3 PPG; 8.3 RPG; 2.3 APG; 0.1 3PPG; 48.8 FG%; 80.7 FT%; 1.2 SPG; 0.8 BPG; 1.8 TO

Many fantasy managers have been disenchanted by Shawn Marion’s fall from fantasy grace ever since he left the Phoenix Suns. He was a former solid first-round pick who has continually disappointed his owners with lackluster performances over the last two seasons. Assuming you are willing to calibrate your expectations of Marion, then you might find him to be a solid and versatile fantasy contributor this season. He has signed with the Dallas Mavericks and is now teamed up with Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd. Once he finds himself comfortable with his role in his new team, expect him to have the makings of a comeback season. He won’t likely return to his first-round draft value, but should be a good source of defensive stats, rebounds, good shooting percentages and low turnovers. If you can get him the fourth round of your draft then that would just be dandy, but he should still also provide good value in the tail-end of the third round as well.

Strengths/Upside: STL; FG%; REB; TO; New team
Weaknesses/Risk: PTS; 3PPG; Actual career decline

Caron Butler, Washington Wizards
08-09: 67 Games; 20.8 PPG; 6.2 RPG; 4.3 APG; 1.0 3PPG; 45.3 FG%; 85.8 FT%; 1.6 SPG; 0.3 BPG; 3.1 TO

I don’t like drafting Caron Butler early for fantasy basketball this season. Gilbert Arenas’ return to action will only mean an across-the-board decline in his statistics. If you think Gerald Wallace is an injury prone fantasy stud, then you should meet Caron Butler. He hasn’t even reached 70 games played over the last three seasons. Personally, I feel that his ranking has been bloated by the absence of Arenas over the last two seasons. Great stats or not, when a player averages almost 20 missed games a season, that smells like a deal breaker to me. I would weigh-in heavily on his habit of getting injured too often and for too long if I were you.

Strengths/Upside: REB; FT%; STL; AST
Weaknesses/Risk: TO; Injury prone; Return of Gilbert Arenas

Rudy Gay, Memphis Grizzlies
08-09: 79 Games; 18.9 PPG; 5.5 RPG; 1.7 APG; 1.1 3PPG; 45.3 FG%; 76.7 FT%; 1.2 SPG; 0.8 BPG; 2.6 TO

While it may seem on the surface that Allen Iverson’s addition to the Memphis Grizzlies roster will dampen its “youth movement”, I would still consider Rudy Gay to be a reasonably reliable fantasy force. He is young, talented, and athletic. Despite the team’s addition of one of the NBA’s most divisive journeymen in Iverson, Rudy should still be a major cog in the Grizzlies’ offense. He provides your fantasy team with a good amount of points and he is also a virtual member of the 1-trey; 1-steal; 1-block club. That makes for some good well-rounded contributions to your team. There was a lot of hype surrounding him coming into the 08-09 season, and the addition of scoring combo guard, O.J. Mayo, may have stolen a bit of his thunder. The presence of new teammates, Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson, may delay his rise. But as long as there are no more huge waves of hype and bloated anticipation, Rudy should end up as a good third to fourth round pick.

Strengths/Upside: PTS; Versatile; Young
Weaknesses/Risk: TO; Allen Iverson; Zach Randolph

Stephen Jackson, Golden State Warriors
08-09: 59 Games; 20.7 PPG; 5.1 RPG; 6.5 APG; 1.8 3PPG; 41.4 FG%; 82.6 FT%; 1.5 SPG; 0.5 BPG; 3.9 TO

I find it frustrating to see myself repeating the words “injury prone” over and over again. Alas, I wouldn’t be doing you justice if I didn’t lay it down like it is. Yes, like Butler and Wallace, Stephen Jackson is also injury prone. He is a very capable scorer, and isn’t shy on the defensive end either. He can distribute the ball to his teammates or launch bombs from downtown like there was no tomorrow. When he’s healthy, motivated, and behaved; Jackson is an amazing swingman to own for fantasy. Another thing to take into account when considering Captain Jack for your team is the fact that he has asked to be traded. He might not end the season as a Warrior. His high TOs and low FG% make him best suited for the head-to-head format and using a small-ball draft strategy.

Strengths/Upside: 3PPG; PTS; STL
Weaknesses/Risk: TO; FG%; Injury; Will likely be traded

Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets
08-09: 66 Games; 22.8 PPG; 6.8 RPG; 3.4 APG; 1.0 3PPG; 44.3 FG%; 79.3 FT%; 1.1 SPG; 0.4 BPG; 3.0 TO

Carmelo Anthony is great basketball player in real life. Unfortunately when it comes to fantasy, he lacks versatility and defense. He’s a great scorer and a solid rebounder at the “three” position. He shoots at a reasonable clip from the charity stripe. Considering scoring is his best category, it should be noted that he has been declining in points per game and minutes per game over the last three seasons. The better and healthier his supporting cast in Denver is, there will be lesser and lesser opportunities for Melo to improve and diversify his game.

