 |
Is it Packers QB Brett Favre's destiny to win another championship?
|
The playoffs are set and fantasy owners that participate in
any of the handful of playoff formats need only prognosticate which two teams
will play on Super Sunday to find success.
Easier said than done.
Odds are the team that comes through the AFC playoffs will
win the Super Bowl and will surely be the favorite absent a Dallas versus
Tennessee matchup.
The American Conference field is far more talented than the
Nationals. There is a nice mix of explosiveness and physicality on the Junior
Circuit. The high-octane teams (Colts and Patriots) and blue-collar units
(Jaguars, Chargers, Titans, Steelers). The defending champion Colts, perceived
as a scoring machine, just happened to lead the league in defensive scoring.
This balance would usually make Indianapolis the favorite to win the AFC
pennant, but there is this other good team, the Patriots, who finish 16-0 and
are the current odds-on favorite to win the AFC and go to the Super Bowl.
So -- if in fact New England is a lock to win the AFC
playoffs -- and Vegas says they are -- then whom will the Patriots face in
Super Bowl XLII?
The NFC is as wide open as it's been in years.
The Bears of 2007 followed most of the previous Super Bowl
losers and failed to make the postseason schedule this January. Chicago
dominated the NFC last year in both the regular and post-season.
The National Conference is led by the No. 1 seeded Dallas
Cowboys followed closely by the Brett Favre led Green Bay Packers, but
neither team is considered a lock to play on the final Sunday this season.
Seattle, Tampa Bay? Maybe Washington who has won four
straight? One could make a case that
the New York Giants are the most likely candidate to face off against the
Patriots on the final Sunday because they can't lose on the road. Head coach
Tom Coughlin, however, has injury issues in his already shaky secondary and
will have to be very creative to escape Florida on Sunday afternoon with a win.
There have been dynasties; the critically acclaimed;
one-shot wonders; teams which were undefeated; and nearly every year the
unexpected -- in every storyline on Super Sunday. The No. 1 seeds in each
conference have not advanced to the Super Bowl together since 1992.
Fantasy owners looking to succeed in their Playoff
Challenge need only know which two teams will be sitting in the locker
rooms at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Arizona on Sunday, Feb. 3,
listening to Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers performing the halftime
extravaganza.
What's that you say?
You have no idea who these two teams will be?
Then let me help.
AFC Fantasy Playoff Preview
1. New England Patriots
Why the Patriots will play in the Super Bowl:
Tom Brady to Randy Moss -- the
combination has been unstoppable. Does one need any more reason to
believe?
Why the Patriots won't play in the Super Bowl:
New England gave up 4.4 yards per rush attempt, which is
the highest of the 12-playoff teams. The Patriots lean too heavily on their
passing attack and these two statistical measures don't equate to January success.
Who to roster:
1) Tom Brady - The coaching staff will not abandon
the passing game, even in windy and cold conditions
2) Randy Moss - No AFC defense has a corner that can
cover the enigma
3) Wes Welker - Arguably the team MVP
4) Ben Watson - Watson no longer garners bracket coverage, not with Wess Welker and Randy Moss on the outside.
Who not to roster:
1) Laurence Maroney - The Patriots defense is old and
lacks speed. If New England is to find themselves 19-0 at season's end, it will
not come via the ground game
2) Donte Stallworth - Is an afterthought in the
offense
3) Patriots defense - The stop-unit is old and slow
and will be to blame if the team falls short of perfection
Injuries of note:
Patriots have no injuries of note and a first-round bye.
2. Indianapolis Colts
Why the Colts will play in the Super Bowl:
Indianapolis is the one team that can go to Gillette Field and
match the Patriots point-for-point. Maybe more important, the Colts led the
league in scoring defense, giving up 16.4 points per contest.
Why the Colts won't play in the Super Bowl:
Wide receiver Marvin Harrison doesn't return to form
after missing 11 of the teams final 12 games.
