| Key Stats for Conference Championship Games... |
| By Joe Duffy |
Published
11/28/2007
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NCAAF
| Unrated
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Joe Duffy
Joe Duffy is the CEO of Offshore Insiders and head handicapper of Dream Team at GodsTips. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show among several others.
View all articles by Joe Duffy
Handicapping the Conference Championships
From the standpoint of the sports better, the staff of OffshoreInsiders.com breaks down some key statistical comparisons for the conference championship games.
MAC
Central Michigan-Miami Ohio
The Chippewas have the upper hand in most offensive categories, but the RedHawks have the statistical advantage defensively.
CMU amasses 78.9 more total yards per game on .7 more yards per play. One of the more prominent areas is in rushing yards per attempt where Central has the edge by 1.1. Miami Ohio though relies much more on the big play. Despite completing 11.2 percent less of their passes, the RedHawks get 1.7 more passing yards per reception.
On defense, it’s Miami with a superiority of 94.3 fewer yards allowed per game on .8 less yards per play. They also allow a completion percentage of 7.2 less.
Conference USA
Tulsa-Central Florida
It’s yet another contest where one team has a fairly significant edge on offense, while the other gets the numbers their way on defense. Offensively, Tulsa has a yards per game pre-eminence if 124.9 total yards per game. But it’s because of 181.4 yards per game passing difference as UCF rushes for 56.5 more yards per game. The Golden Hurricanes do average 1.2 more yards per play, a telling statistic say most top gamblers.
However, likewise UCF accrues .5 more yards per rush, but Tulsa 2.3 more yards per pass and 3.6 more yards per catch.
The Golden Knights allow 102.1 fewer yards on .9 less yards per play allowed. Perhaps the biggest numerical disparity is in turnover ratio. Tulsa is -7, but UCF +5, a net advantage of 12 for Central.
ACC
Virginia Tech-Boston College
Although BC has an edge of 105.5 more total yards per game, Tech rushes for 27.8 extra yards. The Eagles get 7.6 more first downs per game. In the ever important yards per play category, it’s Boston College getting .7 more. Tech though has a pretty significant numerical dominance of 1.1 more yards per catch.
On defense, the check marks favor V Tech by 48.7 total yards per game and .4 yards per play. BC though allows 20.6 fewer rushing yards on a few half-yard less per attempt. The Hokies have a huge turnover margin upper hand by 10.
SEC
Tennessee-LSU
Numerically, the Tigers are better on both sides of the ball. LSU gets 44.8 more yards per game, though the Vols accumulate 27.8 more passing yards. The biggest discrepancy is in passing yards per reception where LSU gets 2.0 more. With Tennessee completing 7.3 higher percent of the passes, the overall offensive upper hand for LSU is fairly nominal.
Defensively LSU permits 121.8 fewer yards on 1.2 less yards per play. Tennessee is less vulnerable to the big play, allowing 1.3 fewer passing yards per attempt. LSU has a turnover ratio better by 12.
Big 12
Oklahoma-Missouri
These two teams are fairly close on paper. In fact, while Mizzou gets 49.8 more yards per game, Oklahoma accumulates .3 more yards per play. Oklahoma has the edge in both rushing yards per attempt and passing yards per attempt by .2 and 1.4 respectively and they also get 2.4 more passing yards per reception.
Also the Sooners have slight edges in most defensive categories including yards per game of 56.2 and .4 fewer yards per play allowed. Yet the Tigers allow .1 less passing yards per attempt and .4 less passing yards per reception.
By popular request, OffshoreInsiders.com brought back the college and NFL football-only packages through the Super Bowl for both Joe Duffy’s GodsTips and Stevie Vincent. Get the rest of the season beginning now just in time for Green Bay-Dallas and the conference championship games. Get it at OffshoreInsiders.com
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