Is Andre Johnson headed for a fall with Matt Schaub injured?

Well, the middle of the season has come and gone, and week after week I’ve been giving you advice; taking stock as it were, in the Stock Up and Stock down portion of my column. Since we’re heading down the home stretch so to speak, I thought it might be a good time to take a look back at some of the recommendations I’ve made to see just how I’m doing this season.

In Week One I recommended Darren Sproles to have a breakout season, and thought it would be smart to handcuff him to LaDanian Tomlinson. For the most part that’s been a pretty good call. I also forecast a breakout for David Patten, a prediction that might have been right had he not gotten hurt again. Joe Flacco has been a servicable, if unspectacular quarterback for the Ravens, but not a very good fantasy quarterback. I did better with Stock Down that week, as I correctly predicted that Willis McGahee would miss several weeks, and that Tatum Bell and Chris Simms would remain unemployed despite several teams needs at their respective positions.

Made the right call on Ahman Green back in Week Two, as he has clearly been a washout for the most part. The same goes for Matt Hasselbeck, albeit for different reasons. You may recall that at the time many of his weapons were injured, and it looked as though his season would be difficult at best. Needless to say, with the exception of a couple of good games, he’s had a terrible season and is now injured himself. In that same week I predicted Bo Scaife’s big year, and while he’s played well, it’s been far from a big year. Oh well.

I made up for a bad Week Two the following week when I called for big numbers from Kurt Warner, who is currently one of the top three quarterbacks in the fantasy realm. I also called for some big games from WR Anthony Gonzalez of the Colts, and some bad games from the Colts defense. The Colts defense has generally been awful, and Gonzalez had the first of what will end up being several big games just this past week against the Patriots. If you have Gonzalez hang in there, the best is yet to come. Larry Johnson’s demise was also predicted in that Week Three column. Just remember you heard it here first, OK?

The end of Derek Anderson’s starting days were predicted in Week Four, and I also nailed the fact that Vince Young would not start another game this season way back then. My streak of good predictions (or good luck?) continued with Matt Jones, who has gone on to nab 45 receptions and rack up 524 yards for the Jaguars. Billy Miller has also done well as proscribed in Week Four, although he hasn’t found the end zone, so I wasn’t completely on target. I did make one bad call that week, as I said Matt Schaub was on his way to the scrap heap, and would be replaced by Sage Rosenfels. He went on to have several very good games; it’s too bad he’s hurt now.

If I could be as right as I was in Week Five all the time, man I could rule the fantasy world. My Stock Up candidates that week were, Deuce McAlister, Mewelde Moore, and, um, Rudi Johnson. OK, cancel the coronation. But two out of three ain’t bad folks. McAlister is now your starter down in New Orleans and Moore will be getting his fourth start for Pittsburgh this week. Both of them have put up very good stats and been useful fantasy plays. Johnson has been a bust since getting the Lions starting job. Then again, if you’re relying on any Lions player, your fantasy team is in more trouble than I can possibly help. Did fairly well with the Stock Downs that week, and Todd Heap remains insignificant, Brian Griese remains on the sidelines, and the Cowboys secondary remains absolutely awful.

I didn’t get any of my Stock Up predictions right during Week Six. Although, Kyle Orton has done pretty well, he is still not a good fantasy play. Of course, now he is hurt anyway. Ronnie Brown’s stock has only gone down since he exploded for five touchdowns against the Patriots. The Wildcat formation isn’t fooling anyone any more. I guess I did get something right after all; Lee Evans has had some very good weeks for the Bills. As bad as Stock Up was that week, Stock Down was kick ass. The demise of Laurence Maroney, Chris Perry, and Deion Branch were all dead-on baby.

Week Seven had some my best predictions of the year (if I do say so myself), but it also had one of my worst. Steve Breaston of the Cardinals has been one of fantasy’s biggest surprises of the season. Even the return of Anquan Boldin hasn’t curbed his productivity. I definitely called that one right. However, that same week I had DeAngelo Williams listed in the Stock Down section as a poor play for Week Eight. Well, he had his first 100-yard game of the season against Arizona and generally made me look bad. Oops! Can’t get ‘em all right folks. Otherwise, that was a pretty strong week for me, as I had predictions about Bernard Berrian and Dominic Rhodes that were pretty darn good. I also had musings about Selvin Young and Patrick Crayton that have so far been accurate.