Who to roster:
1) Peyton Manning - The best of the Manning clan is
looking for back-to-back world championships
2) Joseph Addai - Has the potential to be the top
fantasy producer if the team claims the AFC Championship
3) Reggie Wayne - The best receiver in the league not
named Randy Moss
4) Marvin Harrison - His knee injury is a concern
5) Dallas Clark - Outside of Antonio Gates and
Ben Watson the top playoff tight end
6) Colts defense - Even without Dwight Freeney,
the Bob Sanders led defense is opportunistic
Who not to roster:
1) Anthony Gonzalez - The return of Marvin Harrison
and the rookie’s foot injury is a concern
Injuries of note:
Colts have a first-round bye but injuries of note:
WR Anthony Gonzalez (foot), WR Marvin Harrison (knee), CB
Tim Jennings (concussion), DE Robert Mathis (knee), DT Quinn Pitcock (groin),
CB Keiwan Ratliff (hamstring), TE Ben Utecht (shoulder)
3. San Diego Chargers
Why the Chargers will play in the Super Bowl:
They have a six-game winning streak, they've already knocked
off the Titans this season and they're home. Oh, yeah, and because they have LaDainian
Tomlinson, who shredded Tennessee for 146 yards the last time they met and
averaged 112 yards per game in the Chargers' six-game sprint to the finish. QB Phillip
Rivers has a sizzling postseason and WR Chris Chambers averages a TD
per game in the teams three January contests.
Why the Chargers won't play in the Super Bowl:
San Diego has a dismal playoff history in recent years,
blowing a lead against New England last year and losing to the New York Jets in
2005. The teams outside passing game won't scare anyone and the offense is not
built to keep pace with the Colts or the Patriots.
Who to roster:
1) LaDainian Tomlinson - The gas of the Dodge
Charger(s)
2) Phillip Rivers - The Chargers closed out the
season with six straight wins thanks in large part to quarterback Rivers. He
averaged 183.3 yards per game over that period and had a combined 10 touchdown
passes
3) Antonio Gates - If opposing defenses choose to
load the box against Tomlinson, Gates is the benefactor
4) Chris Chambers - In man-to-man coverage the
ex-Dolphin is opposing in the redzone
Who not to roster:
1) Vincent Jackson - The arrival of Chambers negated
his role in the offense and any fantasy value he once had
Injuries of note:
Practice Report
DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
Wednesday FB Lorenzo Neal (fibula)
LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Wednesday LB Marques Harris (hand), K Nick Kaeding (left
fibula)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Why the Jaguars will play in the Super Bowl:
The Jaguars have scored 24 or more points in 10 straight
games for the first time in team history. The entire team is a big, strong
physical team that can overwhelm their opponent. Jags running back Fred Taylor has already got the better
of the daunting Steelers defense once this season. Taylor ran for 147 yards and
a touchdown in Jacksonville’s 29-22 win over Pittsburgh on Dec. 16. That was
part of a five-game streak of 100-yard games for Taylor. Overall this season,
the ten-year veteran ran for 1,260 yards and five TDs, and if he continues this
role Jacksonville will be tough to defend.
Why the Jaguars won't play in the Super Bowl:
Jacksonville’s pass defense is giving up 213.8 yards per
game to rank 15th in the league. It has allowed seven different opposing
quarterbacks to throw for more than 250 yards, including a 445-yard performance
by Drew Brees in a Nov. 4 loss to New Orleans. The defense doesn't offer
enough pressure from their front seven to win four straight playoff games.
Who to roster:
1) Fred Taylor - The Jags' offense is hot and Taylor
is the primary reason why
2) David Garrard - Continues to mature and gain confidence
3) Reggie Williams - One of every four passes he's
caught this season has been for a touchdown
Who not to roster:
1) Maurice Jones-Drew - Too risky a proposition to
use as a starting option throughout the fantasy playoffs
Injuries of note:
Practice Report
OUT (DEFINITELY WILL NOT PLAY)
Wednesday LB Mike Peterson (hand)
Thursday LB Mike Peterson (hand)
DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
Wednesday RB LaBrandon Toefield (ankle)
Thursday RB LaBrandon Toefield (ankle)
LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Wednesday DT Grady Jackson (knee), S Reggie Nelson (thigh)
FULL PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Wednesday CB Aaron Glenn (ankle)
Thursday CB Aaron Glenn (ankle), DT Grady Jackson (knee), S
Reggie Nelson (thigh)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
Why the Steelers will play in the Super Bowl:
Ben Roethlisberger has picked apart opposition
defenses at will in certain games this season. If he produces his best this
week, he will cause serious problems for a mediocre Jags’ pass defense. Big Ben
had the second-best QB rating in the NFL behind Tom Brady (104.1) and
was third in passing TDs (32). In his previous outing against Jacksonville this
season, the fourth-year pro threw for 146 yards and three touchdowns in a Dec.
16 loss.
Why the Steelers won't play in the Super Bowl:
Injuries.
A month ago, Pittsburgh was being talked about as a second
seed. Then they limped into the playoffs and haven't been the same team the
past month. Losing running back Willie Parker; the question marks
surrounding All Pro safety Troy Polamalu's knee; the suspect offensive
line with injuries to Max Starks and Marvel Smith; and the loss
of defensive end Aaron Smith have devastated a team that was once
considered a contender.
