From a fantasy point of view, is Todd Heap's career over?

Week 4 of the season turned out to be rather interesting in that Lady Parity showed up once again. While some folks think that injury is the great equalizer, the way that Lady Parity really works her magic is through turnovers. Sure, injuries can expose the lack of depth on a team. But it’s the turnover, and the takeaway, that makes or breaks teams. There were several great examples of this in the games played last weekend.

In the Tampa Bay-Green Bay game, the final score was 30-21. Both teams had three interceptions, so neither Brian Griese nor Aaron Rogers had a particularly good day. Considering the Packers only managed 181 yards of total offense, the only reason they were still in the game at the end was because of the interceptions that Griese so generously gave the Green Bay defense, one of which was returned for a touchdown. However, all else being roughly equal, the difference in the game was a fumble by Green Bay that was recovered by Buccaneer Jermaine Phillips and returned for a touchdown.

Case in point number two is the Cowboys- Redskins game that finished with a score of 26-24. Tony Romo played his heart out in this one, throwing the ball 47 times and racking up 300 passing yards. However, an interception he threw in the fourth quarter led to the field goal that put the Redskins ahead to stay. Meanwhile, Jason Campbell was every bit as good as Romo, but did not throw an interception. In fact, he has yet to throw one this season, one of the reasons the Redskins have won three consecutive games since their Opening Day fiasco.

Just to hammer the point home, let us look at the Jets–Cardinals matchup, which featured six touchdown passes from gunslinger Brett Favre. Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner had an incredible day as well, firing off 57 pass attempts and getting 40 completions for 472 yards. However, as fate would have it, the incredible part of his day was tossing three interceptions and fumbling the ball four times, losing possession on three of them. Six turnovers by Warner led to four scoring drives by the Jets, three for touchdowns and one for a field goal for a total of 24 points. When you consider the final score of 56-35, and the difference in the point totals for the day of 21 points, it is apparent that turnovers made all the difference in the game.

What does the turnover story tell us? Well, so far we have only looked at half of the story. When one team turns the ball over, another team gains an opportunity. So to really see the impact of turnovers you need to look at the giveaway/takeaway numbers. For instance, the Titans have thrown three interceptions and fumbled the ball three times for a total of six giveaways. But they have also caught eight interceptions and recovered four fumbles for a total of 12 takeaways. Overall, they have a plus six-giveaway/takeaway outcome. This corresponds nicely to their 4-0 record. In the AFC, the Steelers and Bills also have positive giveaway/takeaway numbers and winning records that place them at the top of the standings. The exception is the Denver Broncos who have a negative giveaway/takeaway number (-3), yet still have a 3-1 record that places them atop the AFC West. Of all the AFC leaders right now, I think the Broncos are probably the least deserving of their standing, as their defense is among the worst in football. It’s safe to say that eventually the Broncos will be exposed as pretenders. Those turnovers are going to catch up to them eventually.

Does the giveaway/takeaway scenario hold true in the NFC? For the most part it does. All of the teams that have a giveaway/takeaway differential that is either neutral (0) or rests on the positive side, have winning records, or are sitting atop their divisions with a record of 2-2 or better, except for one team – the Dallas Cowboys. They are a true anomaly when it comes to turnovers. They have only turned the ball over six times this season, four interceptions and two fumbles. But they have only amassed two takeaways, which gives them a differential of minus 4. They are 3-1 in one of the toughest divisions in the NFC, and many pundits have them pegged as Super Bowl contenders. I believe this makes them a team that is still seeking its’ identity. They could go either way at this point. If you see my comments below regarding their defense, you will get a better sense of what I mean by this. In the meantime, keep a close eye on the turnovers. They will prove to make or break the contenders this season. Lady Parity demands it.

Stock Up

Deuce McAllister, RB – New Orleans Saints - Prior to Week 4 McAllister had all of two carries, which came during the Week 2 loss to Washington. After the effort he put in against San Francisco last week, head coach Sean Payton made it clear that McAllister will be a factor in the Saints offense going forward. While 20 carries for 73 yards and a TD isn’t exactly a dominating performance, it was important for the Saint overall offensive effort in several ways. First, it reestablished the inside running game that has been missing so far. Second, it opened up the passing game for Drew Brees, who took full advantage of the play action options in finding nine different receivers, including McAllister who caught a ten yard pass to convert a third down on what ended up being a touchdown drive. There didn’t seem to be any concerns about McAllister’s reconstructed knees, as he strung together six consecutive running plays at the end of the game to run out the clock. What was even more encouraging was seeing him run when there were no holes for him. He moved the pile, broke tackles in the backfield, and even dove over the line to score his touchdown. In all, McAllister looked a lot like the power runner of old, and should be a decent fantasy option as long as he stays healthy.

