Tony Romo is good, but he's nowhere near perfect.

In last week’s Musings I offered evidence that turnovers are the difference maker in the talent-neutral, parity-for-all, sport that the NFL has become. If you look closely at the teams that have been winning in these early weeks of the season, by and large you will find that when all else is fairly equal, it’s the teams that minimize mistakes and capitalize on their opponent’s mistakes that come away with the win. With that thought in mind, let’s take a look at one team, their quarterback, and the first five games. Then I’ll tell you why I think they will lose this week.

The reason I’m picking on the Dallas Cowboys is precisely because so many prognosticators have anointed them the most likely Super Bowl Champions this season. When I look at the Cowboys though, I see a completely different picture. It all begins and ends with their quarterback. Now don’t get me wrong; I happen to think Tony Romo is a very talented player. He has a strong arm, gets rid of the ball quickly, and has the mobility to evade the pass rush and improvise when the pocket collapses. The rap on Romo is a proclivity for throwing interceptions.

Through the first five games of this season, Romo has thrown five interceptions, one in each game. He has also lost two fumbles. Dallas opponents have capitalized on those seven turnovers and converted them into 29 points. The Cowboys have been very fortunate to have lost only one game when you consider that their quarterback is spotting opponents almost six points a game.

There are several reasons for Romo’s problems, most of which are beyond his control. One thing he can fix is his decision making on the field. Romo needs to develop a better sense of when the game plan is not working, and get away from trying to force the ball to his primary receiver. Seventeen targets to Terrell Owens are completely unnecessary in any game. Especially when you consider the many other weapons at his disposal. Instead of lobbing incompletes, or throwing interceptions when trying to thread the needle in double or triple coverage; he needs to throw the ball away and try for a better play on the next down. Which brings us to the real source of the problem.

Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is not utilizing the players to take advantage of their strengths. In the game against the Redskins, he called 47 passing plays. When you have Marion Barber (4.2 yds/carry) and Felix Jones (9.0 yds/carry) it really isn’t necessary to throw the ball 47 times unless you’re behind by several touchdowns to a strong defensive team. The Cowboys were only down by one touchdown at most in the first half against the Redskins, except for about two minutes near the end of the second quarter when they were briefly down by 10 points. The problem wasn’t that they couldn’t run the ball; Barber had a 15-yard gain on one of his eight carries. For some reason they felt compelled to go for the big gain on virtually every possession, which more often than not, ended in three downs and a punt.

Romo is ill suited to that kind of game, and the Cowboys offense would do well to try a more balanced attack. Garrett should try to establish the running game with Barber and Jones, and use the threat of the long bomb to Owens to stretch the field for the running game. Jason Witten, Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin should be utilized in the short passing game when opposing defenses get too blitz happy or cut short the running attack. The only time Romo should be throwing long to Owens is when he spots man-to-man coverage or a mismatch in the secondary that will leave T.O. wide open. Garrett will cut down Romo’s interception rate if he utilizes the weapons at his disposal properly, and stops trying to win every game with one big play. Control the tempo of the game, and control the clock should be Garrett’s mantra. Until he realizes this, the Cowboys offense will continue to struggle in close games, forcing the defense to spend too much time on the field. Which brings up another issue of the Cowboys, and the reason I think they will lose this week.

The Cardinals don’t have half the running game that the Cowboys do. But, what they do have is an explosive air attack. Kurt Warner has racked up some serious yardage against teams with a weak secondary. As I also pointed out last week, the Dallas secondary has been very beatable this season. All those points that have scored after a Romo turnover, have come because of the Cowboys very soft secondary, despite the presence of Pro-Bowl cornerback Terence Newman, and the addition of Adam “Pacman” Jones, which was supposed to shore up one of the weak spots from last season. They have given up at least one 50-yard+ gain on a pass play in all but one game. The safeties haven’t exactly done a good job containing the pass, rushing the passer, or even stopping the run.

This week, Newman is out, as is strong safety Roy Williams, and Jones is embroiled in another team distracting controversy. Combine those factors with the 36 points per game that the Cardinals average at home and all the conditions are ripe for a team like Arizona to steal a win from right under the Cowboys noses. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Arizona Cardinals will take at least two turnovers by the Cowboys and convert them into scores. I can’t say with any certainty whether they will be field goals or touchdowns. But if I were a gambling man, I’d put my money on the Cardinals to win this one outright, not because they will play great, but because the Cowboys and Tony Romo will continue to utilize poor judgment in their game planning and execution, leading to turnovers and points for the Cardinals.

Quick hits and other random thoughts for Week 6:

Too bad Carson Palmer is going to miss a chance for a big game this week against the Jets, who have allowed an average of 265 passing yards per game, 31^st in the NFL. Chris Perry is not enough of a threat against the Jets run defense to make me think Ryan Fitzpatrick can do as much damage as Palmer would have. Meanwhile, Thomas Jones of the Jets should finally get some yardage on the ground against the Bengals who are ranked 29th against the run. Don’t expect a score though.

Matt Cassell and the New England Patriots play the San Diego Chargers who are 32^nd in the NFL with 265.6 yard allowed per game on average. Randy Moss will finally catch a few touchdown passes this week, and Cassell will be a viable replacement QB.

Adrian Peterson of the Vikings should have a big game running on the Lions, and Willis McGahee of the Ravens should romp against the league worst Indy run defense.

This week’s scoring bonanza should be the Washington Redskins-St. Louis Rams game. Clinton Portis, Jason Campbell, Chris Cooley, and the rest of the Redskins should enjoy their best statistical game of the season to date.