Who to roster:
1) Ben Roethlisberger - Without a home run hitter at
tailback, and facing a stellar run defense, Ben and the Steelers will have to
air it out
2) Hines Ward - In line for double-digit receptions
3) Santonio Holmes – The new No. 1 wide out in
Pittsburgh
Who not to roster:
1) Najeh Davenport - The Steelers are likely
one-and-done in the playoffs
2) Heath Miller - Without Parker, the offense is
using their tight end as a sixth lineman grinding out yards rather than
spreading the field
Injuries of note:
Practice Report
DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
Wednesday CB Bryant McFadden (ankle), S Troy Polamalu
(knee), WR Willie Reid (shoulder), CB Allen Rossum (hamstring), T Marvel Smith
(back), CB Deshea Townsend (foot), WR Hines Ward (knee)
Thursday S Troy Polamalu (knee), CB Allen Rossum
(hamstring), T Marvel Smith (back)
LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Thursday WR Willie Reid (shoulder)
FULL PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Thursday CB Bryant McFadden (ankle), CB Deshea Townsend
(foot), WR Hines Ward (knee)
6. Tennessee Titans
Why the Titans will play in the Super Bowl:
They won't. This young team even with a healthy Vince
Young just doesn't have the talent to win three-straight road playoff
games.
Who to roster:
1) LenDale White - The Titans' starting running back
caused San Diego’s defense problems. The Chargers won 23-17, but White ran for
113 yards and a touchdown. In fantasy playoff formats that allow for roster
moves, White is a wild card option.
Who not to roster:
Absent White, none of the Titans player personnel will help
win you a fantasy playoff championship.
Injuries of note:
Practice Report
DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
Wednesday RB Chris Brown (back), DT Albert Haynesworth
(hamstring), C Kevin Mawae (calf), DE Antwan Odom (team decision), G Benji
Olson (back), RB LenDale White (knee)
Thursday C Kevin Mawae (calf), G Benji Olson (back), RB
LenDale White (knee), WR Roydell Williams (ankle)
LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Wednesday WR Roydell Williams (ankle), QB Vince Young
(quadricep)
Thursday QB Vince Young (quadricep)
FULL PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Thursday RB Chris Brown (back), DT Albert Haynesworth
(hamstring)
NFC Fantasy Playoff Preview
1. Green Bay Packers
Why the Packers will play in the Super Bowl:
It's Brett Favre's destiny. The team has found the
running back they lacked early in the season in Ryan Grant. The offense
had little consistency until Grant was given the starting role and gaining 100
yards in half the 10 games he started -- including a season-best 156 against
Oakland. The rookie averaged 5.1 yards a carry and looked explosive in the
season finale against Detroit. The
staunch Packer defense features Al Harris and Charles Woodson,
the best cornerback tandem in the league.
Why the Packers won't play in the Super Bowl:
The offensive line play will be to blame if the Packers don't
find themselves playing in February. The loss of guard Junius Coston --
out with a right calf strain -- is huge. It means an offensive line that had
been stellar all season will depend on backup Daryn Colledge, who has
yet to play an entire game this season.
Right guard Jason Spitz is hurt, too, and isn't expected to be at full
strength for the teams’ playoff opener.
Who to roster:
1) Brett Favre - A career year after most experts
buried the future Hall of Famer. Regardless of who the Packers face in the
second round of the Super tournament, he is the horse that leads the Green Bay
buggy
2) Ryan Grant – Is the odds-on favorite to return in
2008 as the starting running back and his second half stat-line is as good as
any tailback in the league. Playing a January game in Green Bay offers the
rookie 20-plus touches
3) Greg Jennings - Yards after catch is his strength
and he’s a threat to take it to the house on any give reception
4) Donald Driver - A disappointing season for the All
Pro could be trumped by a top-tiered playoff run
5) Donald Lee -
A draft day steal and the top target for Favre in the redzone
Who not to roster:
1) James Jones – The rookie was good, but lost
significant targets as the season progressed.
Injuries of note:
Packers have a first-round bye but injuries of note are:
QB Aaron Rodgers (hamstring), CB Charles Woodson (toe), WR
Greg Jennings (ankle), DT Ryan Pickett (groin), CB Jarrett Bush (calf), T Chad
Clifton (shoulder), G Junius Coston (ankle), TE Bubba Franks (knee), CB Al
Harris (heel), WR Koren Robinson (knee), T Mark Tauscher (ankle)
2. Dallas Cowboys
I've called this team a fraud, overrated and fortunate at
best this season. Without a healthy Terrell Owens (ankle) I have a very
good chance to be right as the postseason unfolds.
