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NFL Draft: What to expect?
NFL Draft: What to expect?
By Fantasy Forecaster | Published  04/18/2008 | Football
Fantasy Forecaster
FANTASY SPORTS SERVICES INC. is a sports editorial, statistical information and fantasy games company that specializes in interactive content and games for sports fans.  

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Wading through a bog of...

WHAT TO EXPECT? 

Trends, stats & facts to keep in mind..


WADING THROUGH A BOG OF RUMORS? Stuck in a fog of hype? Worry not, Draft fans. While there's always confusion and chaos heading into the big event, there are also some cool trends, stats and facts to watch for. And based on what happened in recent drafts, this year's shouldn't be an exception... 

  Top picks don't always mean top players
Pop quiz: How many of the NFL's 2007 All-Pros were the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft? Answer: Zero. Of all the guys who were the best at their respective position last season, the highest-drafted was LaDainian Tomlinson (taken fifth overall in 2001). Record-setting QB Tom Brady was actually a sixth-rounder in 2000 (No. 199 overall). So top picks don't necessarily translate into top players.

  Is he Adrian Peterson or Cadillac Williams? 
The most exciting players in the draft are often the running backs. Unfortunately they can also be the most unpredictable and injury-prone. Examples? In 2005, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Cadillac Williams went Nos. 2, 4, and 5 (respectively). All are nursing serious injuries right now. Reggie Bush hasn't been as great as everyone expected. In other words, don't be too upset if your team passes on your favorite tailback.

  The Mario Williams Factor ("Stardom Sometimes Takes A While" Rule)
Remember back in 2006, when everyone slammed the Houston Texans for taking defensive end Mario Williams over running back Reggie Bush? Well, now everyone understand why Houston did it after Williams busted out in 2007 with 14 sacks, while Bush seemed to spin his wheels in New Orleans. It took Williams a year or so to figure the NFL out, and that will be the case with a lot of the top guys taken this April.

  Beware Mr. Freefall
It seems like every year, a highly-hyped quarterback takes a tumble down the first round of the Draft. In 2005 it was Aaron Rodgers (pictured), who was seen as a potential No. 1 but landed at No. 24. In 2006 it was Matt Leinart, who hit double-digits and was selected at No. 10 by the Cardinals. Last year it was Brady Quinn, who plummeted to No. 22. Who will it be this year? Tough to say, but it's not a really deep year for passers, so anything might happen.

  Drafting Defense is safer than drafting offense
Of last year's 14 Offensive Pro Bowlers and 13 Defensive Pro Bowlers, only four of the 14 offensive guys were first-round draft picks. But of the defensive guys, seven of the 13 were first-rounders (and only punter Andy Lee was taken after the fourth round). While it's just a sample from one year, it seems that, while taking defenders is less sexy, it may be wiser.

  Talent usually beats out specific needs
Case in point: Adrian Peterson of the Vikings. Minny already had a very good featured back in Chester Taylor, but at No. 7 they scooped up Peterson, who went on to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Wonder if the six teams before them wish they had done the same thing?

  First impressions can be best impressions
All the hype and rumor-churning seems to have the draft stock of most NFL prospects heading up and down the board like barometer. While some players can improve their stock with a good workout or two, the fact is, most of the players who go early in the draft are the ones that have already been on NFL teams' radars for quite awhile, due mostly to significant success against top competiton.

  Small schools can produce big talent
Jerry Rice, the greatest receiver in the history of the NFL, went to Mississippi Valley State. So just because a big program has a lot of guys available, it doesn't mean they will be top picks (or should be). With that in mind, keep an eye out for guys like Leodis McKelvin of Troy. He'll probably drop a bit because of small-school status, but he has the goods to be a star.

  Don't forget about the trades
While it's certainly a lot of fun to try to project every pick by every team before the draft, don't forget that trades play a big role in what teams do on draft day as well. Example: Randy Moss was acquired by the Patriots on draft day last year, and that was a bigger pickup than any they made in the draft itself. There will be scores of trades before and during the draft, so expect that to be part of the process.

 10  Round 7 can be heaven
While many NFL Draft fans tune out after Round 1, history suggests most of the league's stars get picked in the later rounds. They even come from Round 7 (the draft's final round), when teams often take bigger risks that sometimes pay off. Example: In 2006, the Saints gambled on a little-known wideout from Hofstra named Marques Colston with No. 252 overall. All he's done since then is post two straight seasons with over 1,000 yards receiving. So, ya just never know...



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