Are defensive teams easier to predict than kickers? |
Getting
Defensive
Many
of my readers know that I am a huge proponent of using individual defensive
players (IDP) in fantasy leagues; but realizing that many leagues have not seen
the light of fantasy football salvation, I'll try to provide some insight into
the performance of defense/special teams selections.
Again,
I imposed on Mighty Max to provide me with data on Defense/Special
Teams fantasy scoring since 2005. The results:
|
2007
|
2006
|
2005
|
|
San Diego
|
126
|
|
New England
|
117
|
|
Green Bay
|
104
|
|
Seattle
|
99
|
|
Dallas
|
96
|
|
NY Giants
|
94
|
|
Indianapolis
|
88
|
|
Tennessee
|
84
|
|
Jacksonville
|
83
|
|
Minnesota
|
81
|
|
Detroit
|
80
|
|
Chicago
|
80
|
|
|
Chicago
|
145
|
|
Baltimore
|
138
|
|
San
Diego
|
103
|
|
Minnesota
|
101
|
|
Tennessee
|
98
|
|
Miami
|
96
|
|
Buffalo
|
95
|
|
Philadelphia
|
93
|
|
Arizona
|
91
|
|
Green
Bay
|
89
|
|
Seattle
|
88
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
86
|
|
|
Chicago
|
110
|
|
NY Giants
|
104
|
|
Indianapolis
|
95
|
|
Minnesota
|
95
|
|
Seattle
|
93
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
93
|
|
Jacksonville
|
90
|
|
Carolina
|
89
|
|
Tennessee
|
89
|
|
Miami
|
88
|
|
Atlanta
|
85
|
|
St. Louis
|
85
|
|
Again,
some interesting trends are presented by the results:
- Four teams have finished in the top 12 three years running: the
Bears, Seahawks, Vikings and Titans.
- No team was in
the top five all three years.
- The 12th-ranked
team's totals remained within 7% of each other..
- On average, the
12th-rated D/ST could be expected to produce about 67% of the top-rated
D/ST.
These
findings would indicate that selecting defensive teams might be a bit easier than kickers in that defensive teams seem to
display a bit more consistency amongst the top performers.
The Payoff
OK, all this information is interesting, but does it support the theory that you should wait on kickers and defensive teams in your draft? In general, the closer the 12th-rated spot to the top-rated spot, the longer you can wait to draft that position (especially if the points produced by the position are close). Given kickers and D/ST, the numbers indicate that D/ST should be drafted ahead of kickers.
But
what about when these two positions are compared to the other offensive positions?
The same type of analysis indicates the following order of value: WR, RR, QB, TE-and
all four shake out ahead of the kickers
and defensive teams.
Sometimes, those old age-old maxims actually deserve
to be age-old maxims!
