Wading through a bog of...
WHAT
TO EXPECT?
Trends,
stats & facts to keep in mind..
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WADING THROUGH A BOG OF RUMORS? Stuck in a fog of hype? Worry not,
Draft fans. While there's always confusion and chaos heading into the
big event, there are also some cool trends, stats and facts to watch for.
And based on what happened in recent drafts, this year's shouldn't be an
exception...
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1
Top picks don't always mean top players
Pop quiz: How many of the
NFL's 2007 All-Pros were the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft? Answer:
Zero. Of all the guys who were the best at their respective position
last season, the highest-drafted was LaDainian
Tomlinson (taken fifth overall in 2001). Record-setting QB Tom
Brady was actually a sixth-rounder in 2000 (No. 199
overall). So top picks don't necessarily translate into top players.
2
Is he Adrian Peterson or Cadillac
Williams?
The most exciting players in the draft are often
the running backs. Unfortunately they can also be the most
unpredictable and injury-prone. Examples? In 2005, Ronnie
Brown, Cedric
Benson, and Cadillac
Williams went Nos. 2, 4, and 5 (respectively). All are
nursing serious injuries right now. Reggie
Bush hasn't been as great as everyone expected. In other
words, don't be too upset if your team passes on your favorite
tailback.
3
The Mario
Williams Factor ("Stardom Sometimes Takes A While"
Rule)
Remember back in 2006, when everyone slammed the Houston
Texans for taking defensive end Mario
Williams over running back Reggie
Bush? Well, now everyone understand why Houston did it after
Williams busted out in 2007 with 14 sacks, while Bush seemed to spin
his wheels in New Orleans. It took Williams a year or so to figure
the NFL out, and that will be the case with a lot of the top guys
taken this April.
4
Beware Mr. Freefall
It seems like every year, a highly-hyped
quarterback takes a tumble down the first round of the Draft. In
2005 it was Aaron
Rodgers (pictured), who was seen as a potential No. 1 but landed at No.
24. In 2006 it was Matt
Leinart, who hit double-digits and was selected at No. 10 by
the Cardinals. Last year it was Brady
Quinn, who plummeted to No. 22. Who will it be this year?
Tough to say, but it's not a really deep year for passers, so
anything might happen.
5
Drafting Defense is safer than drafting offense
Of last year's 14
Offensive Pro Bowlers and 13 Defensive Pro Bowlers, only four of the
14 offensive guys were first-round draft picks. But of the defensive
guys, seven of the 13 were first-rounders (and only punter Andy
Lee was taken after the fourth round). While it's just a
sample from one year, it seems that, while taking defenders is less
sexy, it may be wiser.
6
Talent usually beats out specific needs
Case in point: Adrian
Peterson of the Vikings. Minny already had a very good featured back
in Chester
Taylor, but at No. 7 they scooped up Peterson, who went on
to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Wonder if the six teams
before them wish they had done the same thing?
7
First impressions can be best impressions
All the hype and
rumor-churning seems to have the draft stock of most NFL prospects
heading up and down the board like barometer. While some players can
improve their stock with a good workout or two, the fact is, most of
the players who go early in the draft are the ones that have already
been on NFL teams' radars for quite awhile, due mostly to
significant success against top competiton.
8
Small schools can produce big talent
Jerry
Rice, the greatest receiver in the history of the NFL, went
to Mississippi Valley State. So just because a big program has a lot
of guys available, it doesn't mean they will be top picks (or should
be). With that in mind, keep an eye out for guys like Leodis
McKelvin of Troy. He'll probably drop a bit because of small-school
status, but he has the goods to be a star.
9
Don't forget about the trades
While it's certainly a lot of fun to
try to project every pick by every team before the draft, don't
forget that trades play a big role in what teams do on draft day as
well. Example: Randy
Moss was acquired by the Patriots on draft day last year,
and that was a bigger pickup than any they made in the draft itself.
There will be scores of trades before and during the draft, so
expect that to be part of the process.
10
Round 7 can be heaven
While many NFL Draft fans tune out after
Round 1, history suggests most of the league's stars get picked in
the later rounds. They even come from Round 7 (the draft's final
round), when teams often take bigger risks that sometimes pay off.
Example: In 2006, the Saints gambled on a little-known wideout from
Hofstra named Marques
Colston with No. 252 overall. All he's done since then is
post two straight seasons with over 1,000 yards receiving. So, ya
just never know...