| Preseason worth... |
| By Joe Duffy |
Published
08/28/2007
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Gaming Theory
| Unrated
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Joe Duffy
Joe Duffy is the CEO of Offshore Insiders and head handicapper of Dream Team at GodsTips. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show among several others.
View all articles by Joe Duffy
Preseason results are worthless according to Duffy...
Preseason results are worthless in predicting the spread winners in NFL gambling. The Indianapolis Colts are 2-12 straight up their last 14 exhibition contests. During that span, they became the first team in NFL history to begin 9-0 in consecutive seasons.
While in the NBA and MLB, exhibition results are actually a good warning of which teams will come out of the gate quickly or slowly, making the first 10 days of MLB easy pickings on underdogs, not so in the NFL. The Colts have won 14-of-16 September games outright.
From 1992-95, Dallas was 49-15 in the regular season, winning three Super Bowls. Their preseason mark in those years was 7-12-1.
While appearing in four Super Bowls from 1990-93, Buffalo was also 49-15 in regular season contests. In practice contests: 6-12.
Ben Roethlisberger was abysmal in the 2005 preseason. All he did after that was--in Bob Griese, Joe Montana, Tom Brady fashion--efficiently direct the Pittsburgh Steelers to Super Bowl victory.
One of the biggest myths in successful sports gambling comes from the squares who claim sharp players don’t bet preseason football. Those who bet on sports for a living know accurate motivational and key player rotation information is obtainable.
However the actual results hold no value in beating the regular season NFL odds. Even the Roethlisberger example showed focusing on key players will often result in false positives or negatives.
A comparable player at a comparable point in his career is a good example. Arizona is a great candidate to be this year’s Cinderella. It call comes down to how far their young signal caller Matt Leinart has progressed.
What can we deduce from his mixed preseason performance? Sports wagering NFL experts will tell you, “nothing”.
Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, is enemy No. 1 at the sports books. His premium plays and expert advice can be had there as part of sports service GodsPicks.
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