Tim McCullough is the Editor of MLB for Sports Grumblings. He has
played in, and been the commissioner, for fantasy baseball and football
leagues for over ten years. His musings on fantasy baseball and
football, news, brews, and the blues have appeared online and in
print.
Miami RB Ronnie Brown used trick plays to post a monster game last week.
Just three weeks into the 2008 season it appears that Lady Parity is going to rule this year. The Week 3 games were definitely a case of the meek inheriting the earth, as several of the top teams either fell to lesser opponents or came perilously close, winning on pure guile. The Patriots had their three-cornered hats handed to them by the lowly Dolphins in a stunner of a game at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots’ Matt Cassell-led offense plodded along slowly and simply couldn’t outshoot an efficient and tricky Dolphins offense. They squandered numerous red-zone opportunities, and never really posed a serious threat. The Patriot defense was thoroughly confused and flat-footed most of the day, giving up yardage to the Fish in bunches. The Dolphins lined up RB Ronnie Brown as the quarterback on six plays, three leading to rushing touchdowns and a fourth leading to a passing touchdown on a halfback option from Brown. Each time the Dolphins ran the play, a college spread formation called “Wildcat”, it seemed obvious to everyone but the Patriots what was about to happen. It’s a good thing the Pats have a bye this week, as they need to regroup in a big way. What once looked like an easy schedule for the defending AFC Champs now appears to be a minefield of trouble, and there are serious doubts among the various pundits about how the team will respond to the challenge.
The Colts also took a lickin’ at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaquars, who completely dominated the line of scrimmage and racked up 236 rushing yards on 46 carries. Peyton Manning and company pulled off a comeback late in the game, scoring a TD with just a minute and change left on the clock. But he left the Jags too much time to play with, and the Colts defensive line couldn’t contain. David Garrard completed a series of short passes to move the ball downfield close enough for a 51-yard field goal by Josh Scobee to seal the win with four seconds to spare. Indy has a bye this week also, during which Manning will try to find his still-missing rhythm, and the defense will seek to patch the massive holes left by the injury to Bob Sanders among other issues.
The Pats and Colts weren’t the only perennial contenders to get whipped this week, as the Bears were mesmerized by the short passing game of Brian Griese and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Chicago surrendered more than 400 passing yards to Griese, who attempted 67 passes, just three shy of the NFL record set by Drew Bledsoe. The Buffalo Bills, rapidly looking like the team to beat in the AFC East, barely escaped with a win over the Raiders. Oddly enough, the only reason the game was close was because of Buffalo’s own inept play. But they won it by scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter, mainly on strong passing from Trent Edwards who completed 24 of 39 passes for 279 yards and a TD. A Ryan Lindell field goal with no time left on the clock sealed the Bills first win in the final seconds of regulation since 1989, and only the second such win in the team’s history. The Giants also just managed to squeak by the Bengals in overtime. This was a thrilling game, with three scores occurring in the final 5 minutes of regulation. But Eli Manning outgunned Carson Palmer in what was arguably one of the best games of the week.
In last week’s Musings, I showed you some sad looking numbers associated with teams that start the season 0-2. Well if you thought those numbers were eye-openers, you should see the fate that awaits teams like the Bengals, Browns, Chiefs, Lions, and Rams who are all now sitting at 0-3. Over the past 20 years there have been 92 teams that have started the season 0-3. Of those only seven finished with a record above .500, and only three of those seven made it to the playoffs. The 1998 Buffalo Bills and 1995 Detroit Lions notched wild card berths by finishing 10-6, and the 1992 San Diego Chargers galloped their way to an 11-5 record and won the AFC West title. By the way, those Chargers actually started 0-4. For the five teams that have yet to win a game (there are actually six, the Texans are 0-2), Lady Parity has yet to make an appearance, and likely won’t this season. They are going to need a visit from Lady Luck. That is, if she ever leaves Denver.
Stock Up
Billy Miller, TE – New Orleans Saints – Injuries have decimated the Saints in the first three weeks of the season. TE Jeremy Shockey is down with a sports hernia, WR Marques Colston is out with a thumb injury, TE Mark Campbell is questionable with a hamstring injury, and it looks like oft-injured WR David Patten will miss time with a groin injury. All of which leaves Drew Brees with few targets beyond Reggie Bush, which is somewhat of a problem since the Saints offensive success depends on Brees’ ability to spread the ball around. Brees is going to have to throw the ball to someone else, and Miller is as good a pass catcher as any for him to target. Brees has already shown that he is willing to go to Miller in key situations. With Shockey gone and Campbell hurt, Miller will likely be the starting tight end for the foreseeable future and could be rather busy if defenses key on Bush as they should. With the 49ers, Vikings, and Raiders on the Saints docket over the next three weeks, Miller could be a great bye week replacement based on the match ups alone.
