John Georgopoulos
Senior Editor and Founder John T. Georgopoulos is a 15-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. He has written for several national fantasy magazines and has appeared on sports talk stations around the country.
John has also been a six-time finalist for various Fantasy Sports Writer Association (FSWA) awards; his Fantasy Forecast column was awarded the 2006 Best Fantasy Football In-Season Series by the FSWA.
View all articles by John Georgopoulos
Kickers
Are kickers worth anything more than the last pick of your draft?
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All veteran fantasy football GMs know the age-old maxim: never draft a kicker or defense until the last picks of your draft. With rare exception, this is an immutable law of fantasy football; but is it sound advice?
"Kee-king a Touchdown"
I
researched the issue, so I instructed the Sports Grumblings' computer, Mighty
Max, to pull up the top 12 kickers, by season, since 2005. For this
example, we're using the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF) scoring
for kickers:
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2007
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2006
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2005
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Crosby, Mason
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GB
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156
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Bironas, Rob
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Ten
|
150
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Folk, Nick
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Dal
|
142
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Brown, Josh
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Sea
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141
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Gostkowski, Stephen
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NE
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140
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Hanson, Jason
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Det
|
139
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Gould, Robbie
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Chi
|
138
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Graham, Shayne
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Cin
|
136
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Brown, Kris
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Hou
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132
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Dawson, Phil
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Cle
|
129
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Suisham, Shaun
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Wsh
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128
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Kaeding, Nate
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SD
|
127
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Gould, Robbie
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Chi
|
155
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Wilkins, Jeff
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StL
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148
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Scobee, Josh
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Jax
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133
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Hanson, Jason
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Det
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130
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Stover, Matt
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Bal
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129
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Graham, Shayne
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Cin
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125
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Nedney, Joe
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SF
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125
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Rackers, Neil
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Ari
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125
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Brown, Josh
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Sea
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124
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Kaeding, Nate
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SD
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124
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Elam, Jason
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Den
|
123
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Vinatieri, Adam
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Ind
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122
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Rackers, Neil
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Ari
|
165
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Feely, Jay
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NYG
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162
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Graham, Shayne
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Cin
|
138
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Wilkins, Jeff
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StL
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134
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Tynes, Lawrence
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KC
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133
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Kasay, John
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Car
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133
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Vanderjagt, Mike
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Ind
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128
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Elam, Jason
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Den
|
126
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Lindell, Rian
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Buf
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126
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Brown, Josh
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Sea
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124
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Stover, Matt
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Bal
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124
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Reed, Jeff
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Pit
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123
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Looking
at the results, we see some interesting trends:
- Over the past
three seasons, two kickers made the top 12 each season: Josh
Brown and Shayne Graham.
This is a return to the norm from last year, when four kickers made the
cut.
- No kicker was in
the top five all three years.
- While the top
kicker's score was varied 6-8% in either direction, the 12th-rated
kicker's score was amazingly consistent..
- On average, the 12th-rated
kicker could be expected to produce close to 77% of the top-rated kicker’s
output.
The lesson: trying to determine the top-rated kicker from season to season is a crapshoot. Furthermore, unlike the other positional players, selecting a "top" kicker isn't likely to result in a top performance. Think about it: we can debate whether LaDanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson or Brian Westbrook will be the top-rated runner, but we can likely agree that all three will be within the top 12 at their position. No such luck with the kickers.
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