Is Matt Cassel up to the challenge of leading the Patriots?

When was the last time the very first game of the season proved pivotal in determining the eventual Super Bowl contenders? Truth be told, the answer is never. Not even this past week. Sure, several teams’ fortunes have taken a turn, some downward and others surprisingly positive. But even those teams that suffered seemingly catastrophic injury like the Patriots, Chargers, Titans, and Seahawks will soldier on with different personnel. They’re just going to have to rely on players other than their normal superstars to elevate their game to stay competitive. In the Parity Era of the NFL, injury is the greatest equalizer of all. When superstars go down, the coaching staff, organizational talent evaluation, and the adaptability of the game plan to players normally residing lower on the depth chart become instrumental in determining a team’s competitiveness. Ultimately, those same considerations will determine the fantasy value of the players in question.

Let us consider the Patriots’ situation, and just what we can expect from their players going forward. Certainly, the loss of Tom Brady will have a ripple effect on the rest of the team’s offensive unit. The receiving squad will be most affected, with Randy Moss perhaps taking the biggest hit. Teams will try to take Moss, as the primary deep threat, out of the game and force Matt Cassel to throw to receivers on the short to medium routes. I am less than confident that Moss will step up his game for a new quarterback. If Cassel can’t get the ball to him, he will sink into a funk similar to his final days in Minnesota, or his entire tenure as a Raider. Then the Patriots will have a problem on their hands. A lot will depend on Moss himself, and how he reacts to his new situation.

Wes Welker was anointed the number two receiver by the Pats, but was best utilized on short routes over the middle last season, normally the slot receiver’s job. Jabar Gaffney ran the slot routes during the pre-season and will continue in that role. I believe that either Welker or Gaffney will emerge as Cassel’s top target on those shorter routes, along with the tight ends, Dave Thomas (for now) and Ben Watson (when finally healthy). In the end, it will be Welker and Watson who will benefit most from Cassel’s ascension to the starting job, with Moss and Gaffney losing value among New England’s receiver corps.

As for Cassel’s value, that will depend mostly on how much he has learned as Brady’s understudy these last four seasons, and how well Bill Belichick has prepared him. It is obvious that Belichick has confidence in Cassel, as it turns out the token auditions of Chris Simms and Tim Rattay weren’t even auditions, since neither took a physical or even met with Belichick. The only move the Patriots made was to add QB Matt Gutierrez, cut at the end of preseason, to the practice squad. Cassel did a fairly good job off the bench last week, but he’s getting his first start since high school against an improved Jets defense this week. This will be a tough week for Cassel, but much more difficult tests lie ahead, against defensive powerhouse Pittsburgh and Buffalo’s chameleon-like blitz schemes, which baffled veteran Matt Hasselbeck last week. How Cassel handles games against those teams will ultimately determine his fantasy value. He has a decent arm, and it appears he can throw accurately. What we don’t know is how well he can read a blitz, or recognize coverages, or stand in the pocket while plays develop, because outside of the useless pregame season, the man has not played. So ask me again in a couple of weeks. My gut tells me that he is going to be all right, and that the Patriots will hardly seem much different.

The Titans are a slightly different story, and it’s a bit easier to get a handle on their situation. Vince Young will be out for a few weeks with a sprained MCL, and the team will be led by veteran QB Kerry Collins, in his thirteenth year of NFL play calling. He still has a decent arm and plenty of experience in the Titans system, so look for him to have no problem hooking up with Justin Gage, whose fantasy value probably goes up a bit. Also look for Chris Johnson to make a significant contribution this week, not only on the ground, but in the short passing game from Collins, who could find himself targeted by former teammate Antwan Odom this week.

The Chargers defense will sorely miss its emotional leader with Shawne Merriman now gone for the season. Even with him in the lineup last week, the defensive front was slow in pursuing Jake Delhomme, and often lost the battle for control of the line of scrimmage. The secondary is where the biggest problems lie, as they were overly aggressive at times and allowed themselves to be beaten when they played the ball instead of the man. Overall, the Chargers D will be just fine, as long as Merriman’s replacement, Jyles Tucker, elevates his game and NT Jamal Williams stays (gets?) healthy.

The Seahawks situation is the worst of the four. They’ve lost too many receivers in the early going, and their ground game is nothing like it used to be. They should be OK this week against the 49ers, and they do have players like Deion Branch and Bobby Engram that are currently injured, but should be returning at some point. I’d avoid counting on any Seattle’s offensive unit for fantasy production until some of their better players get healthy. Particularly Matt Hasselbeck, as you will see if you read on. Enjoy the Week 2 games.