Matt Jones, WR – Jacksonville Jaguars – He’s been the most consistently productive receiver with 15 catches for 173 yards in the first three games to lead the team in receptions and receiving yards. The problem with the Jags offense is that it is built around the two running backs, so David Garrard simply does not target the wideouts as often as any fantasy owner would like. In fact, in last week’s game only six of Garrard’s 16 completions went to wideouts. However, the good news is that five of those six completions went to Jones. Overall it appears that Jones is a much-improved player, as his routes are crisper and he is doing a better job of catching the ball in traffic and gaining yards after the catch. Look for him to continue to be Garrard’s favorite wide receiver target, and with the Texans next up, Jones might even catch one in the end zone.
Trent Edwards, QB – Buffalo Bills – Buffalo played an awful game last week, loaded with penalties and mental mistakes on both sides of the ball. While Edwards wasn’t quite perfect, throwing his first interception of the season, he looked awfully good engineering three scoring drives in the fourth quarter that lead to 17 points and the Bills third win of the season. This week the Bills face everyone’s favorite stat-padder, the St. Louis Rams, whose porous secondary has allowed an average of 272 yards per game. Edwards should have a field day throwing deep to his wideouts. Don’t be surprised to see him rack up more than 300 yards and several TD’s against the doormat of the NFL.
Stock Down
Matt Schaub, QB – Houston Texans – Schaub is off to an awful start this season. He’s thrown five interceptions and just one touchdown for a passer rating of 50.3 after two games. He often throws the ball without properly setting his feet and has been trying to force the ball into coverage instead of checking off or throwing the ball away. In his defense, the cast around him, receivers and offensive line alike, have been just as awful. He is not getting much protection from his line, as shown by the eight sacks already, and he often gets hit after getting rid of the ball. There have been numerous dropped passes, including two by Andre Johnson that would have been touchdowns. The Texans face Jacksonville this week, and if Schaub doesn’t step his game up a few notches he could find himself holding a clipboard and watching Sage Rosenfels do his job next week.
Derek Anderson, QB – Cleveland Browns - As bad as Schaub has been, Derek Anderson has been even worse. He too has five interceptions along with two touchdowns and a passer rating of 43.5. The mistakes he’s made have often come at critical times in the game, such as the two third quarter interceptions in a 50 second span that he threw against Baltimore last week, both of which led to touchdowns and dashed any hopes of staying in the game. He too is not getting good pass protection as he was sacked five times by Baltimore last week. Compare that against only getting sacked six times in nine games last season. To say that this week’s game against the Bengals is a must-win for Anderson (and Romeo Crennel for that matter) would be an understatement. Anderson is on a very short leash and could be supplanted by Brady Quinn early in the game if Crennel decides he’s seen enough.
Vince Young, QB – Tennessee Titans – If Young was feeling down on himself and collapsing under the weight of pressure before, he can only be feeling worse now. Wily 14-year veteran Kerry Collins has been putting on a clinic since taking over the reigns of the Titans offense, essentially showing the “Kid” how it’s done. In addition to his passing being crisp and well distributed amongst the receiving corps, Collins has done well with the bootleg, Young’s usual calling card. Against the Texans, Collins rattled off a pair of runs, gaining 12 yards on one and 17 yards on the other in key situations. The Titans face the Vikings and their porous secondary this week, a matchup made in heaven for Collins to showcase his passing talents again, possibly cementing his hold on the starting job. With the Titans currently at 3-0 under Collins, another win would provide Jeff Fisher with little incentive to make a change at the top of his offense, especially if it’s firing on all cylinders. If Young is reinstated in the starting job, the pressure to deliver is going to be even greater, and considering his already delicate psyche, Fisher might stick with Collins until he’s forced to make a change due to injury or a poor performance. All of which means, Young could be on the sidelines longer than originally thought.
Tim McCullough is the Editor of MLB for Sports Grumblings. He has
played in, and been the commissioner, for fantasy baseball and football
leagues for over ten years. His musings on fantasy baseball and
football, news, brews, and the blues have appeared online and in
print. 