| Fantasy Forecast®: Age-Old Issues |
| By John Georgopoulos |
Published
06/22/2008
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Fantasy Forecast
| Unrated
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Hitting the Wall
Terrell Owens will be 34 when the season starts... but don't sweat it, according to Mighty Max-- T.O. has another year left in him before he begins to slow down.
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Performance by Position and Age, 1997-2007
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Age
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QB
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RB
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TE
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WR
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Avg. WCOFF
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% Diff
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Avg. WCOFF
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% Diff
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Avg. WCOFF
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% Diff
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Avg. WCOFF
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% Diff
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22
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47.05
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n/a
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125.87
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n/a
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61
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n/a
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99.30
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n/a
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23
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170.03
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261.37
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96.91
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-23.01
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62.36
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2.22
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34.46
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-65.30
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24
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170.82
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0.47
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90.27
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-6.86
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57.20
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-8.28
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65.43
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89.86
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25
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174.00
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1.86
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73.98
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-18.04
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52.35
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-8.47
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71.65
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9.51
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26
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187.64
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7.84
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69.91
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-5.50
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67.60
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29.14
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89.76
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25.27
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27
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168.07
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-10.43
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95.81
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37.04
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68.98
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2.04
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80.08
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-10.78
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28
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252.77
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50.40
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93.08
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-2.84
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53.89
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-21.88
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104.10
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30.01
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29
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137.79
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-45.49
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57.57
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-38.16
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46.50
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-13.72
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110.17
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5.82
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30
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230.02
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66.93
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81.68
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41.88
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32.36
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-30.40
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110.61
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0.40
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31
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229.21
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-0.35
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84.06
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2.92
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40.67
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25.65
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124.51
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12.56
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32
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192.93
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-15.83
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111.20
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32.28
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58.70
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44.34
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101.01
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-18.87
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33
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155.09
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-19.62
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47.48
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-57.30
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6.10
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-89.61
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108.98
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7.88
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34
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170.57
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9.98
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31.64
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-33.36
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38.86
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537.00
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166.35
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52.65
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35
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224.64
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31.70
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42.58
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34.59
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9.75
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-74.91
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188.94
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13.58
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36
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179.11
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-20.27
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28.23
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-33.69
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44.10
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352.31
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144.14
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-23.71
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37
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135.18
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-24.53
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19.50
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-30.93
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n/a
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n/a
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125.03
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-13.26
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38
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165.58
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22.49
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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69.10
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-44.73
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39
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172.70
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4.30
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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72.95
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5.57
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40
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3.45
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-98.00
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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n/a
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So what does all this mean? Let’s look at the most scrutinized position, running back. We’ve all heard the adage, “Running backs hit the wall at 30” and “Don’t draft any RBs turning 30”. We’ve all heard these words of advice from various fantasy “experts”, but are
they true? The answer is a resounding NO! While there seems to be a magical age where RB performance nosedives, it is not at 30; very clearly, it is at the age of 33 that running backs, on average, begin to see a steady erosion of their skills. As a matter of fact, if not for the anomalous performance of two fullbacks at the age of 35—William Henderson and Lorenzo Neal—who both tallied a bit over 50 points, it would be all downhill for runners after the age of 33. So when
determining the value of 30 year olds this season, like Edgerrin James, don’t let age color your
decision!
While QBs and TEs are all over the map in terms of spotting a trend, the WRs seem to enjoy largely improved performance between the ages of 25-35. This is perhaps counter-intuitive, as most observers would say that at a position where speed is at a premium—like wide receiver—performance would likely degrade more rapidly with age. But thanks to Mighty Max and faith in numbers, there’s no need for us to rely on intuition.
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