Tony Romo has faded down the stretch the
last two seasons. The league's most eligible bachelor has passer ratings of
22.2 and 34.9 in two of his last three starts, and while he was under center
against Washington last Sunday the Cowboys had just three plays longer than 9
yards.
The Cowboys looked formidable for most of the season,
scoring 31 or more points in eight of the first 12 games. The fact is they were
lucky to beat Buffalo and Detroit; they lost to Philadelphia; they looked
horrible against Carolina; and closed out the season with an ugly loss to
Washington.
Why the Cowboys play in the Super Bowl:
The Cowboys and Romo find their stride in the passing game.
Romo was second to only Tom Brady in touchdown passes with a team-record 36 and
the Dallas offense passes the football to set up the run. This is a team loaded
with talent and only needs the return of a healthy T.O to play in
February.
Why the Cowboys don't play in the Super Bowl:
Look no farther than last weekend's loss to Washington for
reasons why this team will be a playoff bust.
Terry Glenn's return is no substitute for what Owens does for the
Dallas offense. Owens may not be ready for the divisional playoff game, and
it's worth noting that Romo hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Owens left in
the second quarter of the win over Carolina.
Who to roster:
1) Tony Romo – Despite his poor finish, no
signal-caller offers more upside.
2) Patrick Crayton - Has been key in most of the
Dallas victories his season. That remains intact with a gimpy Owens.
3) Marion Barber III – Despite sharing snaps with
teammate Jones, he is the goal line and receiving threat in the Cowboys
offense.
4) Julius Jones - The starter by name is a fringe
option at best, but if the Cowboys garner the NFC Championship Jones will be
key component in an owners fantasy success
5) Jason Witten - Is terrific in points per
receptions formats (PPR) but has had little success grabbing Romo’s attention
in the red zone
6) Sam Hurd – Sleeper
Who not to roster:
1) Terry Glenn – The veteran will be active but
outside of receiving snaps for the injured Owens, his fantasy value is nil.
Injuries of note:
Cowboys have a first-round bye but injuries of note are:
C Andre Gurode (knee), CB Terence Newman (knee), WR Terrell Owens
(ankle), DT Jay Ratliff (knee), S Pat Watkins (ankle), WR Terry Glenn (knee)
3. N.Y. Giants
Why the Giants will play in the Super Bowl:
The team has won their last seven road games and it's likely
they will be a road team throughout the playoffs. The offense relies on bruiser Brandon Jacobs and does so
the entire postseason. Student body right, left, and up the gut. If the Giants
are to advance past Wild Card Weekend they won't do so on Eli Manning
right arm. Even headman Tom Coughlin knows that Tampa Bay is the league's
top-ranked pass defense. Finding success in the running game will assure
Manning the time and the success necessary to carry arguably the leagues most
balanced team to a date with destiny in February.
Why the Giants will not play in the Super Bowl:
The Bucs ranked third in the league with 35 takeaways this
season – 16 interceptions and 19 recovered fumbles. Safety Jermaine Philips
and defensive end Greg White are largely responsible for that success.
Philips finished the season with four INTs and three forced fumbles, while
White had a team-high seven forced fumbles and 8.5 sacks. The Giants will be
one-and-out if they don't do a better job of protecting the ball -- something
of an Achilles for them this season. They have turned over the ball on 34
occasions – 20 intercepted passes and 14 fumbles that were recovered by
opponents. A big part of the Giants secondary, Sam Madison (calf) and Kevin
Dockery (hip), are far from 100 percent and their absence defending veteran
QB Jeff Garcia is concerning.
Who to roster:
1) Eli Manning - The Giants are talented enough to
win three straight road playoff games, and if they do much of the credit will
go to Manning and his right arm
2) Brandon Jacobs - Is the key to the Giants wild
card success
3) Plaxico Burress – “Practice, I don’t need no stinking practice”
Who not to roster:
1) Amani Toomer – The veteran is tough to ignore in
deep formats, but there are just too many other options more dependable
2) Rueben Droughns – Now that Jacobs is healthy,
Droughns has continue to lose touches to the big bodied Jacobs.