Week Eight saw me place Jerious Norwood in the Stock Down column, and then he went out and had his best game of the season. I have to admit that I have him on my fantasy squad and I’m getting frustrated with his lack of production. I shouldn’t have allowed that to color my opinion. I accurately predicted Edgerrin James’ demise in that column, and that is more right that I thought it would be. He appears to be completely finished in Arizona. I have to admit that I chose some easy Stock Up candidates in Week Eight. Maurice Jones-Drew, Willis McGahee, and Cedric Benson were all obvious slam-dunks. I promise not to get that lazy again.

To sum it all up, I believe I’ve done a fairly good job, getting things right about 75% of the time. In all I made 48 predictions over the first eight weeks, and pretty much called it right with 39 of them. While I am tempted to say that’s good enough, the ultimate goal is to get it all right, all the time. You have my word that I will continue to work towards 100% perfection with those Stock assessments. Let’s get to this week’s and see if I can start off the second half with a few good predictions.

Stock Up

Brady Quinn, QB – Cleveland Browns – Head Coach Romeo Crennel finally got smart and put Quinn on the field. It’s a move that many thought he should have made last season once the Browns were out of the running, but give him credit for choosing the Broncos and their dreadful secondary for Quinn’s debut. Although the Browns ultimately lost, Quinn had them in a position to win the game with a strong performance. From a fantasy perspective, Quinn could be a decent play during at least three of the last seven weeks of the season, especially Week 15 against the Bengals. So he may be worth stashing on your bench in case you need an injury replacement.

Malcolm Floyd, WR – San Diego Chargers – Floyd has stepped in for the injured Buster Davis and done a yeoman’s job for the Chargers, gaining the trust of quarterback Philip Rivers, especially in the red zone. He’s a tall drink of water at 6’5” and he uses his height well, ala Randy Moss, to snatch passes away from defenders. With Davis nursing a groin injury and Chris Chambers iffy from week to week, Floyd could continue to get some chances to play. Stash him away on your bench and keep an eye on Chambers’ status. If Chambers sits, Floyd will play and be worth a shot as a flex or WR3 option.

Byron Leftwich and Mewelde Moore - QB & RB – Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers find themselves in a bit of a bind heading into this week’s game against the Indianapolis Colts. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been unable to practice for most of the week due to a sore shoulder and running back Willie Parker is once again banged up; it doesn’t look like either of them is going to play. Leftwich took over in the second half last week when Roethlisberger couldn’t finish and completed 7 of 10 passes for 129 yards and leading two scoring drives to win the game. Moore has been a revelation for the Steelers in stepping in for Parker and averaging 101 yards rushing in his three starts. Against the Redskins, Moore still contributed three key receptions for 45 yards even though Parker played. Both Leftwich and Moore could end up being the starters this weekend and would be decent plays against a greatly diminished Colts defense.

Stock Down

Ryan Torain RB - Denver Broncos – There were lots of touts giving Torain a thumbs up when it was announced that he’d be the starter in Denver, and they looked to be right during Thursday’s game against Cleveland. Torain racked up 68 yards on 12 carries and scored a touchdown in the early going. But in the second quarter he was forced to leave with what appeared to be a serious knee injury. Early word out of Denver is that it’s a torn ACL. You don’t need me to tell you that it likely spells the end of Torain’s season. You ought to know better than to invest a waiver pick on a Denver running back anyway.

Matt Hasselbeck QB - Seattle Seahawks – Each week lame duck head coach Mike Holmgren waxes optimistic that Matt Hasselbeck will return to the practice field, and this week was no exception. Except that this week we heard that Hasslebeck was going to play with the scout team. Needless to say it hasn’t happened yet. Hasslebeck has been out with a bulging disc that is weakening his leg strength. Holmgren claims that the quarterback’s strength is returning, but this sounds like a smokescreen. Look, bulging discs that are pressing on nerves to the point of muscular weakness don’t just go away, and muscular strength doesn’t just come back. Until Hasselbeck gets the problem fixed he is not going to be able to play football. Don’t get rid of him yet, but don’t count on him returning this season either. I think a better bet is that he goes on injured reserve before Thanksgiving. Get ready for lots of Seneca Wallace.

Andre Johnson WR - Houston Texans – Just when it looked like Johnson was going to once again be one of the top receivers in the game, boom, down goes Matt Schaub and out goes the rapport the two have built over the past five weeks. With Schaub now out of action for up to a month, Johnson will again be taking his passes from Sage Rosenfels. While Johnson will still get a fair amount of looks, Rosenfels simply does not have the talent and ability to get the ball down field to Johnson like Schaub, and his numbers will suffer for it. He goes from a WR1 down to more like a WR2, or even 3. This will be especially true this week when the Texans face the tough Baltimore Ravens defense.