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Fantasy Impact of the NFL Draft - AFC Review
Fantasy Impact of the NFL Draft - AFC Review
By Roy Cankosyan | Published  05/3/2008 | Fantasy Football
Roy Cankosyan
Senior NFL writer Roy Cankosyan has been writing for Sports Grumblings for over 10 years, contributing his keen observations on both the NFL and fantasy football. He is also the co-host of  the "Gridiron Grumblings Live!" broadcast.  

View all articles by Roy Cankosyan
Fantasy Impact of the NFL Draft - AFC Review
 Jake Long - Miami Dolphins
Things are already looking brighter in Miami.

The 2008 draft is over, and it was an unmitigated success.  The event has become the Super Bowl of the off-season.  For die-hard fans like me, it is great to hear all this football talk in April.  Fans throughout the country have visions of the playoffs if their team has a good draft.  This month also happens to be the time when leagues (such as HEA)T conduct their unrestricted free agent auctions.  The winners of the draft are the players drafted early, because they will make millions in guaranteed money before they play a down in a regular season contest.  The losers of the draft are the fantasy league owners who had high draft picks in rookie drafts with visions of franchise running backs dancing in their heads.  The top three backs will all play in RBBCs to some extent, because they were drafted by teams with other talented running backs. 

Let’s take a look at the draft primarily from a fantasy perspective for each team.

AFC East

New England Patriots
Some folks believe that they reached with their selection of LB Jerod Mayo, but I’m not one of them.  Mayo is big, fast, and intelligent enough to thrive in Belichick’s defensive scheme.  New England drafts are typically loaded with defensive picks, and this one was no different with five of their seven picks being on the defensive side of the ball.

New York Jets
They drafted two players who could pay huge dividends, and that’s more than  you can say about a lot of teams.  LB/DE Vernon Gholston has Dwight Freeney-type pass rushing skills, and he might even play linebacker where he will certainly rack up more tackles than he would at end.  TE Dustin Keller could become Chad Pennington’s favorite target, because the latter loves to throw short.  Who cares if he can’t block for the running game?  In this era of specialization, that thankless task will be left to the other tight end in short yardage situations.

Buffalo Bills
They had one of the quietest drafts.  In fact, the Bills were one of the few non-playoff teams that had little fanfare either before or after the draft.  There’s not much fantasy material to pick from here.  WR James Hardy is 6'6" and could help in the red zone, because they don’t have a quality WR2.

Miami Dolphins
Jake Long obviously won’t have a direct impact, because we don’t employ offensive linemen (yet).  However, that doesn’t mean that he won’t have a tremendous impact to the value of RB Ronnie Brown or whoever quarterbacks the team in the future.  I like QB Chad Henne, but he won’t have any short-term value in non-keeper fantasy leagues. Second round pick DE Phillip Merling is better against the run than the pass at this point. 

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts
There’s really nothing here from a fantasy perspective.  The only name offensive players they picked were TE
Jacob Tamme in the fourth and RB Mike Hart in the sixth round. Tamme will be groomed to replace Dallas Clark in the future, while Hart may  become the primary backup to Addai. Given how  Indy RBs seem to come out of nowhere during the season, keeping an eye on Hart's progress would likely prove wise.

Jacksonville Jaguars
They traded up in the first round to grab DE Derrick Harvey and followed that up by drafting Quentin Groves with their second pick.  Both players will be much better pro than fantasy players, because they’re much better against the pass (i.e. sacks) than against the run (i.e. tackles).  Groves is a classic boom or bust pick, because some scouts believed that he was nearly as physically imposing as Vernon Gholston.  Unfortunately, he looked the part of Tarzan and played like Jane.

Tennessee Titans
They drafted a running back in the first two rounds for the third year in a row.  Owners of LenDale White and Chris Henry can’t be happy that Chris Johnson was drafted in the first round.  White had a very good year last season, so I can’t understand why the Titans felt the need to draft a back so early.

Houston Texans
Many experts had them selecting either Stewart or Mendenhall with their first round pick, because Ahman Green has been an unmitigated bust.  Unlike the Bears and Lions, who got their running back later in the draft, the Texans failed to fill that need.  Steve Slaton is hardly the answer, so look elsewhere.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers
What’s good for the Steelers is not necessarily good for us, because they now have a true RBBC.  It’s hard to fathom that they will unceremoniously kick Willie Parker to the curb, because he was leading the league in rushing at the time of his injury last season.  Unfortunately, RB Rashard Mendenhall will be relegated to short-yardage and relief duties in the short-term.  WR Limas Sweed is a big, fast target who Roethlisberger will welcome with open arms.

Cleveland Browns
It’s hard to come up with an impact rookie when you’re not picking until the fourth round.  LB Beau Bell could be a factor in IDP leagues as a replacement for Andra Davis next year.

Baltimore Ravens
They would have loved to have picked QB Matt Ryan, but they could not swing a deal with the Rams.  So much for all the talk about it being impossible to move a top-five pick because of the guaranteed money associated with it.  I’ve always been skeptical of such talk.  You always seem to read about all the deals that fell through on Monday, because the team at the top asked for a fortune to move their pick.  The Rams wanted a second and a fourth in addition to the Ravens' first, so you could hardly say that the former was being unreasonable.  Nonetheless, the team decided to go on the cheap with QB Joe Flacco.  I’m not fond of players from small schools, especially quarterbacks, because the competition faced by them is not nearly comparable with ones coming from big-time college conferences like the SEC.  I can’t understand the second round selection of 5'8" RB Ray Rice with Kevin Smith still available.

Cincinnati Bengals
Their top pick, LB Keith Rivers has a chance to be an impact fantasy player. He reminds me of a larger Derrick Brooks.  Rivers will run all over the field to make tackles and defend passes as well.  The selections of WRs Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell provide insurance for malcontent Chad Johnson.  Of the two, I prefer Caldwell even though he was drafted a round later.

 
AFC West

San Diego Chargers
They have been working hard to improve their secondary over the past few seasons.  Unfortunately for us, defensive backs don’t have much value in fantasy land.  Third round pick FB Jacob Hester will eventually help LaDainian Tomlinson, but he’ll have far less value than fifth round pick Marcus Thomas, who will be in the running for RB2 duties.

Denver Broncos
There were some pre-draft reports that they were interested in Stewart or Mendenhall, because Shanahan was convinced that he was tired of filling the running back spot with a new starter every season.  That might still be true, but they bypassed that desire until their fifth round selection of Ryan Torain.  Like most other teams, they emphasized the offensive line, in particular the tackle spot, early and waited on the running back.  That seems to be the trend these days, because you keep hearing about how easy it is to find a running back.

Kansas City Chiefs
DT Glenn Dorsey was considered the first or second best player (behind McFadden) in this year’s draft until it became common knowledge that he played with a stress fracture last year, dating back to the prior season.  Unfortunately, DTs don’t carry much value in fantasy land, so pass on him in favor of the DEs.  RB Jamaal Charles will strictly be a change of pace backup to Larry Johnson and last year’s draftee Kolby Smith, so don’t pin any hopes on him.

Oakland Raiders
RB Darren McFadden is not the second coming of Adrian Peterson or Bo Jackson.  He doesn’t run with the same power or body lean.  Now, the good news.  He played in the toughest conference in college football, the SEC.  McFadden tore up good defenses like LSU, so you know he won’t be a bust.  The problem is his tendency to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.  That lack of judgment killed the career of Brien Taylor.  For you non-baseball fans, Taylor was a modern-day prospect version of Sandy Koufax.  He was destined for stardom until he decided to defend his brother in a bar fight and subsequently tore up his shoulder.



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