Will a change of scenery help Green regain his old form?

To really begin to get a look at Trent Green’s possible fantasy in 2007 you have to separate the conjecture surrounding the two-time Pro Bowl quarterback from the facts.  

Forums and articles across the internet have been flooded during the off-season with talk of his being injury-prone, too old or that he has had superb talent in all of his NFL stops. But Let’s look at the facts:

• He’s slightly younger (37) than Brett Favre (37.7)
• Although he has played in only eight more career games than Donovan McNabb, he has thrown for almost 5,000 more yards and has a better career QB rating. Perhaps most importantly, he’s had fewer season-ending injuries than the Eagles’ star.
• Green started 80 straight games at one point for the Chiefs, a franchise record.

So why then are there so many fans confused about Green’s career?

The argument about Green having superior skill position talent around him during his other stops in the NFL is true. He played with Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzales. But if you look closer at the numbers, during Green’s 4,591 yd, 27 td season in ’04, Priest Holmes missed eight games. His replacement, Larry Johnson, only caught 22 passes that season.  Green’s best wide receiver that year was Eddie Kennison. In his three 4,000+ yard seasons with the Chiefs, he only had one 1,000 yard receiver.

So while he hasn’t been shouldering the load, he hasn’t been swimming in talent either.

Perhaps the misconceptions surrounding his health are due to the results of his two season-ending injuries: he lost his job both times, once to Kurt Warner in St. Louis, and again this off-season. 

What really must be examined when looking at Green’s potential this year is his new team, the Dolphins.

He has a young and relatively unproven WR corps. The top three receivers this season will most likely be Derek Hagan, Chris Chambers, and rookie Ted Ginn Jr.  There are only 85 NFL starts amongst all three players, and Chris Chamber’s 2005 Pro Bowl year seems to be aberration more than a true gauge of his ability. Trent Green, however, made a career in Kansas City of working with sub-par receivers. 

The areas that are going to hurt Green’s fantasy value the most this season are the lack of a pass-catching tight end on the roster and the quality of the offensive line.

In three of Green’s seasons in Kansas City Tony Gonzales was his leading receiver. In one of those seasons Gonzlez broke the single season reception record for  tight ends with 102 receptions. Currently, neither Justin Peele nor David Martin, the two tight ends vying for the starting job, have that many receptions in their respective careers. The new Dolphins quarterback will not be the only new arrival in Miami feeling the pains of not having a large target in the middle, as Cam Cameron was blessed with Antonio Gates during his stint as the Chargers offensive coordinator.

The most serious threat to Green’s value is the Miami’s offensive line. He has played with great lineman such as Orlando Pace, Will Shields, and Willie Roaf. Now Green’s best lineman is his left tackle Vernon Carey, who was actually brought from the right side where he played last season. Between all five of Miami’s first team lineman there have been only 54 NFL starts. This group, which includes two new full time starters, gave up 41 sacks last season, which is nine more than the Chiefs did in 2005 (the last time Green played a full season).  Poor offensive line play will translate into more forced throws and interceptions. The number of sacks also increases Green’s possibility of injury. 

Green has upside, however, even in Miami. He has averaged 19 TDs a season as a starter. The last time Miami had a quarterback throw at least 19 touchdowns was Jay Fiedler in 2001.  In his eight years as a starter his QB rating has dropped below 90 only three times, and in a full 16 game season he has never put up less than 3500 yds. Those numbers put him on a par with Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers’ production during the 2006 football season.

Come Draft day, Green will not be a top ten QB pick, but he is a veteran player with great upside. He is likely to be sitting in the pool until the late rounds, and he has some value as a sleeper candidate. At the very least he will be serviceable QB2, and in deep leagues may prove to be a starter early in the season.