Strengths/Upside: PTS; REB
Weaknesses/Risk: TO; Game lacks versatility

Hedo Turkoglu, Toronto Raptors
08-09: 77 Games; 16.8 PPG; 5.3 RPG; 4.9 APG; 1.7 3PPG; 41.3 FG%; 80.7 FT%; 0.8 SPG; 0.3 BPG; 2.7 TO

Hedo Turkoglu was once a major piece in the Orlando Magic offense, but has opted over the off-season to seek employment with the Toronto Raptors instead. He won’t be finding himself doing his former point-forward duties as much now that he is in a team with a pass-first point guard, in Jose Calderon. Yes, that means his assists won’t be as delicious as they once were. But don’t worry, the Raptors’ style of play will work well with Hedo’s skill set and he should still be able to drop more than his fair share of dimes. What we will see more of is his three pointers. The Raptors lost Anthony Parker to the Cleveland Cavaliers and will need Hedo’s bombardments from beyond the arc to help spread out the defense and keep the paint relatively open for Chris Bosh to do his dirty work. Hopefully, this new team will give Turkoglu a chance to improve on his accuracy from the field.

Strengths/Upside: FT%; APG; 3PPG
Weaknesses/Risk: TO; FG%

Wilson Chandler, New York Knicks
08-09: 82 Games; 14.4 PPG; 5.4 RPG; 2.1 APG; 1.3 3PPG; 43.2 FG%; 79.5 FT%; 0.9 SPG; 0.9 BPG; 1.7 TO

Wilson Chandler should see a considerable increase in his statistical production this season. The New York Knicks will want to give him ample opportunity to grow as he will be one of its remaining cornerstones as it goes through a drastic makeover during the 2010 free agency circus. Wilson will end up being both a solid scorer while maintaining his versatile stat line. He virtually averaged 1-steal, 1-trey, and 1-block last season. This season he should end up being more concrete and less virtual in those departments. He has relatively low turnovers which makes him a good rotisserie target. I like his upside and the confidence Coach Mike D’Antoni has in his maturing game. It’s all upside for this youngster right here.

Strengths/Upside: Versatile scorer; Youth;
Weaknesses/Risk:  FG%

Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia 76ers
08-09: 75 Games; 15.3 PPG; 5.0 RPG; 1.2 APG; 0.8 3PPG; 49.5 FG%; 73.5 FT%; 1.3 SPG; 0.3 BPG; 1.6 TO

Philadelphia has a new coach and a new system. I project Thaddeus Young, Andre Iguodala, and Elton Brand to lead the way in turning this franchise around. He shoots reasonable percentages from both the field and the line. His 1.3 SPG also gives his defensive value a good boost. He’s young (no pun intended) and is entering in only his third year in the league. Coach Jordan’s Princeton offense should provide Thad good opportunities to score both in the paint and from beyond 15 feet. His low turnovers make him a great middle round pick for roto drafters. We will have to see how he finally gets to mesh with Elton Brand. The entire team suffered statistically when Brand was first thrown into the Philly mix last season. We know he can play well alongside Iggy, there’s no question about that. There will be some measure of “wait and see” when it comes to the actual fruition of his upside.

Strengths/Upside: FG%; PTS; STL; Youth
Weaknesses/Risk: Sharing the ball with Elton Brand

Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets
08-09: 82 Games; 8.9 PPG; 4.3 RPG; 1.8 APG; 0.7 3PPG; 46.0 FG%; 71 FT%; 1.7 SPG; 0.3 BPG; 1.1 TO

Trevor Ariza basically traded teams and positions with Ron Artest this off-season. Ironically, it was not via a trade but through free agency signings. He was more of a perimeter defender with the Los Angeles Lakers, deferring to Kobe and Pau to do most of the scoring. The story is a little bit different now that he is with the Houston Rockets. They will be counting on him to play a bigger offensive role. The upside that Trevor brings to the table is the outlook that he will be able to continue his strong late-regular season and post-season performances with the Lakers. He showed that he just needed more minutes and opportunities to truly shine. The development of his outside shot was a nice diversification to his already solid defensive-minded game. Expect his stats to improve across the board.  He will be a good steals filler for your team in the middle rounds.

