If you said, "home teams as small favorites," you're a winner. But if you look even closer you'll see a repeating number: the home team listed as 3-point favorite. The home side has been 2- to 4-point favorites in 11 of the first 17 games this exhibition calendar.

“In general, home-field advantage is worth about 3 points in the preseason and regular season,” Covers Expert Steve Merril confirms.

OK, with that mind, oddsmakers must think the competition is close to dead even among the league’s 32 teams, right? Wrong.

Linesmakers say the passive nature of preseason lowers the separation between a good team and a bad team. Since starters see only limited playing time and coaches are indifferent to the final score at this time of year, books have to be cautious.

“When it gets to the end of the game, I don’t know if it’s a pressing matter to try to score, let only win," says John Avello, director of race and sports operations for Wynn Las Vegas.

He says it boils down to the quality of players on the field at the end of the game. "I know they can’t execute,” Avello says. 

This brings us back to the magic number: three. Because of all the uncertainty surrounding preseason, bettors are given generic lines and lower wager limits so that linesmakers don't get caught with their pants down.

“We normally start at a pick and go as high as 4,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club consulting service in Las Vegas. “You will see more 3s because the range of numbers is much smaller (in the preseason).”

Last preseason, home teams were favored by three or less in 28 of 65 games. Away teams went 12-14-2 against the spread and 11-17 straight up.

Korner says there are some things oddsmakers and sharp bettors follow closely such as playing time for starters and coaches on the hot seat. Still you won’t see any double-digit pointspreads in August. No team has been given more than 6 points this year, and 7 was the most last year.

“The problem we come across is we’ve got to have the lines out early every week and if a bettor gets information later in the week he can take advantage of the early line,” line consultant Keith Glantz explains. “That’s why you’ll see books move lines without hesitation because of one large bet.”

Monday’s game between the Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers serves as evidence. Books had the game bouncing back and forth over a key number.

“I started at 2 ½, then moved to 3, then back to 2 ½,” Avello says. “I would normally never do something like that, but I have no problem doing it in the preseason.”

So if 3 points is the starting number, is that solely because of the home-field advantage?

“I know home field doesn’t mean as much right now,” Avello says. “It means something but only because you’re familiar with the locker room, field, etcetera. Not the home crowd though.”

Merril says there are specific edges that home teams have in the preseason that they wouldn’t have in the regular season.

“Scheduling can play more of a role in the preseason as teams play on different days (Thursday, Friday, Saturday) and often have to travel on just four or five days rest, which is something that rarely happens during the regular season.”

This is a valid point. The Miami Dolphins played the Jacksonville Jaguars on Saturday and will travel to Missouri to play the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday. The line for the game ... you guessed it: Chiefs favored by 3 points.

So is there a way bettors can exploit the no-brainer football lines?

“I think there is some value in fading the 3-point policy,” Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach says. “Quite frankly, an oddsmaker may look at a game and say it’s a toss up so he just assigns the home team with a line of –3. I feel this can offer some situations of solid value.

“Maybe the way a team approaches the preseason makes them a play on or play against so that we can take advantage of the pre-set pointspreads.