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Quality Games: Deciding Who to Start Just Got Easier!
Quality Games: Deciding Who to Start Just Got Easier!
By Bob Lung | Published  08/5/2007 | Quality Games
Bob Lung
A veteran fantasy football writer, Bob Lung brings his concept of "Quality Games"-- a measure of player consistency and performance-- to Sports Grumblings, the home of the BDDM and FFRS.  

View all articles by Bob Lung
Quality Games: Deciding Who to Start Just Got Easier!
 Larry Johnson - Fantasy Football
Larry Johnson went 16-16 in Quality Games in 2006.

Stud players are stud players.  Larry Johnson had 16 out of 16 Quality Games (QGs) in 2006.  No surprise!  However, for the less than perfect players in the middle and upper tiers, it would be nice to know when they might earn a Quality Game or not.  It is now possible to do with a very high confidence level.

This very unique trend came as an offshoot from the Quality Game Scores.  The trend that I was seeing was that approximately 70% - 75% of the Quality Games were earned when a player was either playing at home OR away versus a bad defense.  A bad defense is classified as any defense ranked in the bottom 10 of the NFL.  This game is called a QUALITY MATCHUP.

Now, as with any system, it is not perfect.  Certainly top players like Tomlinson, Peyton Manning, Chad Johnson, etc. will earn a QG against any team, practically anytime.  However, those players, who are less than perfect, will primarily earn a QG under those Quality Matchup scenarios.

When I noted this in 2002, it was late in the season, so I realized I needed more data, so I tracked it in 2003 and similar results were found. 

So, since 2004 I tried something with this new information, I utilized it when I responded to bulletin board posts or emails from readers about “Who Do I Start”.  For example, they would ask, “Which three of these five receivers should I start this week?”  I would look at the schedule and list which ones had Quality Game Matchups and which ones did not and ranked them and sent it back and guess what?  70% - 80% of the time, I was right!  I helped numerous readers win their league championships by picking the right players in the right weeks and it literally took less than a few minutes each week to help them pick the best players to play. 

Now, don’t get me wrong…this does NOT mean you start Frizman Jackson over Torry Holt just because Jackson is home and Holt is on the road versus the Bears!  Studs are Studs and you never bench your Studs!!!   However, most of the painful decisions that fantasy owners have to make each week are those #2 running backs and those dreaded 2nd and 3rd receivers!  Starting the wrong guy each week ranks as one of the most gut-wrenching pains that any fantasy owner can endure!






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