If Lilly keeps up his pace, he’ll be worth the $40 million the Chicago Cubs splashed out over four years

Last year it was Bronson Arroyo. In 2007, Ted Lilly is the guy mowing down National League hitters after a handful of largely forgettable seasons in the junior circuit. 

If Lilly keeps up his pace, he’ll be worth the $40 million the Chicago Cubs splashed out over four years last winter to secure the southpaw’s services. Arroyo had his doubters last year at this time too, but maintained his early-season excellence through all of 2006.

“It takes time to adjust to a guy like Lilly,” MLB handicapper Rob Veno says. “NL batters haven’t seen him for the most part and he throws an extremely tough curve.”

He notes Lilly’s improved control, suggesting that he or someone on the Cubs’ coaching staff might have corrected something in his mechanics. Veno cites Oliver Perez’s recent control under the tutelage of New York Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson as an example of such an improvement this year.

“We don’t know that (about Lilly),” Veno admits, “but you wonder what’s happening when you see a guy who’s walked batters all his life with numbers like his.”

Lilly had 120 AL starts with the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays from 2003 through 2006. He posted an ERA of 4.48, a 1.39 WHIP, struck out 7.5 batters while walking 3.8 every nine innings and coughed up a home run every 6.8 innings.

The mediocrity of those numbers makes Lilly’s NL stats through nine starts shocking. His ERA has dropped to 2.69 and he has an 0.93 WHIP. The strikeouts are only marginally up at 8.1 per nine innings, but the walks (1.5 per 9/IP) and home runs (one every 20.1 innings) are way, way down.

It hasn’t translated to big cash for Chicago backers yet, who are down 0.96 units over Lilly’s starts, but the numbers are too good to ignore as he prepares to face another AL castoff in Derek Lowe at Dodger Stadium on tonight.

Lilly hasn’t started since last Friday, but manager Lou Piniella flipped his rotation around after calling up Sean Marshall this week. Add Rich Hill to the equation and the Cubs’ rotation suddenly features three lefties.

“They have their reasons,” Lilly told the Chicago Daily Herald about being held back an extra day to split up the southpaws. “There are people who make decisions who’ve been around the game a lot longer than I have.”

Tonight marks the first time this year Lilly will have faced the Los Angeles Dodgers, which might give him an edge he won’t have later in the season.

“You do worry about him in his second time around the league,” Veno says. “He pitches half his games in a difficult park, the summer’s coming on and you wonder if NL batters will get accustomed to the big breaking ball of his.”

There’s a plus side for everyone but Cubs fans if Lilly does get rocked in the second half this year: it might prevent NL general managers from offering eight-digit salaries to mediocre starters this winter. God help us all if Lilly keeps up the good work. 

Opening pitch at Dodger Stadium won’t be thrown until 10:40 p.m. ET on Friday night. The Dodgers are listed as -120 home favorites with the total set at 7 1/2.