Senior Editor and Founder John T. Georgopoulos is a 15-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. He has written for several national fantasy magazines and has appeared on sports talk stations around the country.
John has also been a six-time finalist for various Fantasy Sports Writer Association (FSWA) awards; his Fantasy Forecast column was awarded the 2006 Best Fantasy Football In-Season Series by the FSWA.
Are kickers worth anything more than the last pick of your draft?
All veteran fantasy football GMs know the age-old maxim: never draft a kicker or defense until the last picks of your draft. With rare exception, this is an immutable law of fantasy football; but is it sound advice?
"Kee-king a Touchdown"
I
researched the issue, so I instructed the Sports Grumblings' computer, Mighty
Max, to pull up the top 12 kickers, by season, since 2005. For this
example, we're using the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF) scoring
for kickers:
2007
2006
2005
Crosby, Mason
GB
156
Bironas, Rob
Ten
150
Folk, Nick
Dal
142
Brown, Josh
Sea
141
Gostkowski, Stephen
NE
140
Hanson, Jason
Det
139
Gould, Robbie
Chi
138
Graham, Shayne
Cin
136
Brown, Kris
Hou
132
Dawson, Phil
Cle
129
Suisham, Shaun
Wsh
128
Kaeding, Nate
SD
127
Gould, Robbie
Chi
155
Wilkins, Jeff
StL
148
Scobee, Josh
Jax
133
Hanson, Jason
Det
130
Stover, Matt
Bal
129
Graham, Shayne
Cin
125
Nedney, Joe
SF
125
Rackers, Neil
Ari
125
Brown, Josh
Sea
124
Kaeding, Nate
SD
124
Elam, Jason
Den
123
Vinatieri, Adam
Ind
122
Rackers, Neil
Ari
165
Feely, Jay
NYG
162
Graham, Shayne
Cin
138
Wilkins, Jeff
StL
134
Tynes, Lawrence
KC
133
Kasay, John
Car
133
Vanderjagt, Mike
Ind
128
Elam, Jason
Den
126
Lindell, Rian
Buf
126
Brown, Josh
Sea
124
Stover, Matt
Bal
124
Reed, Jeff
Pit
123
Looking
at the results, we see some interesting trends:
Over the past
three seasons, two kickers made the top 12 each season: Josh
Brown and Shayne Graham.
This is a return to the norm from last year, when four kickers made the
cut.
No kicker was in
the top five all three years.
While the top
kicker's score was varied 6-8% in either direction, the 12th-rated
kicker's score was amazingly consistent..
On average, the 12th-rated
kicker could be expected to produce close to 77% of the top-rated kicker’s
output.
The lesson: trying to determine the top-rated kicker from season to season is a crapshoot. Furthermore, unlike the other positional players, selecting a "top" kicker isn't likely to result in a top performance. Think about it: we can debate whether LaDanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson or Brian Westbrook will be the top-rated runner, but we can likely agree that all three will be within the top 12 at their position. No such luck with the kickers.