The Dolphins should win themselves another game, as the Texans remain winless. Watch out for the Wildcat! Ronnie Brown will throw a score and run at least one in.

Finally, the Giants will remain undefeated in a Monday night romp against the Browns. Eli Manning will continue to look like Peyton Manning, while Peyton continues to look more human and less like a superstar with each passing week (weak?).

Stock Up

Kyle Orton – QB, Chicago Bears – As crazy as it sounds, Lovie Smith and the Bears front office chose wisely in making Orton the starting quarterback. Of course, his competitor was Rex Grossman, and there was no way Smith was going down that road again. Besides, Orton has improved a great deal, especially when it comes to reading defenses and picking up the blitz. He’s been sacked 11 times, but Grossman was sacked 16 times after five games last season, with virtually the same offensive line. Another big difference has been the play of rookie running back Matt Forte, who has made the Bears running game a real threat again. Teams are keying on Forte, stacking the box and leaving the secondary exposed to Orton who has clearly gotten more comfortable throwing the ball downfield. As long as Forte keeps the running game stable, Orton should continue to be successful. Of the remaining 11 games on the Bears’ schedule, only three are with teams that have a decent pass defense, and matchups with the Vikings (twice), St. Louis, and Detroit make Orton an excellent fantasy QB play for most of the remaining season.

Ronnie Brown – RB, Miami Dolphins – Every expert of note warned fantasy managers to avoid Ronnie Brown in drafts this season citing his reconstructed knees and the elevation of Ricky Williams to the starting slot. In addition, many thought that the Dolphins of 2008 would not be much better than the 1-15 team of last year, making Brown a total waste of time. For most of the pre-season and the first two games of the regular season, they looked to be right. Oh boy how things have changed. Tony Sparano unleashed the Wildcat offensive formation on the New England Patriots, and then did it again to the San Diego Chargers; suddenly the Dolphins are a team to fear, and Ronnie Brown is tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns. The Dolphins schedule is littered with teams that could be abused by the Wildcat, and Brown could easily end up being the top fantasy quarterback unless one of them figures out how to stop it. In the meantime, Brown owners should sit back and enjoy the ride. If there is any chance you can wrest him away from your opponents in a trade, go ahead and do it. You won’t regret it.

Lee Evans – WR, Buffalo Bills – Evans is a notoriously slow starter, usually not hitting his stride until mid season, but not this year. After five games he has 16 receptions for 432 yards and two touchdowns, one in each of his last two games. Evans and Trent Edwards have developed an excellent rhythm, hooking up on several long plays. When Edwards went down with a concussion last week against Arizona, Evans hooked up with J.P Losman on an 87 yard TD reception. Defenses have been double teaming Evans as much as ever, but when they blitz Edwards they leave Evans in man-to-man coverage, and Edwards has gotten better at picking this up and getting the ball down field to Evans. With the Bills playing their best football in several years, and Edwards continuing to develop as a strong quarterback, Evans could have a career season this year. Target him in a trade if you can, as he will likely continue to put up great reception and touchdown totals.

Stock Down

Laurence Maroney—RB, New England Patriots - As my colleague, Tom Casale, pointed out in his New World Order column this week, Maroney drew the ire of Patriot coaches, teammates, and fans when he pulled up a yard short on a second down and six run, scampering out of bounds with only one defender near by. It was obvious to anyone watching that he could have dropped his shoulder and drove for at least another yard to get the first down, but chose not to. He has always had a reputation for dancing too much behind the line of scrimmage and missing his holes, but avoiding a hit was not something you’d expect from Maroney. Overall he’s been a fantasy bust similar to early last season. However, unlike last season when he came on strong towards the end of the year, this season is shaping up to be a complete washout. So far he has just 28 carries for 93 yards and a 3.3 yd/carry average. Against the 49ers he had just 10 carries for 26 yards, which pretty much makes him useless for fantasy purposes. Between the (alleged) shoulder injury, Bill Belichick’s running back by committee, and Maroney’s image as a weak runner, he’s become expendable and not worth the use of a roster spot.

Chris Perry – RB, Cincinnati Bengals – Perry hasn’t exactly set the world on fire after being given the starting running back job when the Bengals ran Rudi Johnson out of town. He’s averaging just 2.8 yards per carry and has only two touchdowns. Granted, he’s played against some of the better run defenses early in the season, but the Bengals schedule isn’t going to get any easier. The real worry with Perry is his tendency to fumble the football. He’s fumbled five times in the first five games, losing possession on three of them. In fact, Perry’s fumble against the Cowboys probably ended any chance the Bengals had to pull off an upset. To make matters worse, the Bengals signed free agent running back Cedric Benson, who was given ten carries against the Cowboys just five days after joining the team. He managed 3.0 yds/carry, which already makes him a better option, plus he didn’t fumble the ball. They also brought Kenny Watson back after letting him go to clear room for Chris Henry. Neither Watson nor Benson will steal Perry’s job, but expect them both to take some touches away, diminishing Perry’s fantasy value even more.

Deion Branch – WR, Seattle Seahawks - Branch made his season debut with the Seahawks last week against the Giants catching three passes for 37 yards, including a 17- grab. However, all that action took place in the first quarter, then Branch’s big comeback ended abruptly when he injured his right heel and finished the rest of the game on the bench. The diagnosis is a severely bruised heel, which will sideline him indefinitely. Branch’s last full season of games was in 2005 when he was with the Patriots. He played 14 games in ’06, and 11 games in ’07, and it appears he will play even fewer games this year. Even when healthy he was only good for four or five touchdowns over the course of a season, so if you’re hoping for big production from Branch, think again.