Injuries of note:
Practice Report
DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
Wednesday CB Sam Madison (stomach), LB Kawika Mitchell
(knee), C Shaun O'Hara (knee), DE Dave Tollefson (concussion)
Thursday CB Kevin Dockery (hip), CB Sam Madison (stomach),
LB Kawika Mitchell (knee), C Shaun O'Hara (knee)
LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Wednesday WR Plaxico Burress (ankle), CB Kevin Dockery (hip)
Thursday WR Plaxico Burress (ankle), DE Dave Tollefson
(concussion)
FULL PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Wednesday RB Ahmad Bradshaw (calf), WR Sinorice Moss (back)
Thursday RB Ahmad Bradshaw (calf), WR Sinorice Moss (back)
4. Seattle Seahawks
Why the Seahawks will play in the Super Bowl:
Matt Hasselbeck continues his strong play, and
the defense finds a way to defend the run. The defensive front seven put up
solid numbers this season and defending Washington running back Clinton
Portis is key in the Seahawks advancing.
The Seahawks defense allowed only two 100-yard rushers, none since Week
5 and Willie Parker, and was second only to Chicago in three-and-out
drives during the regular season. The Seahawks can make noise in the playoffs
if they can return veteran Deion Branch to the starting lineup and keep
wide out D.J. Hackett from re-injuring his ankle. The 'Hawks are 5-2 at home in the playoffs
and 1-6 on the road. Dating back to Week 16 of 2002, the Seahawks are 34-7 at
home -- the second-best record in the league.
Why the Seahawks will not play in the Super Bowl:
The offense relies far too much on the passing game. The
running game. There isn't one. The Seahawks ranked 20th in rushing with former
MVP, Shaun Alexander, a non-fantasy-factor over the past two seasons.
Their average of 101.2 yards per game was the teams lowest since Mike
Holmgren's first year in 1999. Without a running game in December and January,
few teams find postseason success. The Seahawks recorded but nine rushing TDs
this season, one-third what Alexander produced alone two years ago.
Who to roster:
1) Matt Hasselbeck – The pass happy Holmgren offense
is a must start. The Seahawks player personnel will receive two games minimum
2) D.J. Hackett - If he stays healthy, he is arguably
the best option in the Seattle offense
3) Bobby Engram - The veteran continues to produce
for the injured
4) Nate Burleson – The big play threat in the
Hasselbeck passing attack
Who not to roster:
1) Deion Branch – His calf injury makes him
questionable for wild card weekend.
2) Shaun Alexander – His fantasy points will come
from a cheap touchdown or two – if he the team gives him the opportunity.
3) Maurice Morris – With a healthy Alexander and no
running game per se for the Seahawks, he has little fantasy value.
Injuries of note:
Practice Report
Thursday Practice not complete
DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
Wednesday WR Deion Branch (calf), LB Niko Koutouvides (knee)
FULL PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Wednesday RB Shaun Alexander (wrist)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why the Buccaneers will play in the Super Bowl:
Tampa Bay boasts one of the league’s best defenses, allowing
just 278.8 yards and 16.9 points per game. But one of the team’s greatest
strengths is its ability to take the pressure off by forcing opponents into
turnovers. The Buccaneers' 35 takeaways ranked third in the league, behind only
San Diego and Indianapolis. If Jon Gruden and Monte Kiffin can win the turnover
battle, they have a veteran quarterback and depth in the running game to
advance. Over half the players on the Buccaneers' 53-man roster have experience
in at least one playoff game, including seven that remain from Super Bowl
XXXVII.
Why the Buccaneers will not play in the Super Bowl:
Game breaking talent is lacking on this Tampa Bay squad. The
Buccaneers don't have anyone on the Pro Bowl roster. At 37 years old, Jeff
Garcia is not as mobile as he used to be, and could be a sore man following
this encounter. He has been sacked 19 times in 13 games. It’s not just Osi
Umenyiora that Garcia has to worry about – three other Giants players have
more than five sacks this season.
Who to roster:
1) Jeff Garcia – The aging veteran should find
success against a damaged Giants’ secondary.
2) Joey Galloway – The way to victory Sunday for the
Bucs goes through Galloway
3) Earnest Graham – The dual threat out of the
backfield has been the top free agent pick up of the ‘07’-‘08 season
Who not to roster:
1) Michael Pittman – Anyone named Michael for the
Bucs should not be a starting fantasy option this weekend
2) Michael Bennett – With Pittman healthy, Bennett is
a likely inactive
3) Michael Clayton - The rookie phenom continues to disappoint
4) Jerramy Stevens – The tight end in the Garcia led
offense does more blocking than route running
5) Ike Hilliard – The aging veteran was a starting
option during the first half of the season, but faded from sight when fatigue
and injuries set in.
Injuries of note:
Practice Report
DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
Wednesday LB Cato June (foot), G Arron Sears (ankle)
Thursday LB Cato June (foot)
LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
Wednesday WR Joey Galloway (team decision)
Thursday G Arron Sears (ankle