Strengths/Upside: STL; 3PPG; TO; FG%
Weaknesses/Risk: PTS; FT%

Francisco Garcia, Sacramento Kings
08-09: 65 Games; 12.7 PPG; 3.4 RPG; 2.3 APG; 1.4 3PPG; 44.4 FG%; 82.0 FT%; 1.2 SPG; 1.0 BPG; 1.7 TO

Francisco Garcia made the most of John Salmons being traded to the Chicago Bulls late last season, both on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. He should continue to improve as the Sacramento Kings. Whether he will start or come off the bench for the Kings, expect him to play a large amount of minutes. He won’t really end up as a huge points contributor, but he should be a good category filler for your fantasy team. He will be able to chip in treys, steals, and blocks while not hurting your team’s FT% and turnover categories. Whether you’re drafting for a rotisserie or a head-to-head team, Garcia is an all-around good value pick in the late-middle rounds.

Strengths/Upside: BLK; 3PPG; FT%; STL; TO
Weaknesses/Risk: PTS; Minutes competition from Andres Nocioni.

Richard Jefferson, San Antonio Spurs
08-09: 82 Games; 19.6 PPG; 4.6 RPG; 2.4 APG; 1.4 3PPG; 43.9 FG%; 80.5 FT%; 0.8 SPG; 0.2 BPG; 2.0 TO

Richard Jefferson has never really gotten much love from fantasy circles in the past. He should get a little bit more respect now that he is with the San Antonio Spurs. He will now have a chance to do more than “just score”. There won’t be pressure on his shoulders to carry the full weight of the scoring responsibilities now that he is in a team with Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, both of whom are fully capable of taking the bulk of that load. He represents a missing piece that Spurs have missed since Sean Elliot retired, and that is a solid scorer from the three position. Don’t expect him to keep up his 19.6 PPG from last season. 17-18 points a night are more realistic estimates. He should be a good booster for your fantasy team’s points, threes, and FT% categories.

Strengths/Upside: PTS; FT%; 3PPG
Weaknesses/Risk:  FG%; TO

Ron Artest, Los Angeles Lakers
08-09: 69 Games; 17.1 PPG; 5.2 RPG; 3.3 APG; 2.2 3PPG; 40.0 FG%; 74.8 FT%; 1.5 SPG; 0.4 BPG; 2.0 TO

Volatile, “Head Case”, and Tough S.O.B. are just some of the words that have been used to describe Ron Artest. Understand that he is a solid defender, first and foremost, in order to properly place into perspective the oddity that is his stat line. He should get line now that he is with the Los Angeles Lakers; well that’s what the Laker fans are hoping for. You can count him, at the very least, to listen to what Coach Phil Jackson has to say. It’s just a matter of respect that Artest has for the winningest coach in NBA history. He should also be marked off by drafters as an injury-prone player. He hasn’t been able to play more than 70 games in the last six years. He should be good for some points, steals, and treys. Just don’t expect him to shoot well from the field nor the free-throw line.

Strengths/Upside: STL; 3PPG
Weaknesses/Risk: TO; FG%; Head case

Josh Howard, Dallas Mavericks
08-09: 52 Games; 18.0 PPG; 5.1 RPG; 1.6 APG; 1.1 3PPG; 45.1 FG%; 78.2 FT%; 1.1 SPG; 0.6 BPG; 1.7 TO

Josh Howard seems to have eluded a fantasy break-out season year after year. Every time he appears to be doing well, he gets injured. He’s a great scorer, but he lacks the versatile game and staying power you would want from your small forward in the middle rounds. One good thing I do have to say about him is that aside from his solid scoring, he also has very low turnovers considering how many touches he gets. The Mavericks claim that keeping him healthy this season is a “priority”. Unfortunately, that’s an old tune that I’ve heard before. Assuming he can improve on his steals and three-pointers-made categories, AND he can stay healthy, Howard should be a good value-pick in the late-middle rounds of your fantasy draft.

Strengths/Upside: PTS; TO; FT%         
Weaknesses/Risk: Injury risk

Marvin Williams, Atlanta Hawks
08-09: 61 Games; 13.9 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 1.3 APG; 0.9 3PPG; 45.8 FG%; 80.6 FT%; 0.9 SPG; 0.6 BPG; 1.2 TO

Marvin Williams may not be the best scorer on the Atlanta Hawks roster, but he makes up for it with good showings in other categories such as rebounds, both shooting percentages, and low turnovers. He also quietly contributes to your team’s treys, steals and blocks categories. Marvin has struggled with injuries early in his career, but now that he is healthy he should show some improvement overall. The Hawks’ addition of scoring combo-guard, Jamal Crawford, may be a threat to Williams’ offensive development. We should, however, look to him to do the “other things” that his team needs; not as flashy or as exciting as his teammate Josh Smith does, but enough for you to appreciate him as a good pick in the later rounds.  

Strengths/Upside: FT%; TO; Versatile
Weaknesses/Risk: PTS; Addition of Jamal Crawford