Mewelde Moore, RB – Pittsburgh Steelers – RB Willie Parker was still sidelined with a sprained knee and couldn’t play, fullback Carey Davis sprained an ankle and was not very effective anyway, and then rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall cracked his shoulder, leaving Mewelde Moore as the only healthy active back by the end of last Monday night’s game against the Baltimore Ravens. Though he didn’t do much running out of the backfield (nobody else did much either), he did make a key 24 yard catch and run on third down and eight yards to go to set up the game winning field goal in overtime. Altogether he contributed 50 all-purpose yards on 11 touches, showing enough ability to make him a useful cog in the Pittsburgh offensive machine. Mendenhall is on IR, Parker won’t play again this week, and Davis is questionable at this point, so Moore is looking like the starter for this week’s game with the Jaguars. Moore is a capable runner who can run inside despite a relatively small frame, and he lacks the explosiveness needed from a starting running back. However, he is much more useful as a receiver than a ball carrier and will do most of his damage catching passes from Big Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers signed Najeh Davenport to shore up the depth chart a bit, but Moore should still get the majority of the carries and could be a wild card for a good game against Jacksonville.

Rudi Johnson, RB – Detroit Lions – Johnson saw limited action in the Lions first two games, both losses, to the Falcons and Packers. Since then he’s averaged 5.5 yards per carry, ran for 83 yards against the 49ers last week, and even scored Detroit’s only touchdown in the game on a 34 yard screen pass. All of which has earned him the starting nod from head coach Rod Marinelli. The Lions’ schedule includes some tough matchups for Johnson, as they will face some of the better rushing defenses in the NFL ahead, but the good news is that Jon Kitna is not afraid to throw to Johnson, who can be just as dangerous catching the ball out of the backfield as running it. This should come in handy against teams like the Vikings that are stout against the run, but porous in the passing game. If Johnson breaks through into the secondary of a team like Minnesota, he’s a likely bet to score. Johnson should be a decent fantasy play as Detroit’s starter the rest of the way as a solid RB2.

Stock Down

Brian Griese, QB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Griese’s passer rating has fallen all the way down to 62.5 over the last two weeks, primarily due to the six interceptions he has thrown (three in each game), two of which nearly cost the Bucs their wins had it not been for some timely defensive play. He’s been even worse than Jeff Garcia was during their opening day loss to the Saints, when his passer rating was 71.3, causing coach Jon Gruden to make a change. The Denver Broncos and their terrible, 31^st ranked pass defense are this week’s opponent, so Griese should have a good game if he can minimize the mistakes. However, Gruden has already started to give Garcia and Luke McCown some reps with the first team offense, so Griese’s leash could be rather short and a change could be coming. No matter what, you really don’t want Griese on your fantasy squad if he is going to continue throwing the ball to the wrong team.

Todd Heap, TE – Baltimore Ravens - From 2001-2006, Heap was one of the more productive tight ends in the game, with his best season coming in 2005 when he caught seven touchdown passes and amassed 855 yards from 75 receptions. Last season was a wash out for Heap due to injury, but he came into 2008 completely healthy and primed for a good season. While rookie Joe Flacco’s passing thus far has killed Ravens receivers from a fantasy standpoint, it seems Flacco has completely forsaken his once prolific tight end. Three games into the season, Heap has all of three catches for 37 yards, one of which he fumbled and lost no less. The Ravens’ schedule is a tough one, and Flacco will continue to struggle when he plays against some of the better defenses he will face as the season progresses, making it even less likely that Heap will see many passes, let alone the end zone. If you were hoping a healthy Heap was going to provide your fantasy squad some help from the TE slot, you can pretty much forget it.

Dallas Cowboys Secondary – Terence Newman was beaten like a rented cornerback in the Redskins game, with two short touchdown passes thrown to his side of the field. He also was beaten on a 53-yard pass play to Santana Moss that set up a field goal. In fact, Moss had a huge day overall, with 8 receptions for 145 yards, several on Newman’s side of the field, though cornerback Anthony Henry was also burned regularly. And that’s not the first bad day for the Dallas secondary, as Green Bay WR Greg Jennings had a 100-yard day against them in Week 3. They’ve surrendered a 50+ yard play in each of their last three games. Also of concern is the play of free safety Patrick Watkins, who blew his assignment on several plays, including one that led to a passing touchdown. He was also the player deemed responsible for the key penalty for twelve men on the field, which allowed the Redskins to kill three additional minutes of clock time and kick the winning field goal. In addition, the Redskins also ran for a total of 165 yards, with Clinton Portis becoming the first running back to gain more than 100 yards against the Cowboys defense in 18 games. As a unit they don’t have a single interception this season, and have only recovered two fumbles. If the Cowboys are going to be the Super Bowl contender that so many believe they are, they will need to resolve these issues in the secondary, or face the possibility that they will lose more games to teams that will exploit what appears to be a real weakness.