
He finally won a Super Bowl in 2006, but was Manning the #1 Quality QB?
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The Head-to-Head (H2H) format in Fantasy Football leads to
the need for consistency. If you have
been playing fantasy sports for any length of time, you know how frustrating it
can be to win by 30 points one week and then lose by two points the next. How many times have you been one of the
highest scoring teams in the league, but you miss the playoffs by one or two
games?
Many will call it “bad luck” and that’s partially true. Injuries to key players, bad weather, etc. are situations that affect our fantasy teams, but are uncontrollable. However, there is one aspect of fantasy football that you can control. The
consistency of your team! If you’re
scratching your head and asking, “How can you control consistency”, you’re not alone. The topic and its application are new to fantasy football.
Reasoning
and Methodology
It’s called the Quality Game Scores. Basically, it is the awarding of a Quality
Game to a player each week when they exceed the average points scored in your
league for that position. The more
Quality Games a player is awarded each year, the more consistent that player is
and the more beneficial they are to your fantasy team.
It is very similar to the Quality Starts concept used for
pitchers in fantasy baseball. A pitcher
earns a Quality Start every time they pitch more than 6 innings and give up
less than three earned runs in a game.
The more Quality Starts a pitcher has in a year, the more consistent and
more valuable they are to their team.
However, Quality Starts do not affect a fantasy baseball team as much,
since its roto-style with accumulative stats.
However, in a H2H fantasy baseball format, it can be very important.
So, during the 2002 season, I started to research the
concept of consistency in fantasy football.
I knew that just taking the average points (total points/number of
games) for each player wasn't really valid.
Because if two players each rushed for 1,280 yards, they both averaged
80 yards per game. There appears to be
no difference between the 2 players for valuation purposes. BUT, if Player A rushes for exactly 80 yards
every week and Player B rushes for 120 yards one week and 40 yards the next
week, Player A will probably win you more Fantasy games in the long run. Therefore, I knew that I had to use a
game-by-game basis for my valuations.
Next step was to set the Quality Game (QG) Factor. This was the average points that a player
needed to meet or exceed to be awarded a Quality Game for that week. Each QG Factor was calculated for each
specific position (QB, RB, WR, TE), using a standard amount of players each
season for consistency. They were as
follows: Top 40 QBs, Top 75 RBs, Top
100 WRs and Top 40 TEs. I calculated
the weekly points scored for each individual week by each player. I used the WCOFF scoring system (1pt/20yds –
pass, 1pt/10yds – rush/rec, 1pt/reception, 4 pts – pass td and 6 pts – rush/rec
td) for my initial calculations, but you can use your own scoring system. By comparing the player's weekly score
against the calculated QG Factor; I could determine how consistent that player
was for the year. In the next section,
let’s take a look at which players were the most consistent for 2006.