With Vick having gone to the dogs, will the Falcons still have the NFL's top-ranked rushing offense?

2007 Game Plan

Offense

This team has a new offensive-minded head coach, but they now lose the player that their offense was built around.  The Falcons have been a very successful rushing team, first in the league in 2006 with 183 yards per game.  In fact, the Falcons offense has lead the league in rushing yards per game since 2004.  While the line was good and Warrick Dunn is a good running back, Michael Vick was the main reason for these stats.  Teams couldn’t commit to stopping the conventional runs because they had to play contain on Vick.  So what can we expect to see in 2007?

Joey Harrington is under center now-- and without great weapons around him he won’t be faring any better here than he did in Detroit and Miami.  He has never had more than a 57.5% completion percentage, has only had more touchdowns than interceptions once, and no one is going to confuse him for Vick when has to move around in the pocket.  Dunn and Jerious Norwood will be sharing the load in the backfield this year.  With Harrington under center expect teams to be keying on the Atlanta rushing game.  The Falcons don’t have much at the WR slot;  Michael Jenkins and Joe Horn just shouldn’t excite anyone at this point.  The only question is whether Harrington can keep Alge Crumpler a viable TE option or not.  There are a lot of questions around Crumpler, from his own injuries to the way the new offense will work.  His numbers should decline, but he should be a top 12 TE still.

Defense

The defense was very average in 2006.  They gave up just over 20 points per game, caused 26 turnovers, and recorded 37 sacks.  Besides drafting DL Jamaal Anderson in the first round of the Draft, they did not really bring in any other impact players. 

The Falcons do have a chance to be better defensively if they stay healthy, especially on the line.  John Abraham, Grady Jackson and Rod Coleman can make up a formidable front.  Add Anderson to that mix and you have a very nice group.  The second key will be the play of the secondary.  DeAngelo Hall talks like he is Champ Bailey, but so far Hall is no Bailey-- if he wants to be a shutdown corner he needs to stop getting beat deep.  The addition of second round pick Chris Houston should help the secondary as it will allow Jimmy Williams to move to free safety.  Mix in veteran Lawyer Milloy and you have another exciting group.  The Front Four and Back Four  need to be playmakers, because the linebackers just aren’t that good. 

Player Spotlight

Jerious Norwood, RB
While there is no doubt that Norwood is in an RBBC with Dunn there is also no doubt that Norwood has the biggest upside.  Norwood’s big play ability should excite his owners, as he possesses blazing speed.  As long as Dunn is healthy it will be hard for Norwood to live up to his potential, but Dunn is coming back from off-season back surgery and is thus an injury-risk.

Alge Crumpler, TE
Probably the one player with the biggest question mark.  He has been a consistent fantasy performer over the last five years, but a new offense, new quarterback, and a knee injury raise serious concerns.  Bobby Petrino is an offensive minded guy who likes to throw the ball and with an immobile QB there should be a lot more actual passes thrown this year.  He looked healthy in his pre-season debut and he certainly is talented.  Crumpler is the only real fantasy option on the Falcons outside of the RBs.

John Abraham, DE
He was brought into Atlanta with great expectations. He came back from an injury-plagued 2005 to have a very solid 2006, posting nine sacks and 37 tackles.  With newly drafted Jamaal Anderson opposite him teams won’t be able to key on Abraham; and when he has been able to work one-one-one, Abraham has been nearly unstoppable.

DeAngelo Hall, CB
If we were predicting seasons based on how players see themselves, Hall would be in store for an All-Pro year.  As it is his game hasn’t caught up with his mouth yet.  He has talent and with a front four that will put pressure on the QB, Hall could finally make good on his potential.  He is only 23 and is yet to have more than six INTs; this is the year he will take a big step forward.

Franchise Player
None

Transition Player
None

Players Re-Signed
OLB Demorrio Williams
TE Dwayne Blakley

Players Acquired
QB Joey Harrington (from Dolphins)
QB Chris Redman (from Titans)
QB Casey Bramlet (from Redskins)
RB Arlen Harris (from Lions)
FB Ovie Mughelli (from Ravens)
WR Joe Horn (from Saints)
DT Anthony Bryant (from Lions)
LB Marcus Wilkins (from Bengals)
CB Lewis Sanders (from Texans)
K Billy Cundiff (from Saints)

Players  Lost
QB Michael Vick (suspension)
QB Matt Schaub (to Texans)
QB D.J. Shockley (out for season/injured)
FB Justin Griffith (to Raiders)
WR Ashley Lelie (to 49ers)
WR Brian Finneran (injured/out for season)
TE Eric Beverly (retired)
G Matt Lehr (to Buccaneers)
DE Patrick Kerney (to Seahawks)
LB Edgerton Hartwell (to Bengals)
LB Ike Reese (released)
CB Jason Webster (to Bills)
CB Kevin Mathis (released)
S Lance Schulters (not tendered)
K Morten Andersen (not tendered)