When James Quintong asked me to do a "Year in Review" edition of this article several approaches went through my mind. I could highlight my best picks and dazzle you with my … well, you know what follows from that.
Or I could point out all my various failures over the past year – and there have been some doozies.
I decided to go the middle route. I will recap each section pointing out my best and worst of 2006 and provide an overall picture of how I did.
First I need to set the stage so to speak. For those new to this column, it is not just an injury recap. At the beginning of each year I project players that will be injured and I also project players that will be busts or sleepers. This is done in early to mid-August. The 2006 edition was done on August 15th and can be found here.
Snap
This section is merely a recap of the week's injuries and requires little more than researching the injury reports and reporting on the effect of these injuries in the coming week. I include quotes from the players and coaches as well as indications as to who will replace the injured player.
Very little analysis is done since I am not a trained medical professional and even if I were, I would not be the doctor or trainer examining the players. Looking back on 2006 it is clear that the most significant injuries of the year were to QB Donovan McNabb, RB Shaun Alexander and WR Randy Moss. Though to be fair, Moss wasn't all that impressive before or after the injury. WR Larry Fitzgerald also missed several games due to injury
All were top 10 picks at their position and all missed significant time due to injury. McNabb was placed on season-ending Injured Reserve (IR).
Speaking of IR – 369 players ended up on this list this year. That averages out to over 11 and a half players per team. Hardest hit were the Lions and Texans who each had 17 players make the list. The Cowboys and Jets only lost five players apiece.
My preseason projection warned against taking three players – QB Kurt Warner, RB Domanick Davis and WR Joe Horn.
Warner was benched more because of turnovers and the need to get Matt Leinart into the lineup than because of injuries, but staying away from him was wise.
Davis never recovered from his knee injury and may never play again.
Horn missed six games to injury and never seemed to play up to the levels most would have expected of him.
Crackle
When projecting weekly busts, I look at the season-to-date positional rankings and select only from the top 12 quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. Since most leagues start 24 running backs and wide receivers, this means for a selected player to meet my standards, they have to finish the week ranked 25th or lower.
This is an exacting standard but I have always figured anyone can tell you to sit the 19th ranked running back when he is facing the top ranked rush defense. Also, because players, especially running backs, can score fantasy points in a variety of ways (see LaDainian Tomlinson for specifics) just getting shut down in their primary method of point gathering is not enough.
For the year, my Crackle (bench) recommendations were a combined 26-22. While on the surface that might not seem to be an outstanding number, I am more than pleased with it. Remember, I am recommending the benching of a top 12 player and if they are a back or receiver, for me to score a point they have to finish outside the top 24.
Breaking down the numbers a bit further – I was 10-6 in quarterback recommendations, 7-9 for the running backs and 9-7 for wide receivers (the most difficult position to project).
Some of my best recommendations at quarterback included Eli Manning (week 10), Drew Brees (weeks one and 17) and Philip Rivers (week 12). Only Brees in week one finished the week above a ranking of 32 – he finished 19th that week.
My worst recommendations were you bench Michael Vick in week seven (3rd), Peyton Manning in week eight (3rd) and Jon Kitna in week 16 (3rd).
At running back I hit on Travis Henry in week 2 (97th), Ahman Green in week 10 (47th), Thomas Jones in week 13 (63rd) and Fred Taylor in week 16 (DNP).
I missed badly on Tomlinson in week 11 (1st) and Larry Johnson in week seven (2nd).
At wide receiver I was on the money when I suggested you sit Laveranues Coles in week 10 (46th) and week 17 (78th) and TJ Houshmandzedah in week 11 (73rd).
But telling you to sit Reggie Wayne in week eight (1st) and Houshmandzedah in week 14 (4th) likely cost you some important points.
My preseason predictions for busts included Eli Manning, Tiki Barber and Santana Moss.
Manning, who finished fourth in the 2005 quarterback rankings, dropped to 12th this year and would have been lower had McNabb and Tony Romo had complete seasons at the position.
Barber also finished fourth in the 2005 rankings for his position. He only dropped two slots this year but passed a couple of players in the final week, after most fantasy seasons are over.
He won't fool me again though – Barber has already stated that this is his final season.
Horn finished second in 2004 before suffering through an injury-riddled 2005 that was further exacerbated by the Hurricane Katrina fiasco. Most people thought he would rebound in 2006 and made him the 18th ranked receiver in 2006 drafts.
He finished the season ranked 50th.
Pop
My start recommendations are based on players outside the top 12 quarterbacks or the top 24 running backs and wide receivers. This, too, is an exacting standard but one I feel presents the reader with valuable insight.
My Pop (start) recommendations came in at 27-21. At quarterback I was correct in seven of 16 weeks. At running back I had a very impressive 14-2 mark. Wide receiver presented me with my biggest problem area and one I intend to hit in the off-season. I finished 6-10 at wideout.
My top recommendations at quarterback were in week one (Alex Smith – ninth), week nine (Romo – sixth) and week 14 (Vince Young – fourth).
My worst quarterback prognostications came in week seven (Byron Leftwich – 28th), week 10 (Smith – 29th) and week 15 (Steve McNair – 40th), though in fairness, McNair was injured in that game and Kyle Boller did finish 10th despite missing the first quarter.
At running back I was on the money in week 12 (Maurice Jones-Drew – seventh), week 13 (DeAngelo Williams – third) and week 16 (Ron Dayne – fourth).
My only two misses were recommending you start Anthony Thomas in week 10 (32nd) and Cedric Houston in week 14 (42nd).
None of my wide receiver recommendations were noteworthy – the ones I did succeed on finished in the 13-24 range. I missed badly on Joey Galloway in week three (48th), Kevin Curtis in week 10 (64th) and David Kircus in week 13 (Jay Cutler's first start – 106th).
My preseason sleeper selections included Jon Kitna, Frank Gore and Hank Baskett.
Kitna finished sixth in the quarterback rankings and despite his numerous turnovers provided steady, if unspectacular, fantasy production most of the season. He was outstanding in weeks 16 and 17.
Gore finished fifth in the running back rankings and topped 20 points on 10 occasions including weeks 14-17 – a range that includes most fantasy playoffs.
Only Baskett failed to live up to my preseason expectations. After Philadelphia acquired Donte' Stallworth Baskett became an afterthought and was limited to five starts, only one of which displayed his preseason promise. Not to worry though – Baskett did not start week 17 but he did finish with 177 yards on seven catches and scored a TD. Maybe I was just a year early in my prediction.
