| Super Sunday Soothsayer: SB42 |
| By Tony Finn |
Published
02/3/2008
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Sunday Soothsayers
| Unrated
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Tony Finn
Managing Editor and Director of Operations for Sports Grumblings LLC, is nationally published covering the National Football League, Major League Baseball, College Football and has been a FSWA Writer of the Year finalist. Involved with Fantasy Sports since 1973, Tony has hosted radio and internet broadcasts that include the 'Dog and Tony Show' with NFL draft analyst D.J Boyer, 'Football Central', 'Finn on Sports', 'Gridiron Gamblers', and is the Senior NFL analyst for the PBS broadcast of "NFL Intellect".
View all articles by Tony Finn
The Soothsayer says...
 | Will Eli be smiling at the podium following SB42? Yes, yes he will.
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Overall for the Season: 125-112-11
Wild Card Weekend - 3-1
Divisional Round 3-1
Championship Round 2-0
The betting line in sports is nothing more than a measure of public perception; and public perception is typically wrong when using a point spread. After all, Vegas didn't built a city of billion dollar casinos by losing to fish on a daily basis.
Sure, the Patriots are 18-0 and the Giants are the lowest seed to make it to the final Sunday of an NFL season in over two decades - but ladies and germs -- the Super Bowl is a different game.
Mistakes are magnified, the drama and pressure leading into the game doesn't offer previous participants any advantage, and the team that can run, stop the run and pressure the quarterback are the favorites to win the trophy.
That outline does not describe the New England Patriots "Run and Shoot" offense and their "Over-the-Hill Gang" on the stop side of the ball.
A quick glance at some trends for New York and New England heading into SB42.
* Giants are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
* Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
* Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
* Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
* Patriots are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Patriots are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Patriots are 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass.
* Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
* Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
* Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
As has been the case in most double digit Super Bowl lines, the sharp money is on the Giants.
Take the Giants - wait until close to game time when the public will be laying their square money on the Pats and tell your sucker friends -- it's "Easy Money"
The Giants keep SB42 close and have a chance to win in the fourth quarter -- Giants +13.
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